Fault rupture directivity of large earthquakes in Himalaya

The paper examines the predominant fault rupture directivity during large earthquakes in different sectors of the Himalaya which influences strong ground motion and damage scenario. The nature of the faulting of earthquakes vis-à-vis their rupture directivity has been discussed. It is found that the rupture directivity near the Indo-Eurasian plate boundary varies from place to place i.e. either along the strike direction of the faults or at right angles to it. The secondary meizoseismal areas as observed for 1505 Dharchula, 1803 Uttarakhand, 1905 Kangra earthquakes in the Himalaya and 2001 Bhuj earthquake in stable continental region suggest that they are a fairly good indicator of predominant rupture directivity since the latter accentuates the site response up to a longer distance. The resulting larger ground motions, therefore, need to be incorporated in the design of engineering structures by suitable modifications in the BIS code.     

GIS-based landslide susceptibility evaluation using fuzzy-AHP multi-criteria decision-making techniques in the Abha Watershed,Saudi Arabia

Landslides are natural geological disasters causing massive destructions and loss of lives, as well as severe damage to natural resources, so it is essential to delineate the area that probably will be affected by landslides. Landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) is making increasing implications for GIS-based spatial analysis in combination with multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) methods. It is considered to be an effective tool to understand natural disasters related to mass movements and carry out an appropriate risk assessment. This study is based on an integrated approach of GIS and statistical modelling including fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP), weighted linear combination and MCE models. In the modelling process, eleven causative factors include slope aspect, slope, rainfall, geology, geomorphology, distance from lineament, distance from drainage networks, distance from the road, land use/land cover, soil erodibility and vegetation proportion were identified for landslide susceptibility mapping. These factors were identified based on the (1) literature review, (2) the expert knowledge, (3) field observation, (4) geophysical investigation, and (5) multivariate techniques. Initially, analytical hierarchy process linked with the fuzzy set theory is used in pairwise comparisons of LSM criteria for ranking purposes. Thereafter, fuzzy membership functions were carried out to determine the criteria weights used in the development of a landslide susceptibility map. These selected thematic maps were integrated using a weighted linear combination method to create the final landslide susceptibility map. Finally, a validation of the results was carried out using a sensitivity analysis based on receiver operator curves and an overlay method using the landslide inventory map. The study results show that the weighted overlay analysis method using the FAHP and eigenvector method is a reliable technique to map landslide susceptibility areas. The landslide susceptibility areas were classified into five categories, viz. very low susceptibility, low susceptibility, moderate susceptibility, high susceptibility, and very high susceptibility. The very high and high susceptibility zones account for 15.11% area coverage. The results are useful to get an impression of the sustainability of the watershed in terms of landsliding and therefore may help decision makers in future planning and mitigation of landslide impacts.     

Examining the rainfall–topography relationship using non-stationary modelling technique in semi-arid Aseer region,Saudi Arabia

The mountainous region of Aseer, corresponding to the Afromontane phytogeographic region, is an eco-sensitive zone and has complex relationship between topography and rainfall. The region is located inland of the red sea escarpment edge in the west. Therefore, rainfall can occur during any month of the year in the mountain of the high Aseer region when moist air forces up the escarpment from the red sea. Monitoring the rainfall data and its topographical elevation variable in Aseer region is an essential requirement for feasible and accurate rainfall-based data for different applications, such as hydrological and ecological resource management in rugged terrain and remote areas. The relationship of elevation and rainfall are spatially non-stationary, non-linear, scale dependent, and often modelled by conventional regression models. Therefore, a local modelling technique, geographically weighted regression (GWR), was applied to deal with non-stationary, non-linear, scale-dependent problems. The GWR using topoclimatic data (elevation and rainfall) to analyse the cumulative rainfall data for rainy months (March to June) of the 4 years estimated from CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations) product for Aseer region. The bandwidth (scale-size) of the Aseer region rainfall–elevation relationship has stabilised at round off 12 km. By selecting the suitable bandwidth, the spatial pattern of the rainfall–elevation relationship was significantly enhanced by using the GWR than the traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model. GWR local modelling techniques estimated well in terms of accuracy, predictive power and decreased residual autocorrelation. Additionally, GWR assesses the significance of local statistic at each location and identified the location of spatial clusters with local regression coefficients significantly improved as compared with global OLS model, thereby highlighting local variations. Therefore, the GWR, local modelling approach managed to produce more accurate estimates by taking into account local characteristics.     

