中国西南广西英罗湾红树林近130年来演化指标——沉积物中的红树叶片亚化石

Located in the intertidal zone of the tropical and subtropical coasts, mangrove forests are an important ecosystem in the global carbon cycle and serve as a protector of local seashores. Under the double impacts of climate change,especially sea-level rise, and human activity, mangrove forests around the world have faced degradation, against which the reconstruction of the historical development of mangrove forests using an effective indicator has been regarded as a necessary strategy for designing a predictable model. As the primary product of mangrove forest, it is reasonable that the content of leaf fragments of mangrove(CLFM) buried in sediments in the form of sub-fossils potentially has the same indicative function for the development of mangrove forests as that of widely-used mangrove pollen. In this study, the leaf fragments of mangrove in two sediment cores(YLW02 and YLW03) drilled in the Yingluo Bay in Guangxi, Southwest China were picked out and weighted for calculation of CLFM, which was used as an indicator of mangrove development after examination of parallelism and a statistical correlation of the CLFM with the concentration of mangrove pollen. The results clearly show that the vertical distribution of the CLFM for the core taken from the landward margin of mangrove forests(YLW03) only parallels that of the local mangrove species(Rhizophora. stylosa) with a significantly positive correlation(R=0.56, P=0.05), while the vertical distribution of the CLFM for the core taken from the interface between seaward margin of mangrove forest and the trunk of tidal creeks of the bay(YLW02) parallels the summed concentration of mangrove pollen(SCMP) with a more positive correlation than that of YLW03(R=0.85, P=0.01), indicating that the trunk outlet of tidal creeks must have been the site where mangrove production gathered from the overall forest rather than from local production. The variations in the CLFM of both cores indicate that overall the mangrove forests in the Yingluo Bay have increasingly flourished over the last 130 years except for the interval of 1940–1950 AD in response to an increase in air temperature and decrease in rainfall, which would have resulted in an increase in seawater salinity;while the coupled extreme increases in air temperature and in rainfall in summer, which would have resulted in extreme decreases in seawater salinity, would be responsible for the relative degradation of mangrove forests in the interval of 1940–1950 AD.     

近百年中国气候变暖趋势之再评估

基于均一化的气温观测序列集,1900年以来中国气温升高趋势1.3—1.7℃/(100 a)。这个已用于新近的中国国家气候变化评估报告的结果,远高于早期的评估结果(0.5—0.8℃/(100 a))。回顾了始于20世纪80年代的中国百年气温序列的研究,指出其中关键进展在于近年来研发了均一化的长期站点气温观测序列集。早年构建的中国气温序列中,20世纪40年代前异常偏高,除了战乱期间观测缺失严重及记录代表性问题外,主要是50年代前后很多台站迁址导致早期气温观测值系统性偏高所致,从而低估长期变暖趋势。40年代前后部分区域确实偏暖,但由于不同区域气温波动位相不一致,因而大范围平均序列中并不明显。这一事实可与近年发展的"北极暖-大陆冷"等气候变化动力学理论以及一些区域气温代用资料相印证。近几十年城市化对中国气温变化趋势之贡献大小尚存争议,但远非主导因素。     

广西钦州湾晚全新世红树林演变及对海平面变化的响应

Mangroves, widely distributed along the coasts of tropical China, are influenced by Asia monsoon, relative sea level change and enhanced human activity. To predict the impacts of future climate change on mangrove ecosystems, it can be understood by reconstructing past mangrove dynamics using proxies preserved in coastal sediments. In this study, we quantitatively partitioned buried organic matter(OM) sources, collected from a vulnerable mangrove swamp in the Qinzhou Bay of northwestern South China Sea, using a ternary end-member mixing model of δ~(13)C and C:N values. Mangrove-derived OM(MOM) contribution was used as a tracer for mangrove development since 2.34 cal ka BP. This information, together with paleoclimate records(i.e.,speleothem δ~(18)O values, sea level change, grain size parameters) and human activity, was used to divide mangrove development into three stages during the late Holocene: relative flourish(2.34–1.13 cal ka BP), relative degradation(1.13–0.15 cal ka BP) and further degradation(0.15–0 cal ka BP). Before 1.13 cal ka BP, mangroves flourished with a high MOM contribution((88.9±10.6)%), corresponding to stable and high sea level under a warm and humid climate. After 1.13 cal ka BP, rapid fall in relative sea level coupled with the strengthening of the Asian winter monsoon, resulted in mangrove degradation and MOM reduction((62.4±18.9)%). Compared with air temperature and precipitation, the relative sea level fall was the main controlling factor in mangrove development before entering the Anthropocene(the time of the Industrial Revolution). After ～150 cal a BP, reclamation of mangrove swamps to shrimp ponds is the main factor causing mangrove degradation and MOM reduction.     

