Seismic displacements on shear surfaces in cohesive soils

The paper is concerned with the earthquake-induced displacements on pre-existing shear surfaces in cohesive soils. Results from ring shear tests have shown that during fast shearing the strength of such surfaces depends on displacement and rate of shearing. The test results have been used in a numerical analysis to assess the displacement of a rigid block sliding on a plane surface. The results from the analysis show that the earthquake-induced displacements on pre-existing shear surfaces are influenced significantly by the soil behaviour under earthquake loading conditions. The results are consistent with the field performance of pre-existing slides in cohesive soils during earthquakes.     

The role and disposition of military forces in the Russian Federation

The article discusses Russian motivation in the context of the restructuring of the military industrial complex and the new political districts of the former Soviet Union. It draws on Allison (1993) to describe the new military district structure, and considers what the combination of the boundaries of these areas indicates of Russian intentions for the future development of their forces and their relationship with the West. It goes on to consider the role of the media and of western political leaders in achieving images suitable for the identification of a peace dividend, and the repercussions of the situation as regards the future security of bi-polar relationships.     

Summary statistics in geochemistry: A study of the performance of robust estimates

Numerical data summaries in many geochemical papers rely on arithmetic means, with or without standard deviations. Yet the mean is the worst average (estimate of location) for those extremely common geochemical data sets which are non-normally distributed or include outliers. The widely used geometric mean, although allowing for skewed distributions, is equally susceptible to outliers. The superior performance of 19 robust estimates of location (simple median, plus various combined, adaptive, trimmed, and skipped,L, M, andW estimates) is illustrated using real geochemical data sets varying in sources of error (pure analytical error to multicomponent geological variability), modality (unimodal to polymodal), size (20 to >2000 data values), and continuity (continuous to truncated in either or both tails). The arithmetic mean tends to overestimate location of many geochemical data sets because of positive skew and large outliers; robust estimates yield consistent smaller averages, although some (e.g., Hampel's and Andrew's) do perform better than others (e.g., Shorth mean, dominant cluster mode). Recommended values for international standard rocks, and for such important geochemical concepts as average chondrite, can be reproduced far more simply via robust estimation on complete interlaboratory data sets than via the rather complicated and subjective methods (e.g., laboratory ratings) so far used in the literature. Robust estimates also seem generally less affected by truncation than the mean; for example, if values below machine detection limits are alternatively treated as missing values or as real values of zero, similar averages are obtained. The standard (and mean) deviations yield consistently larger values of scale for many geochemical data sets than the hinge width (interquartile range) or median absolute deviation from the median. Therefore, summaries of geochemical data should always include at least the simple median and hinge width, to complement the often misleading mean and standard deviation.     

Hydrologic history of the Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers based upon a refined specific‐gauge approach

A refined specific‐gauge approach was developed to quantify changes over time in hydrological response on 3260 km of the Mississippi River system using long‐term data observed at 67 hydrologic measurement stations. Of these stations, 49 were unrated (stage‐only) stations, for which over 2 000 000 ‘synthetic discharges’ were generated based on measured discharge values at nearby rated stations. The addition of these synthetic discharges nearly tripled the number of stations in the study area for which specific‐gauge analysis could be performed. In order to maintain spatial homogeneity across such a broad study area, discharges were normalized to multiples of mean daily flow (MDF). Specific‐gauge analysis calculates stage changes over time for invariant discharge conditions. Two discharges were analysed: low‐flow and flood conditions at each station. In order to avoid the large errors associated with extrapolation of annual rating curves, a new ‘enhanced interpolation’ technique was developed that calculates continuous specific‐stage time series, even for rare discharges. Thus enhanced, specific‐gauge analysis is a useful reconnaissance tool for detecting geomorphic and hydrologic trends over time. Results show that on the Middle Mississippi River and Lower Missouri River, flood stages increased at all stations in spite of widespread incision of the river bed. On the Lower Mississippi River, both low‐flow and flood stages decreased, mainly the result of artificial meander cutoffs in the late 1920s and 1930s, except downstream of Natchez, MS, where net aggradation was observed. On the Upper Mississippi River, the specific‐gauge trends were dominated by emplacement of navigational dams and impoundment of slackwater pools. On all four river reaches, these results document hydrologic responses to the different engineering toolkits used on the different portions of the Mississippi River system during the past 75–150 years. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Holocene sea-surface temperature and precipitation variability in northern Patagonia, Chile (Jacaf Fjord, 44°S)