Timescales associated with climate change and their relevance in adaptation strategies

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that induce changes in the Earth’s climate affect particular variables and locations differently. A key part of this difference is the timescale at which this change takes place, which will eventually have important consequences for adaptation requirements. This idea of timescale associated with climate change has been used several times in the past to estimate the urgency of adaptation in particular regions. The definition of climate-change timescale is, however, not unique. For example, we can think of it in terms of an expected trend (e.g. in temperature) reaching a given threshold, or think of it in terms of the time it may take this trend to become statistically significant. We may also wonder about the validity of this speculation given that, due to natural variability, the expected trend may in fact not be realized. In this article we explore alternative ways of defining the timescale of climate-change, compare their properties, and illustrate them with an example for the case of projected surface temperature over North America. It is shown that these timescales are analytically related but may differ substantially in magnitude under certain conditions. In particular, it is shown that climate change impact on vulnerable systems may arrive before statistical detection of the variable’s trend takes place. This fact may have implications on how climate change impacts are seen by those with diverging interests.     

Two‐dimensional nonlinear diffusive numerical simulation of geomorphic modifications to cinder cones

The temporal evolution of simple landforms such as cinder cones by nonlinear diffusive processes is studied through the use of a new 2D numerical model using well‐established and accurate numerical mathematics and high‐resolution digital elevation models (DEMs). Extending 1D (profile) nonlinear diffusion analyses used in cinder cone, hillslope and fault scarp evolution studies, we have implemented a 2D numerical model with a spatially and temporally varying sediment transport rate coefficient scaled nonlinearly by the ratio of local slope to critical slope. The high accuracy and efficient numerical implementation are documented in the paper and the MATLAB toolkit developed is used to solve for the developmentof an initial 2D cone form. First, we examine the nonlinear transport rule and suggest a refinement that accounts explicitly for flux at threshold slopes. We find that the maximum diffusion (necessarily introduced in the numerical model to avoid infinite rates) at the critical slope controls the final morphology, especially approaching steady state. Secondly, solving the landscape evolution problem in 2D enables a natural accounting for sediment flux convergence or divergence in the profile. Thirdly, the boundary behavior of a given landscape element controls much of what happens in that domain and so we allow for arbitrary flux magnitude or elevation boundary conditions. Fourthly, landscapes are heterogeneous in their surface cover and so we allow for spatially and temporally varying transport rate k and we permit an arbitrary vertical displacement field within the model domain. To test the new formulation for the nonlinear term, the effect of variable diffusivity k and the numerical schemes implemented, we apply the model to cinder cones built on the flanks of Mount Etna in 2001 and 2002–2003. We explore the effects of DEM resolution with data from the 2001 cone and the utility of spatially variable diffusivity to explain the variation in erosion measured by differencing repeat light detection and ranging (LIDAR) surveys gathered in 2004 and 2007 over the 2002–2003 cone complex. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An assessment of seismicity parameters in northwest Himalaya and adjoining regions

