Is public awareness and perceived threat of climate change associated with governmental mitigation targets?

Social scientists and science communicators are concerned about the apparent discrepancy between the scientific consensus on climate change (Anderegg et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:12107–12109, 2010; Doran and Zimmerman EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 90:22–3, 2009) and the general public’s views (Knight Environ Sociol 2:101–113, 2016; Lee et al. Nat Clim Chang 5:1014–1020, 2015). It is reasoned that increased public awareness and perceived threat of climate change may pressure governments to enact policy to counteract climate change (e.g. setting stringent carbon emissions targets). Despite a logical link between public awareness and government-set emissions targets, this relationship remains untested. We examined the relationship between public awareness about and perceived threat of climate change and governmental emissions targets across 71 countries and 1 region. We found a positive association between the proportions of a country’s population that are aware of climate change and the unconditional emissions reduction targets set by that country in the Paris Agreement (Rogelj et al. Nature 534:631–639, 2016). However, the proportion of people in a country who perceive climate change as a personal threat was not associated with higher emissions reduction targets. Our results suggest that public awareness may be an important part of garnering the public support required for policies designed to mitigate climate change to succeed.     

A longer-term perspective on soil moisture,groundwater and stream flow response to the 2018 drought in an experimental catchment in the Scottish Highlands

The drought of summer 2018, which affected much of Northern Europe, resulted in low river flows, biodiversity loss and threats to water supplies. In some regions, like the Scottish Highlands, the summer drought followed two consecutive, anomalously dry, winter periods. Here, we examine how the drought, and its antecedent conditions, affected soil moisture, groundwater storage, and low flows in the Bruntland Burn; a sub-catchment of the Girnock Burn long-term observatory in the Scottish Cairngorm Mountains. Fifty years of rainfall-runoff observations and long-term modelling studies in the Girnock provided unique contextualisation of this extreme event in relation to more usual summer storage dynamics. Whilst summer precipitation in 2018 was only 63% of the long-term mean, soil moisture storage across much of the catchment were less than half of their summer average and seasonal groundwater levels were 0.5 m lower than normal. Hydrometric and isotopic observations showed that ~100 mm of river flows during the summer (May-Sept) were sustained almost entirely by groundwater drainage, representing ~30% of evapotranspiration that occurred over the same period. A key reason that the summer drought was so severe was because the preceding two winters were also dry and failed to adequately replenish catchment soil moisture and groundwater stores. As a result, the drought had the biggest catchment storage deficits for over a decade, and likely since 1975–1976. Despite this, recovery was rapid in autumn/winter 2018, with soil and groundwater stores returning to normal winter values, along with stream flows. The study emphasizes how long-term data from experimental sites are key to understanding the non-linear flux-storage interactions in catchments and the “memory effects” that govern the evolution of, and recovery from, droughts. This is invaluable both in terms of (a) giving insights into hydrological behaviours that will become more common water resource management problems in the future under climate change and (b) providing extreme data to challenge hydrological models.     

Implications of measurement metrics on soil freezing curves: A simulation of freeze–thaw hysteresis

Soil freeze–thaw events have important implications for water resources, flood risk, land productivity, and climate change. A property of these phenomena is the relationship between unfrozen water content and sub-freezing temperature, known as the soil freezing characteristic curve (SFC). It is documented that this relationship exhibits hysteretic behaviour when frozen soil thaws, leading to the definition of the soil thawing characteristic curve (STC). Although explanations have been given for SFC/STC hysteresis, the effect that ‘scale’ – particularly ‘measurement scale’ – may have on these curves has received little attention. The most commonly used measurement scale metric is the ‘support’, which is the spatial (or temporal) unit within which the measured variable is integrated or soil volume sampled. We show (a) measurement support can influence the range and shape of the SFC and (b) hysteresis can be attributed, in part, to the support and location of the measurements comprising the SFC/STC. We simulated lab measured temperature, volumetric water content (VWC), and permittivity from soil samples undergoing freeze–thaw transitions using Hydrus-1D and a modified Dobson permittivity model. To assess the effect of measurement support and location on SFC/STC, we masked the simulated temperature and VWC/permittivity extent to match the instrument's support and location. By creating a detailed simulation of the intra- and inter-support variability associated with the penetration of a freezing front, we demonstrate how measurement support and location can influence the temperature range over which water freezing events are captured. We show it is possible to simulate hysteresis in homogenous media with purely geometric considerations, suggesting that SFC/STC hysteresis may be more of an apparent phenomenon than mechanistically real. Lastly, we develop an understanding of how the location and support of soil temperature and VWC/permittivity measurements influence the temperature range over which water freezing events are captured.     

