Bi-level optimization for risk-based regional hurricane evacuation planning

Almost all engineering evacuation models define the objective as minimizing the time required to clear the region or total travel time, thus making an implicit assumption that who will or should evacuate is known. Conservatively evacuating everyone who may be affected may be the best strategy for a given storm, but there is a growing recognition that in some places that strategy is no longer viable and in any case, may not be the best alternative by itself. Here, we introduce a new bi-level optimization that reframes the decision more broadly. The upper level develops an evacuation plan that describes, as a hurricane approaches, who should stay and who should leave and when, so as to minimize both risk and travel time. The lower level is a dynamic user equilibrium (DUE) traffic assignment model. The model includes four novel features: (1) it refocuses the decision on the objectives of minimizing both risk and travel time; (2) it allows direct comparison of more alternatives, including for the first time, sheltering-in-place; (3) it uses a hurricane-scenario-based analysis that explicitly represents the critically important uncertainty in hurricane track, intensity, and speed; and (4) it includes a new DUE algorithm that is efficient enough for full-scale hurricane evacuation applications. The model can be used both to provide an evacuation plan and to evaluate a plan’s performance in terms of risk and travel time, assuming the plan is implemented and a specified hurricane scenario then actually occurs. We demonstrate the model with a full-scale case study for Eastern North Carolina.     

Deep structure of the northeastern margin of the Parnaiba Basin, Brazil, from magnetotelluric imaging

The magnetotelluric (MT) method has been applied to the determination of the deep resistivity structure of the northeastern margin of the Parnaiba Basin. Transient electromagnetic (TEM) and MT data were collected in early 1999 along a 95 km long N–S line, extending from the coast across the projected subcrop position of a discontinuous fault found to the west of the study area that is believed to be a possible basin‐bounding fault. The MT data were processed to yield the TE‐ and TM‐mode responses and then corrected for static shift using central‐loop and single‐loop TEM data, respectively. Regularized 2D MT inversion was subsequently undertaken using a structured initial model with the near‐surface constrained by TEM inversion results. As a consistency check, we performed another set of 2D inversions using different smooth initial models. The various optimal 2D inversion models show clearly the presence of a major basement trough, over 2 km deep, located about 70 km from the coast. We interpret it as possibly marking the main basin margin and suggest that it may have implications for groundwater resource development in the area.     

A three-dimensional finite-element model of wind effects upon higher harmonics of the internal tide

A non-linear three-dimensional unstructured grid model of the M₂ tide in the shelf edge area off the west coast of Scotland is used to examine the spatial distribution of the M₂ internal tide and its higher harmonics in the region. In addition, the spatial variability of the tidally induced turbulent kinetic energy and associated mixing in the area are considered. Initial calculations involve only tidal forcing, although subsequent calculations are performed with up-welling and down-welling favourable winds to examine how these influence the tidal distribution (particularly the higher harmonics) and mixing in the region. Both short- and long-duration winds are used in these calculations. Tidal calculations show that there is significant small-scale spatial variability particularly in the higher harmonics of the internal tide in the region. In addition, turbulence energy and mixing exhibit appreciable spatial variability in regions of rapidly changing topography, with increased mixing occurring above seamounts. Wind effects significantly change the distribution of the M₂ internal tide and its higher harmonics, with appreciable differences found between up- and down-welling winds and long- and short-duration winds because of differences in mixing and the presence of wind-induced flows. The implications for model validation, particularly in terms of energy transfer to higher harmonics, and mixing are briefly discussed.     

SDO Data Artifacts and Anticorrelation of Oscillations in the Sunspot Magnetic Field and Umbral Area

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The paper considers a special class of artifacts that appears in the useful signal when the source moves along a discrete matrix of the receiver. A parasitic component...     

Investigating the molecular systematic relationships amongst selected Plesionika (Decapoda: Pandalidae) from the Northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea

Despite the high number of species and ecological diversity of pandalid shrimps, there has been no previous attempt to resolve evolutionary relationships of several genera using molecular tools. Although mitochondrial DNA cytochrome oxidase I (COI) is widely used in barcoding studies to delimit species boundaries, additional insights into phylogenetic affinities can be obtained, especially when used in combination with data from additional genes. The knowledge of molecular diversity is essential to understand phylogenetic relationships and will help systematic clarifications. Based on partial fragments of the 16S and COI genes, we have focused specifically on addressing the systematic relationships of the economically and ecologically important shrimp genus Plesionika within a framework of five genera from within the Pandalidae. Our results showed that species within Plesionika are substantially divergent when compared with other genera, exhibiting the highest average nucleotide divergence, with 0.1123 and 0.0846 in COI and 16S genes, respectively. In addition, sequence divergence was found to vary greatly within the genus Plesionika (COI/16S): 0.0247/0.0016 between Plesionika antigai and Plesionika heterocarpus and 0.1616/0.098 between Plesionika heterocarpus and Plesionika edwardsii. We did not find amino acid sequence divergence between P. heterocarpus and P. antigai compared with P. heterocarpus and P. edwardsii (8.10%, K2P distance). Three species of Plesionika (P. antigai, P. heterocarpus and Plesionika scopifera) appear well separated from other Plesionika species in both maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses. The present study confirms the utility of COI over 16S as a genetic marker to resolve relationships between different species of Plesionika from the Northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea, in addition to species delimitation. The findings highlight the need to further review paraphyly within Plesionika in an attempt to recognize a concordance in the evolutionary history of Plesionika with major ecological and geological events.     

Gold–Telluride Mineralization in Pb–Zn–Fe Ores of the Aktash Skarn Deposit (Western Karamazar,Tajikistan)

Geology of Ore Deposits - The article describes magnetite–sulfide assemblages of minerals containing native gold and tellurides in the Pb–Zn–Fe ores of the Aktash skarn deposit in...     

Development of continental margins of the Atlantic Ocean and successive breakup of the Pangaea-3 supercontinent

Comparative tectonic analysis of passive margins of the Atlantic Ocean has been performed. Tectonotypes of both volcanic and nonvolcanic margins are described, and their comparison with other passive Atlantic margins is given. The structural features of margins, peculiarities of magmatism, its sources and reasons for geochemical enrichment of melts are discussed. The important role of melting of the continental lithosphere in the development of magmatism is demonstrated. Enriched EM I and EM II sources are determined for the lower parts of the volcanic section, and a depleted or poorly enriched source is determined for the upper parts of the volcanic section based on isotope data. The conclusions of the paper relate to tectonic settings of the initial occurrence of magmatism and rifting and breakup during the period of opening of the Mesozoic Ocean. It was found out that breakup and magmatism at proximal margins led only to insignificant structural transformations and reduction of the thickness of the ancient continental crust, while very important magmatic events happened later in the distal zone. New growth of magmatic crust at the stage of continental breakup is determined as a typical feature of distal zones of the margins under study. The relationship of development of margins with the impact of deep plumes as the source of magmatic material or a heat source only is discussed. Progradation of the zone of extension and breakup into the areas of cold lithosphere of the Atlantic and the formation of a single tectonomagmatic system of the ocean are under consideration.     

Fractionation of Cu and Zn isotopes during adsorption onto amorphous Fe(III) oxyhydroxide: Experimental mixing of acid rock drainage and ambient river water

Fractionation of Cu and Zn isotopes during adsorption onto amorphous ferric oxyhydroxide is examined in experimental mixtures of metal-rich acid rock drainage and relatively pure river water and during batch adsorption experiments using synthetic ferrihydrite. A diverse set of Cu- and Zn-bearing solutions was examined, including natural waters, complex synthetic acid rock drainage, and simple NaNO₃ electrolyte. Metal adsorption data are combined with isotopic measurements of dissolved Cu (⁶⁵Cu/⁶³Cu) and Zn (⁶⁶Zn/⁶⁴Zn) in each of the experiments. Fractionation of Cu and Zn isotopes occurs during adsorption of the metal onto amorphous ferric oxyhydroxide. The adsorption data are modeled successfully using the diffuse double layer model in PHREEQC. The isotopic data are best described by a closed system, equilibrium exchange model. The fractionation factors (α_soln-solid) are 0.99927 ± 0.00008 for Cu and 0.99948 ± 0.00004 for Zn or, alternately, the separation factors (Δ_soln-solid) are −0.73 ± 0.08‰ for Cu and −0.52 ± 0.04‰ for Zn. These factors indicate that the heavier isotope preferentially adsorbs onto the oxyhydroxide surface, which is consistent with shorter metal-oxygen bonds and lower coordination number for the metal at the surface relative to the aqueous ion. Fractionation of Cu isotopes also is greater than that for Zn isotopes. Limited isotopic data for adsorption of Cu, Fe(II), and Zn onto amorphous ferric oxyhydroxide suggest that isotopic fractionation is related to the intrinsic equilibrium constants that define aqueous metal interactions with oxyhydroxide surface sites. Greater isotopic fractionation occurs with stronger metal binding by the oxyhydroxide with Cu > Zn > Fe(II).     

Gustav Swoboda

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