A high-resolution multi-proxy study including the elemental and isotopic composition of bulk organic matter, land plant-derived biomarkers, and alkenone-based sea-surface temperature (SST) from a marine sedimentary record obtained from the Jacaf Fjord in northern Chilean Patagonia (44°20′S) provided a detailed reconstruction of continental runoff, precipitation, and summer SST spanning the last 1750 yr. We observed two different regimes of climate variability in our record: a relatively dry/warm period before 900 cal yr BP (lower runoff and average SST 1°C warmer than present day) and a wet/cold period after 750 cal yr BP (higher runoff and average SST 1°C colder than present day). Relatively colder SSTs were found during 750–600 and 450–250 cal yr BP, where the latter period roughly corresponds to the interval defined for the Little Ice Age (LIA). Similar climatic swings have been observed previously in continental and marine archives of the last two millennia from central and southern Chile, suggesting a strong latitudinal sensitivity to changes in the Southern Westerly Winds, the main source of precipitation in southern Chile, and validating the regional nature of the LIA. Our results reveal the importance of the Chilean fjord system for recording climate changes of regional and global significance.     

The importance of distribution types on finite element analyses of foundation settlement

We investigate the effects of using different types of statistical distributions (lognormal, gamma, and beta) to characterize the variability of Young’s modulus of soils in random finite element analyses of shallow foundation settlement. We use a two-dimensional linear elastic, plane-strain, finite element model with a rigid footing founded on elastic soil. Poisson’s ratio of the soil is considered constant, and Young’s modulus is characterized using random fields with extreme values of the scale of fluctuation. We perform an extensive sensitivity analysis to compare the distributions of computed settlements when different types of statistical distributions of Young’s modulus, different coefficients of variation of Young’s modulus, and different scales of fluctuation of the random field of Young’s modulus are considered. A large number of realizations are employed in the Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the influence of the tails of the statistical distributions under study. Results indicate the type of distribution considered for characterization of the random field of Young’s modulus can have a significant impact on computed settlement results. In particular, considering different types of distributions of Young’s modulus can lead to more than 600% differences on computed mean settlements for cases with high coefficient of variation and large scale of fluctuation of Young’s modulus. The effect of considering different types of distributions is reduced, but not completely eliminated, for smaller coefficients of variation of Young’s modulus (because the differences between distributions decrease) and for small values of the scale of fluctuation of Young’s modulus (because of an identified “averaging effect”).     

Spectral analysis and design approach for high force‐to‐volume extrusion damper‐based structural energy dissipation

High force‐to‐volume extrusion damping devices can offer significant energy dissipation directly in structural connections and significantly reduce seismic response. Realistic force levels up to 400 kN have been obtained experimentally validating this overall concept. This paper develops spectral‐based design equations for their application. Response spectra analysis for multiple, probabilistically scaled earthquake suites are used to delineate the response reductions due to added extrusion damping. Representative statistics and damping reduction factors are utilized to characterize the modified response in a form suitable for current performance‐based design methods. Multiple equation regression analysis is used to characterize reduction factors in the constant acceleration, constant velocity, and constant displacement regions of the response spectra. With peak device forces of 10% of structural weight, peak damping reduction factors in the constant displacement region of the spectra are approximately 6.5 ×, 4.0 ×, and 2.8 × for the low, medium, and high suites, respectively. At T = 1 s, these values are approximately 3.6 ×, 1.8 ×, and 1.4 ×, respectively. The maximum systematic bias introduced by using empirical equations to approximate damping reduction factors in design analyses is within the range of +10 to ?20%. The seismic demand spectrum approach is shown to be conservative across a majority of the spectrum, except for large added damping between T = 0.8 and 3.5 s, where it slightly underestimates the demand up to a maximum of approximately 10%. Overall, the analysis shows that these devices have significant potential to reduce seismic response and damage at validated prototype device force levels. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.