Toward a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe

The Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project, which began in June 2009, aims at establishing new standards for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Euro-Mediterranean region. In this context, a logic tree for ground-motion prediction in Europe has been constructed. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and weights have been determined so that the logic tree captures epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction for six different tectonic regimes in Europe. Here we present the strategy that we adopted to build such a logic tree. This strategy has the particularity of combining two complementary and independent approaches: expert judgment and data testing. A set of six experts was asked to weight pre-selected GMPEs while the ability of these GMPEs to predict available data was evaluated with the method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3234?C3247, 2009). Results of both approaches were taken into account to commonly select the smallest set of GMPEs to capture the uncertainty in ground-motion prediction in Europe. For stable continental regions, two models, both from eastern North America, have been selected for shields, and three GMPEs from active shallow crustal regions have been added for continental crust. For subduction zones, four models, all non-European, have been chosen. Finally, for active shallow crustal regions, we selected four models, each of them from a different host region but only two of them were kept for long periods. In most cases, a common agreement has been also reached for the weights. In case of divergence, a sensitivity analysis of the weights on the seismic hazard has been conducted, showing that once the GMPEs have been selected, the associated set of weights has a smaller influence on the hazard.     

Structural vibration reduction using self-tuning fuzzy control of magnetorheological dampers

Among the control devices considered for dissipating seismic energy and reducing structural vibrations is the magnetorheological (MR) damper which consists of a hydraulic cylinder filled with a suspension of micron-sized, magnetically polarizable iron particles capable of reversibly changing from free-flowing, linear viscous fluid to semi-solid with the application of a magnetic field. Several algorithms have been proposed for regulating the amount of damping provided by MR dampers. An attractive option is the use of fuzzy controllers because they are simple, intrinsically robust, and they do not depend on a model of the system. Tuning of these controllers, however, has shown to be a difficult task because of the large number of parameters involved. This paper proposes a self-tuning fuzzy controller to regulate MR dampers’ properties and reduce structural responses of single degree-of-freedom seismically excited structures. Robustness to changes in seismic motions and structural characteristics was assessed by subjecting a rigid and a flexible building to different earthquake records. Results show that the self-tuning controller proposed effectively reduced responses of both structures to all earthquakes considered. In addition, results were compared to those of a fuzzy controller with constant scaling factors and to those of two passive strategies: “passive on” and “passive off”, where the current to the MR dampers was set to its maximum allowable value, and zero, respectively.     

Use of Geophysical and Remote Sensing Data for Assessment of Aquifer Depletion and Related Land Deformation

An integrated approach [field, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), hydrogeology, geodesy, and spatial analysis] was adopted to identify the nature, intensity, and spatial distribution of deformational features (sinkholes, fissures, differential settling) reported over fossil aquifers in arid lands, their controlling factors, and possible remedies. The Lower Mega Aquifer System (area 2 × 10⁶ km²) in central and northern Arabia was used as a test site. Findings suggest that excessive groundwater extraction from the fossil aquifer is the main cause of deformation: (1) deformational features correlated spatially and/or temporally with increased agricultural development and groundwater extraction, and with a decline in water levels and groundwater storage (? 3.7 ± 0.6 km³/year); (2) earthquake events (years 1985–2016; magnitude 1–5) are largely (65% of reported earthquakes) shallow (1–5 km) and increased from 1 event/year in the early 1980s (extraction 1 km³/year), up to 13 events/year in the 1990s (average annual extraction > 6.4 km³). Results indicate that faults played a role in localizing deformation given that deformational sites and InSAR-based high subsidence rates (? 4 to ? 15 mm/year) were largely found within, but not outside of, NW–SE-trending grabens bound by the Kahf fault system. Findings from the analysis of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment solutions indicate that sustainable extraction could be attained if groundwater extraction was reduced by 3.5–4 km³/year. This study provides replicable and cost-effective methodologies for optimum utilization of fossil aquifers and for minimizing deformation associated with their use.     

Aspects of bridge-ground seismic response and liquefaction-induced deformations

Considerable bridge-ground interaction effects are involved in evaluating the consequences of liquefaction-induced deformations. Due to seismic excitation, liquefied soil layers may result in substantial accumulated permanent deformation of sloping ground near the abutments. Ultimately, global response is dictated by the bridge-ground interaction as an integral system. However, a holistic assessment of such response generally requires a highly demanding full three-dimensional (3D) model of the bridge and surrounding ground. As such, in order to capture a number of the salient involved mechanisms, this study focuses on the longitudinal seismic performance of a simpler idealized configuration, motivated by details of an existing bridge-ground configuration. In this model, a realistic multilayer soil profile is considered with interbedded liquefiable/nonliquefiable strata. The effect of the resulting liquefaction-induced ground deformation is explored. Attention is given to overall deformation of the bridge structure due to lateral spreading in the vicinity of the abutments. The derived insights indicate a need for such global analysis techniques, when addressing the potential hazard of liquefaction and its consequences.     