In this study, an assessment of seismicity parameters in the northwest Himalaya and adjoining regions using an earthquake catalog from India Meteorological Department covering a period from June 1, 1998 to June 30, 2011 has been carried out. The spatial distributions of seismicity parameters, namely magnitude of completeness, M _C, a value, b value, and correlation fractal dimension, D _C, are estimated for the studied region. The M _C, a, and b values are found to be 2.5, 4.601, and 0.83, respectively. Despite significant gaps, the spatial distributions of a and b values are seen to follow similar trend and are found scattering in between Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and South Tibet Detachment, adjoining areas of Mahendragarh-Dehradun Fault (MDF), Delhi-Haridwar Ridge (DHR) and Moradabad Fault (MF), and the southern flank of Karakoram Fault and Indus-Tsangpo Suture Zone. The estimated spatial distribution of b and a values is within 90 % of confidence level, thereby indicating non-uniform stress accumulation or higher rock fracturing density in the studied region caused by strong tectonization following several earthquakes. Negative correlation between low b value and high D _C is observed predominantly in the region between the MBT and Munsiari Thrust or Main Central Thrust-I of Garhwal and Kumaon Himalaya, adjoining zones of MDF, DHR, and MF of Indo-Gangetic plain, and the eastern flank of the studied region, suggesting the presence of asperities in the zone. At the same time, active creeping process can be inferred in between the MBT and Main Central Thrust of Garhwal Himalaya and the surrounding areas of Shimla region of the Himalayan arc to the northwestern part of the studied region from the positive correlation between b value and D _C. The results indicate that the structural heterogeneity caused by different stress accumulation and rock fracturing densities exists due to continuous tectonic adjustments between different geomorphic features of the studied region. An attempt has also been made to classify the studied region into smaller seismic zones by observing the spatial patterns of b value and D _C that are fractal properties of the observed seismicity, along with the prevalent fault networks.     

Tectono-stratigraphic evolution of an inverted extensional basin: the Cameros Basin (north of Spain)

The Cameros Basin is a part of the Mesozoic Iberian Rift. It is an extensional basin formed during the late Jurassic and early Cretaceous, in the Mesozoic Iberian Rift context, and it was inverted in the Cenozoic as a result of the Alpine contraction. This work aims to reconstruct the tectono-stratigraphic evolution of the basin during the Mesozoic, using new and revised field, geophysical and subsurface data. The construction of a basin-wide balanced section with partial restorations herein offers new insights into the geometry of the syn-rift deposits. Field data, seismic lines and oil well data were used to identify the main structures of the basin and the basin-forming mechanisms. Mapping and cross-sectional data indicate the marked thickness variation of the depositional sequences across the basin, suggesting that the extension of the depositional area varied during the syn-rift stage and that the depocentres migrated towards the north. From field observation and seismic line interpretation, an onlap of the depositional sequences to the north, over the marine Jurassic substratum, can be deduced. In the last few decades, the structure and geometry of the basin have been strongly debated. The structure and geometry of the basin infill reconstructed herein strongly support the interpretation of the Cameros Basin as an extensional-ramp synclinal basin formed on a blind south-dipping extensional ramp. The gradual hanging-wall displacement to the south shifted the depocentres to the north over time, thus increasing the basin in size northwards, with onlap geometry on the pre-rift substratum. The basin was inverted by means of a main thrust located in a detachment located in the Upper Triassic beds (Keuper), which branched in depth with the Mesozoic extensional fault flat. The reconstruction of the tectono-stratigraphic evolution of the Cameros Basin proposed herein represents a synthesis and an integration of previous studies of the structure and geometry of the basin. This study can be used as the basis for future basin-scale research and for modelling the ancient petroleum system of the basin.     

On the Photometric Error Calibration for the Differential Light Curves of Point-like Active Galactic Nuclei

It is important to quantify the underestimation of rms photometric errors returned by the commonly used APPHOT algorithm in the IRAF software, in the context of differential photometry of point-like AGN, because of the crucial role it plays in evaluating their variability properties. Published values of the underestimation factor, η, using several different telescopes, lie in the range 1.3–1.75. The present study aims to revisit this question by employing an exceptionally large data set of 262 differential light curves (DLCs) derived from 262 pairs of non-varying stars monitored under our ARIES AGN monitoring program for characterizing the intra-night optical variability (INOV) of prominent AGN classes. The bulk of these data were taken with the 1-m Sampurnanad Telescope (ST). We find η?=?1.54±0.05 which is close to our recently reported value of η?=?1.5. Moreover, this consistency holds at least up to a brightness mismatch of 1.5 mag between the paired stars. From this we infer that a magnitude difference of at least up to 1.5 mag between a point-like AGN and comparison star(s) monitored simultaneously is within the same CCD chip acceptable, as it should not lead to spurious claims of INOV.