Social scientists and science communicators are concerned about the apparent discrepancy between the scientific consensus on climate change (Anderegg et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:12107–12109, 2010; Doran and Zimmerman EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 90:22–3, 2009) and the general public’s views (Knight Environ Sociol 2:101–113, 2016; Lee et al. Nat Clim Chang 5:1014–1020, 2015). It is reasoned that increased public awareness and perceived threat of climate change may pressure governments to enact policy to counteract climate change (e.g. setting stringent carbon emissions targets). Despite a logical link between public awareness and government-set emissions targets, this relationship remains untested. We examined the relationship between public awareness about and perceived threat of climate change and governmental emissions targets across 71 countries and 1 region. We found a positive association between the proportions of a country’s population that are aware of climate change and the unconditional emissions reduction targets set by that country in the Paris Agreement (Rogelj et al. Nature 534:631–639, 2016). However, the proportion of people in a country who perceive climate change as a personal threat was not associated with higher emissions reduction targets. Our results suggest that public awareness may be an important part of garnering the public support required for policies designed to mitigate climate change to succeed. 相似文献
Climate policy uncertainty significantly hinders investments in low-carbon technologies, and the global community is behind schedule to curb carbon emissions. Strong actions will be necessary to limit the increase in global temperatures, and continued delays create risks of escalating climate change damages and future policy costs. These risks are system-wide, long-term and large-scale and thus hard to diversify across firms. Because of its unique scale, cost structure and near-term availability, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD+) has significant potential to help manage climate policy risks and facilitate the transition to lower greenhouse gas emissions. ‘Call’ options contracts in the form of the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits from jurisdictional REDD+ programmes at a predetermined price per ton of CO2 could help unlock this potential despite the current lack of carbon markets that accept REDD+ for compliance. This approach could provide a globally important cost-containment mechanism and insurance for firms against higher future carbon prices, while channelling finance to avoid deforestation until policy uncertainties decline and carbon markets scale up.
Key policy insights
Climate policy uncertainty discourages abatement investments, exposing firms to an escalating systemic risk of future rapid increases in emission control expenditures.
This situation poses a risk of an abatement ‘short squeeze,’ paralleling the case in financial markets when prices jump sharply as investors rush to square accounts on an investment they have sold ‘short’, one they have bet against and promised to repay later in anticipation of falling prices.
There is likely to be a willingness to pay for mechanisms that hedge the risks of abruptly rising carbon prices, in particular for ‘call’ options, the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits at a predetermined price, due to the significantly lower upfront capital expenditure compared to other hedging alternatives.
Establishing rules as soon as possible for compliance market acceptance of high-quality emissions reductions credits from REDD+ would facilitate REDD+ transactions, including via options-based contracts, which could help fill the gap of uncertain climate policies in the short and medium term.
Rhenium–osmium geochronometry for samples with low Re and complex matrices requires improved Re extraction methods. Here, we investigate plausible controls on efficiency and efficacy of Re extraction during our anion resin bead purification. Four different protocols are compared, each isolating a single variable to test. Rhenium concentrations for solutions at each step of each protocol document differences in chemical recovery/yield. The negative‐thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (N‐TIMS) signal intensity serves as a proxy for Re yield and purity. These data document correlations between the N‐TIMS signal intensity and (a) the duration of anion resin bead conditioning prior to loading with Re‐bearing solution, and (b) both duration and strength of nitric acid used during rinsing of the Re‐loaded anion resin bead. The optimal protocol improved Re signal intensity around fourteen times compared with our current Re extraction protocol, an aggregate of 2.4 times improvement in chemical recovery (yield) and 5.8 times improvement in emission efficiency (purity). Repeated N‐TIMS isotopic measurements on our in‐house Re standard solution (1407) verify that our optimal protocol‐3 does not fractionate Re isotopes. The improved anion resin bead method considerably lowers the Re detection limit and allows Re‐Os isotopic analysis of picogram‐level Re hosted in geological samples with complex matrices. 相似文献
Permafrost covers approximately 24% of the Northern Hemisphere, and much of it is degrading, which causes infrastructure failures and ecosystem transitions. Understanding groundwater and heat flow processes in permafrost environments is challenging due to spatially and temporarily varying hydraulic connections between water above and below the near-surface discontinuous frozen zone. To characterize the transitional period of permafrost degradation, a three-dimensional model of a permafrost plateau that includes the supra-permafrost zone and surrounding wetlands was developed. The model is based on the Scotty Creek basin in the Northwest Territories, Canada. FEFLOW groundwater flow and heat transport modeling software is used in conjunction with the piFreeze plug-in, to account for phase changes between ice and water. The Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) flow model is used to calculate ground temperatures and surface water balance, which are then used as FEFLOW boundary conditions. As simulating actual permafrost evolution would require hundreds of years of climate variations over an evolving landscape, whose geomorphic features are unknown, methodologies for developing permafrost initial conditions for transient simulations were investigated. It was found that a model initialized with a transient spin-up methodology, that includes an unfrozen layer between the permafrost table and ground surface, yields better results than with steady-state permafrost initial conditions. This study also demonstrates the critical role that variations in land surface and permafrost table microtopography, along with talik development, play in permafrost degradation. Modeling permafrost dynamics will allow for the testing of remedial measures to stabilize permafrost in high value infrastructure environments. 相似文献
Identification of major nitrate sources that adversely impact groundwater quality in municipal well capture zones in areas of emerging nitrate contamination is essential to minimize leaching and prevent exceedance of the nitrate drinking water standard. Vertical profiles of nitrate leachate in deep soils provide an estimate of the amount of nitrate in transit beneath irrigated, row-cropped fields; depths of peak leachate; and the approximate rate of downward movement. Profiles of pore-water soil-nitrate concentrations in thick 60-feet (~18 m), fine-textured soils near Hastings, Nebraska clearly indicate that considerably more nitrate leached beneath furrow-irrigated than center-pivot irrigated fields. Peak leaching appeared to correlate with recorded periods of poor weather conditions during some growing seasons and may best be controlled by “spoon feeding” fertilizer to the crop through the sprinkler irrigation system at times of nutrient need. The presence of trace levels of atrazine and deethylatrazine to 60 feet (18 m) in core samples indicates that larger, more complex anthropogenic molecules also leach through the fine-textured soils. The light δ15NNO3 values in the surficial groundwater beneath fertilized and irrigated cropland indicate that ammonium fertilizer is a major N source and suggest that the natural soil-N contribution is negligible. δ15NNO3 values were most enriched in irrigation wells located within municipal well capture zones downgradient of a large feedlot. Dual isotope method (DIM) δ15NNO3 and δ18ONO3 values suggest that the Hastings’ municipal wells farther downgradient are contaminated with a mixture of nitrate from manure and commercial ammonium-based fertilizer. DIM values indicate an absence of denitrification, which has implications for long-term management of the water resources. 相似文献