The impacts of mountain pine beetle disturbance on the energy balance of snow during the melt period

Mountain snowpacks provide most of the annual discharge of western US rivers, but the future of water resources in the western USA is tenuous, as climatic changes have resulted in earlier spring melts that have exacerbated summer droughts. Compounding changes to the physical environment are biotic disturbances including that of the mountain pine beetle (MPB), which has decimated millions of acres of western North American forests. At the watershed scale, MPB disturbance increases the peak hydrograph, and at the stand scale, the ‘grey’ phase of MPB canopy disturbance decreases canopy snow interception, increases snow albedo, increases net shortwave radiation, and decreases net longwave radiation versus the ‘red’ phase. Fewer studies have been conducted on the red phase of MPB disturbance and in the mixed coniferous stands that may follow MPB‐damaged forests. We measured the energy balance of four snowpacks representing different stages of MPB damage, management, and recovery: a lodgepole pine stand, an MPB‐infested stand in the red phase, a mixed coniferous stand (representing one successional trajectory), and a clear‐cut (representing reactive management) in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest in Montana, USA. Net longwave radiation was lower in the MPB‐infested stand despite higher basal area and plant area index of the other forests, suggesting that the desiccated needles serve as a less effective thermal buffer against longwave radiative losses. Eddy covariance observations of sensible and latent heat flux indicate that they are of similar but opposite magnitude, on the order of 20 MJ m^?2 during the melt period. Further analyses reveal that net turbulent energy fluxes were near zero because of the temperature and atmospheric vapour pressure encountered during the melt period. Future research should place snow science in the context of forest succession and management and address important uncertainties regarding the timing and magnitude of needlefall events. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Travel time controls the magnitude of nitrate discharge in groundwater bypassing the riparian zone to a stream on Virginia's coastal plain

Groundwater that bypasses the riparian zone by travelling along deep flow paths may deliver high concentrations of fertilizer‐derived NO₃^? to streams, or it may be impacted by the NO₃^? removal process of denitrification in streambed sediments. In a study of a small agricultural catchment on the Atlantic coastal plain of Virginia's eastern shore, we used seepage meters deployed in the streambed to measure specific discharge of groundwater and its solute concentrations for various locations and dates. We used values of Cl^? concentration to discriminate between bypass water recharged distal to the stream and that contained high NO₃^? but low Cl^? concentrations and riparian‐influenced water recharged proximal to the stream that contained low NO₃^? and high Cl^? concentrations. The travel time required for bypass water to transit the 30‐cm‐thick, microbially active denitrifying zone in the streambed determined the extent of NO₃^? removal, and hydraulic conductivity determined travel time through the streambed sediments. At all travel times greater than 2 days, NO₃^? removal was virtually complete. Comparison of the timescales for reaction and transport through the streambed sediments in this system confirmed that the predominant control on nitrate flux was travel time rather than denitrification rate coefficients. We conclude that extensive denitrification can occur in groundwater that bypasses the riparian zone, but a residence time in biologically active streambed sediments sufficient to remove a large fraction of the NO₃^? is only achieved in relatively low‐conductivity porous media. Instead of viewing them as separate, the streambed and riparian zone should be considered an integrated NO₃^? removal unit. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Harvest patterns and effort dynamics of indigenous and non-indigenous commercial sectors of the eastern Torres Strait reef line fishery

The reef line fishery (RLF) in eastern Torres Strait (ETS) is unique in that it has both a commercial indigenous sector and a commercial non-indigenous sector. Recently, concerns have been expressed by all stakeholders about the long-term sustainability of the fishery. These concerns have been exacerbated by the lack of detailed catch and effort information from both sectors, which has precluded any formal assessment of the fishery. In this paper, we characterise the harvest patterns and effort dynamics of the indigenous and non-indigenous commercial sectors of the ETS RLF using a range of data sources including commercial logbooks, community freezer records, voluntary logbooks and observer surveys. We demonstrate that bycatch is a significant component of the catch for both sectors and identify substantial differences in harvest patterns and effort dynamics between the sectors. Differences between sectors were observed in species composition and spatial and temporal patterns in catch, effort and catch per unit effort. These results highlight the inherent variation in catch and effort dynamics between the two commercial sectors of the ETS RLF and provide valuable information for the development of future assessments and appropriate management strategies for the fishery. The more reliable estimates of harvest patterns and effort dynamics for both sectors obtained from observer surveys will also assist in resolving issues relating to allocation of reef fish resources in Torres Strait.     

