SPSS在旅游人数的预测应用

基于1979~2007年中国入境旅游人数资料,利用SPSS统计分析软件中的AR IMA模型,预测中国入境旅游人数。结果表明,该方法准确可靠高、方便快捷,适用于入境游客量的预测。     

The teleconnection between marine silicon supply and desertification in China

Desertification has been notably expanding in China in the recent decade, especially in North China where dust/sand storm (DSS) frequently assaulted local communities. Analyses in marine ecology found that the earth ecosystem could be able to complement nutrient silicon for keeping sustain- able development of marine ecosystem, and decreasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere; as a result, the area of desertification would be enlarged. Modern human being activities have resulted in constant changes in the amount of silicon transport from land into sea, leading to oversupply of nitrogen and phosphorus but silicon in seawater. The proportion of nitrogen, phosphorus and silicon was seriously im- balanced and the limitation of silicon for phytoplankton growth has become more serious. The silicon de- ficiency has damaged the marine ecosystem in coastal regions and slowed down the carbon sedimentation in the atmosphere of the world. The authors believe that the continual discharge of CO2 into the atmos- phere is the cause for the global warming including marine water temperature rise. Consequently, the earth ecosystem would have to trigger its complementary action to resume to the silicon balance by algae bloom in seawater for reducing air and water temperatures. In order to complement nutrient silicon into the sea, the ecosystem would transport silicon via the atmosphere; therefore, the desertification in the in- ner land is a natural reaction. As marine phytoplankton booming can reduce the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and further ease the green-house effect, during this process, a large amount of silicon are de- manded by the ecosystem, which human being are unable to stop desertification from happening but slow down the progress and ease the risk. Therefore, as an important role in earth ecosystem, people should reduce the CO2 discharge into the atmosphere first; then, the normal function of river transporting silicon must be restored. In this way, the CO2 in the atmosphere can be kept in balance, the global warming slowed down, marine ecosystem development sustained, the drought in inner land eased, and the desert gradually under-controlled.     

胶州湾水体重金属汞的分布和重力特性

根据1985年4月、7月和10月胶州湾水域调查资料,研究和分析胶州湾重金属汞的水质、平面分布、垂直分布、季节变化以及来源。结果表明:汞在胶州湾水体中的含量范围为:0.029~4.950μg/L,符合一类到劣四类海水水质标准;4月,在胶州湾整个湾内水域受到汞的污染,在湾的东部和北部近岸水域受到汞的严重污染,7月,受到汞的污染较重,在10月,受到汞的轻微污染。胶州湾汞含量只有一个来源:是由海泊河、李村河和娄山河的河流输送的,而且输送的汞浓度都非常高。汞表、底层分布的时空变化和垂直分布都表明了汞迅速沉降的重力特性,证实了汞的水域迁移过程和水域迁移机制。在胶州湾的整个湾内水域,受到汞的污染程度是由河流输送汞含量的多少来决定的。     

桑沟湾水体及沉积物中有机磷农残时空分布特征

以气相色谱-质谱法(GC-MS)分析并结合外标法,定量测定了2009年4月—2010年2月6个航次桑沟湾海域水体和沉积物中常见的8种有机磷农药,探讨了该海域有机磷农药组成以及时空分布特征.结果表明:桑沟湾水体中共检出有机磷农药6种,其中甲基对硫磷、马拉硫磷和对硫磷等3种有机磷农药在各航次均有检出.沉积物中有机磷农药含量的水平分布呈现由湾口向湾内海域逐渐降低的趋势.该海域水体中有机磷农药含量呈现10月份较高,4月、6月和8月份次之,12月和 2月份最低的月份分布特征.与国内外类似水体相比,桑沟湾海域中总有机磷农药含量处于轻度污染水平,甲基对硫磷、马拉硫磷等单组分含量也处于较低水平.     

海洋环境航行安全保障决策支持系统设计

为对海上船舶航行提供安全保障决策支持,本文设计了海洋环境航行安全保障决策支持系统.系统采用面向服务架构思想,将功能单元封装成统一标准的服务,服务之间的调用关系经设计,实现海洋数据交互与功能组合重用.本文阐述了系统开发与部署步骤并展示决策支持部分的示范性系统流程,向决策者提供卫星成像规划、风险评价、溢油预测与应急救援路径...     