Observed spectrum in the South China Sea during storms

Ocean Dynamics - The present work focuses on the measured wave spectrum in the South China Sea (scs) during storms. The measured spectra have been obtained from surface elevation measurements...     

Quantifying threats to groundwater resources in the Republic of Maldives Part II: Recovery from tsunami marine overwash events

Marine overwash events are among the most serious short‐term threats to groundwater supply of small coral islands. During such events, seawater can inundate small islands partially or completely, causing salinization of the aquifer. A comprehensive knowledge of freshwater lens recovery is essential for water planners on these islands. In this study, a numerical modelling approach is used to quantify recovery of the freshwater lens on 4 islands of the Maldives after a tsunami‐induced overwash event similar to that experienced from the Indian Ocean earthquake in December 2004. The islands vary in size (0.2 to 10.1 km²) and span the climatic regions of the Maldives. A tested 3‐dimensional SEAWAT groundwater model for each island is used to simulate the recovery process. Recharge rates from historical rainfall data and from global climate models are imposed on each island during the post‐overwash recovery period. The effect of groundwater pumping on lens recovery also is examined. Results show abrupt decrease in fresh groundwater volumes for each island, followed by recovery that is significantly influenced by island size and recharge patterns. Overall, salinization is more widespread on small islands (<1 km²), but recovery is more rapid than for large islands. Between 50% and 90% of lens recovery occurs after 2 years for small islands (<1 km²) whereas only 35% and 55% for large islands. Imposing pumping rates required to sustain the local population lengthened the recovery time between 5% and 15%, with smaller islands having the higher percentage. However, the governing factor on recovery time is the spatial extent of land surface inundation by the overwash event, with wave height and duration of the event having a negligible impact. A strong relationship exists between required recovery time and island surface area, thereby providing a method to determine recovery time for other atoll islands not investigated in this study with similar geologic structure. Our results can be used to aid in managing water resources during the post‐overwash period.     

The Dichotomy of the Mass-radius Relation and the Number of Globular Clusters

Astronomy Letters - Globular clusters $$(GCs)$$ are among the oldest stellar systems in the early universe. We present galaxies formed with two different stellar populations, which depend on the...     

Petrogenesis of post-collisional Middle Eocene volcanism in the Eastern Pontides (NE,Turkey): Insights from geochemistry,whole-rock Sr-Nd-Pb isotopes,zircon U-Pb and 40Ar-39Ar geochronology

The debate about whether Eocene magmatism is considered to be post-collisional or subduction-related or not still continues. Here we offer new ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar ad U-Pb zircon geochronology, mineral chemistry, bulk rock and Sr-Nd-Pb isotope geochemistry data obtained from the southern dike (SD) suite, in comparison with the northern dike (ND) suite, from the Eastern Pontides. The geochronological data indicate that the SD suite erupted between 45.89 and 45.10 Ma corresponding to the Lutetian (Middle Eocene). The magmas of the ND suite are characterised by slightly more alkaline affinity compared to the SD suite. The trace and rare earth element (REEs) content of the SD suite is characterised by large ion lithophile element (LILEs; Sr, K₂O, Ba, Rb) enrichment and depletion of Nb, Ta, and TiO₂ elements to different degree with high Th/Yb ratios, which indicate that the magmas forming the SD and ND suites were derived from lithospheric mantle sources enriched by mostly slab-derived fluids in the spinel stability field. The Sr, Nd and Pb radiogenic isotope ratios of the dikes support the view that the magma for the hydrous group (H-SD) was derived from a relatively more enriched mantle source than the other SD and ND suites. The ND suite and the anhydrous group (A-SD) display similar geochemical features characterised by moderate light earth element (LREE)/heavy rare earth element (HREE) ratios, while the H-SD group has respectively lower LREE/HREE ratios indicating higher melting degree. Detailed considerations of the alkalinity, enrichment and partial melting degree for the source of the studied volcanic rocks indicate that the magmas of the northern dike suite are characterised by slightly more alkaline affinity, whereas the magmas throughout the southern dike suite show increments in the enrichment rate and melting degree. In light of the obtained data and comparative interpretations, the geodynamic evolution and differences in petrogenetic character of the Lutetian magmas from both the northern and southern parts of the Eastern Pontides may be explained by different degrees of melting of a net veined mantle source initially metasomatized by mostly subduction fluids during asthenospheric upwelling due to fragmented asymmetric delamination in a post-collisional extensional tectonic environment.     

Variable Mass Body Motion in the Perturbed Robes Configuration

Astronomy Reports - This paper presents the motion properties of the smallest body, which is moving inside the spherical shell filled with homogeneous incompressible viscous fluid, and also assumes...     

Dynamical Properties of Body with Variable Mass in a Fifth-degree Hénon–Heiles System

Astronomy Reports - The aim of this work is to investigate the motion properties of the infinitesimal body in the frame of the fifth-degree generalized Hénon–Heiles (GHH) potential. We...