Effects of antecedent moisture and macroporosity on infiltration and water flow in frozen soil

Infiltration into frozen soil plays an important role in soil freeze–thaw and snowmelt-driven hydrological processes. To better understand the complex thermal energy and water transport mechanisms involved, the influence of antecedent moisture content and macroporosity on infiltration into frozen soil was investigated. Ponded infiltration experiments on frozen macroporous and non-macroporous soil columns revealed that dry macroporous soil produced infiltration rates reaching 10³ to 10⁴ mm day⁻¹, two to three orders of magnitude larger than dry non-macroporous soil. Results suggest that rapid infiltration and drainage were a result of preferential flow through initially air-filled macropores. Using recorded flow rates and measured macropore characteristics, calculations indicated that a combination of both saturated flow and unsaturated film flow likely occurred within macropores. Under wet conditions, regardless of the presence of macropores, infiltration was restricted by the slow thawing rate of pore ice, producing infiltration rates of 2.8 to 5.0 mm day⁻¹. Reduced preferential flow under wet conditions was attributed to a combination of soil swelling, due to smectite-rich clay (that reduced macropore volume), and pore ice blockage within macropores. In comparison, dry soil column experiments demonstrated that macropores provided conduits for water and thermal energy to bypass the frozen matrix during infiltration, reducing thaw rates compared with non-macroporous soils. Overall, results showed the dominant control of antecedent moisture content on the initiation, timing, and magnitude of infiltration and flow in frozen macroporous soils, as well as the important role of macropore connectivity. The study provides an important data set that can aid the development of hydrological models that consider the interacting effects of soil freeze–thaw and preferential flow on snowmelt partitioning in cold regions.     

Geostatistical features of streambed vertical hydraulic conductivities in Frenchman Creek Watershed in Western Nebraska

This study evaluated the spatial variability of streambed vertical hydraulic conductivity (K_v) in different stream morphologies in the Frenchman Creek Watershed, Western Nebraska, using different variogram models. Streambed K_v values were determined in situ using permeameter tests at 10 sites in Frenchman, Stinking Water and Spring Creeks during the dry season at baseflow conditions. Measurements were taken both in straight and meandering stream channels during a 5 day period at similar flow conditions. Each test site comprised of at least three transects and each transect comprised of at least three K_v measurements. Linear, Gaussian, exponential and spherical variogram models were used with Kriging gridding method for the 10 sites. As a goodness-of-fit statistic for the variogram models, cross-validation results showed differences in the median absolute deviation and the standard deviation of the cross-validation residuals. Results show that using the geometric means of the 10 sites for gridding performs better than using either all the K_v values from the 93 permeameter tests or 10 K_v values from the middle transects and centre permeameters. Incorporating both the spatial variability and the uncertainty involved in the measurement at a reach segment can yield more accurate grid results that can be useful in calibrating K_v at watershed or sub-watershed scales in distributed hydrological models.     

Transient and Transition Factors in Modeling Permafrost Thaw and Groundwater Flow

Permafrost covers approximately 24% of the Northern Hemisphere, and much of it is degrading, which causes infrastructure failures and ecosystem transitions. Understanding groundwater and heat flow processes in permafrost environments is challenging due to spatially and temporarily varying hydraulic connections between water above and below the near-surface discontinuous frozen zone. To characterize the transitional period of permafrost degradation, a three-dimensional model of a permafrost plateau that includes the supra-permafrost zone and surrounding wetlands was developed. The model is based on the Scotty Creek basin in the Northwest Territories, Canada. FEFLOW groundwater flow and heat transport modeling software is used in conjunction with the piFreeze plug-in, to account for phase changes between ice and water. The Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) flow model is used to calculate ground temperatures and surface water balance, which are then used as FEFLOW boundary conditions. As simulating actual permafrost evolution would require hundreds of years of climate variations over an evolving landscape, whose geomorphic features are unknown, methodologies for developing permafrost initial conditions for transient simulations were investigated. It was found that a model initialized with a transient spin-up methodology, that includes an unfrozen layer between the permafrost table and ground surface, yields better results than with steady-state permafrost initial conditions. This study also demonstrates the critical role that variations in land surface and permafrost table microtopography, along with talik development, play in permafrost degradation. Modeling permafrost dynamics will allow for the testing of remedial measures to stabilize permafrost in high value infrastructure environments.