浮游植物增殖能力的研究探讨

作者从浮游植物生态的意义出发,提出了新概念:浮游植物的增殖能力。增殖能力包含碳同化系数、光照时间和真光层的厚度,它充分反映了自然海区的浮游植物本身的增殖过程,并能够进行定量化的描述,也排除了叶绿素含量变化的影响。该概念可以克服初级生产力和初级生产过程的基础——叶绿素量的两个变量在海域中所观察到的不一致性。与传统观     

Mercury distribution in the Jiaozhou Bay

The Jiaozhou Bay is a semi-enclosed bay, Qingdao, China. More than 10 rivers enter the bay, of which most take wastes from industrial and household discharges. According to historical seasonal investigations in May, August, November 1979, the content, distribution, and development of heavy metal mercury are analyzed as a historical reference. Water samples were taken from the surface and bottom. The results revealed clear seasonal and regional changes in both horizontal and vertical directions, and close relation with major discharging rivers and plankton production. The seawater was polluted more seriously in spring than in any other seasons. However, it was the cleanest in winter during which least waste was input with low plankton production. According to historical data, the state of mercury pollution in seawater was worsening in the period, and has been improving in recent years. Terrestrial contamination was the main reason for mercury pollution in the bay.     

桑沟湾水体中有机磷农药残留组成与分布

采用气相色谱-质谱法定量测定桑沟湾海域水体中有机磷农药残留,分析了其组成与分布特征。2009年4月(春季)和10月(秋季)桑沟湾海域水体中8种有机磷农药的含量测定结果表明:桑沟湾有机磷农药的总浓度水平是春季小于秋季,有机磷农药的总浓度范围为0.001～0.265μg/L,均值为0.061μg/L。该海域水体中共检出6种有机磷农药,马拉硫磷和对硫磷是桑沟湾水体中主要的有机磷农药污染物。有机磷农药分布特征大致呈现春季表层水体中近岸高,离岸低,由湾口向湾内递减,底层水体中在湾口处浓度最高;秋季表层水体中由西北岸、东北湾口向湾中央渐增,底层水体中呈现由湾内向湾口递增的趋势。本研究提供的数据可为了解该海域的有机磷农药污染分布情况提供参考。     

胶州湾水体镉的分布及来源

根据1980年的胶州湾水域调查资料,分析了重金属Cd在胶州湾水域的水平分布、垂直分布和季节变化以及来源.研究结果表明:在整个胶州湾水域,1年中Cd质量浓度的变化范围为0.00～0.48 μg/L,都符合国家一类海水水质标准(1.00 μg/L),整个胶州湾水域水质没有受到任何Cd的污染.在胶州湾水域只有1个来源:是湾口外的水域,整个胶州湾水域的Cd表层水平分布展示了海流输送Cd到胶州湾的湾口外、湾口以及湾口内的水域.海流的输入Cd的质量浓度为0.00～0.48 μg/L,胶州湾水域Cd的环境本底值为0.00～0.48 μg/L.Cd垂直分布展示了:在春、夏、秋季,Cd的表、底层都相近;Cd表层、底层质量浓度的季节变化都形成了春、夏、秋季的一个峰值曲线.Cd底层水平分布展示了:在6、7、9和10月,Cd的底层质量浓度都是湾外高,湾内低.而且,在海流输送Cd的过程中,沿着海流进入了胶州湾水域的路径,Cd的表层质量浓度比底层质量浓度高,在海洋输送的路径周围水域,Cd的表层质量浓度一直都比底层质量浓度低.     

综合风化条件下渤海原油中PAHs 变化特征研究

以渤海某原油作为研究对象进行50 d综合模拟风化实验,探讨了原油中五类PAHs组分的分布情况及其风化规律.结果表明:经过50 d风化,原油中PAHs的分布发生了较大的改变:萘系列化合物损失最为严重,相对浓度的损失达到56.78%;菲系列所占的比例有所提高,二苯并噻吩、屈、芴系列则保持相对稳定,其分布特征变化规律为进一步筛选溢油来源鉴别新诊断比值参数提供了一定的导向性;经风化检验,现有常用6种PAHs诊断比值在风化50 d后稳定性良好,可用于风化溢油的鉴别.