近140年来广西红树林演变及其对人类活动的响应:有机碳和孢粉联合示踪

Mangrove degradation must reduce carbon sequestration in recent years, thereby aggravating global warming.Thus, short-term impacts of human activity on mangrove ecosystems are cause for concern from local governments and scientists. Mangroves sediments can provide detailed records of mangrove species variation in the last one hundred years, based on detailed 210 Pb data. The study traced the history of mangrove development and its response to environmental change over the last 140 years in two mangrove swamps of Guangxi, Southwest China. Average sedimentation rates were calculated to be 0.48 cm/a and 0.56 cm/a in the Yingluo Bay and the Maowei Sea, respectively. Chemical indicators(δ13Corg and C:N) were utilized to trace the contribution of mangrove-derived organic matter(MOM) using a ternary mixing model. Simultaneous use of mangrove pollen can help to supplement some of these limitations in diagenetic/overlap of isotopic signatures. We found that vertical distribution of MOM was consistent with mangrove pollen, which could provide similar information for tracing mangrove ecosystems. Therefore, mangrove development was reconstructed and divided into three stages: flourishing, degradation and re-flourishing/re-degradation period. The significant degradation, found in the period of 1968–1998 and 1907–2007 in the Yingluo Bay and the Maowei Sea, respectively, corresponding to a rapid increase of reclamation area and seawall length, rather than climate change as recorded in the region.     

东海沉积物中全新世中晚期气候变化的孢粉学证据

对东海DGKS9617钻孔进行孢粉分析，恢复了该区全新世中晚期的气候变化历程。分为6个气候期和11个亚期。分别与孢粉组合相对应为：I－暖热湿润期：Ⅱ暖热干燥期，平均温度约比现今高2－3℃；Ⅲ－温凉湿润期，分三个亚期，即Ⅲa－偏温干亚期，Ⅲb－偏暖湿亚期，Ⅲc－偏温干亚期；Ⅳ－冷干期，三个亚期为Ⅳa－偏冷干亚期，年均温度较今约低1－2℃，Ⅳb－偏温湿亚期，Ⅳc－偏温干亚期；Ⅴ－冷湿期：Ⅵ－温暖干燥为主，分为5相对偏冷或偏暖亚期。     

甘肃省云量的气候特征

对甘肃省５３个测站１９６１—１９９５年年平均总云量资料用ＥＯＦ等方法进行分析研究。结果表明：甘肃省年平均总云量变化在空间上具有很好的一致性，但也存在明显的差异；３５年来甘肃省年平均总云量变化趋势是在波动中逐渐减少，全省平均减少０．１９成，尤以９０年代云量减少最显著；甘肃省总云量年际变化具有７年周期。     

全新世大暖气广西钦州湾红树林衰退的红树林源有机质贡献示踪及其对亚洲季风的响应

The response of mangrove ecosystems to the Asian monsoon in the future global warming can be understood by reconstructing the development of mangrove forests during the Holocene climatic optimum(HCO), using proxies preserved in coastal sediments. The total organic matter in sediments of a segmented core, with calibrated age ranges between 5.6 and 7.7 cal. ka BP and corresponding to the HCO, from the Qinzhou Bay in Guangxi, China, is quantitatively partitioned into three end-members according to their sources: mangrove-derived, terrigenous,and marine phytoplanktonic, using a three-end-member model depicted by organic carbon isotope(δ13Corg) and the molar ratio of total organic carbon to total nitrogen(C/N). The percentage of mangrove-derived organic matter(MOM) contribution is used as a proxy for mangrove development. Three visible drops in MOM contribution occurred at ca. 7.3, ca. 6.9, and ca. 6.2 cal. ka BP, respectively, are recognized against a relatively stable and higher MOM contribution level, indicating that three distinct mangrove forest degradations occurred in the Qinzhou Bay during the HCO. The three mangrove forest degradations approximately correspond to the time of the strengthened/weakened Asian winter/summer monsoon. This indicates that even during a period favorable for the mangrove development, such as the HCO, climatic extremes, such as cold and dry events driven by the strengthened/weakened Asian winter/summer monsoon, can trigger the degradation of mangrove forests.     

京津冀地区历史地震事件时空特征研究*

受环太平洋地震带影响,华北平原地区地震频发,尤其是处于中国首都经济圈的京津冀地区的地震事件备受关注。通过对历史文献资料及地震台网记录中的地震事件统计、分析,重建该地区地震事件历史并获取其潜在的空间分布特征及时间规律,对未来地震事件的早期预警具有重要参考意义。分析结果表明,公元前231年至公元2018年期间京津冀地区发生的1044起地震事件中,以有感地震和中强地震为主,小地震、强烈地震以及大地震发生频次较低。地震记录完整性分析结果表明,除小地震外,其他等级地震记录自公元1400年以来基本完整。在空间分布上,京津冀地区历史地震呈“T”字形分布,沿1条北西—南东走向地震带和1条北东—南西走向地震带分布。在时间上,京津冀地区地震事件呈现出阶段性的变化,在公元1480—1680年间以及1950年以来2个时间段内较为活跃,发生频率较高,频谱分析结果进一步表明地震记录存在45年的复发周期。在月际尺度上,地震事件同样存在季节性差异且多发于夏秋季节,同时地震密集区域在年内呈现出自西向东迁移的现象。最后,根据历史地震事件发生的时间规律,在未来一段时间内京津冀地区仍将处于地震活跃期,存在发生强震的风险。     

聚落“双修”视角下传统村落人居环境活化路径研究——以湖南省张谷英村为例

传统村落是农耕文明的重要载体,维持传统村落人居环境的有效更新极为重要。以中国传统村落张谷英村为例,运用景观基因分析法分析了张谷英村显性物质文化景观基因与隐性非物质文化基因特征,从聚落“双修”视角提出了传统村落人居环境活化方案。研究结果显示：① 显性景观基因特征为空间布局空心趋势明显,街巷系统衰退痕迹严重;民居建筑结构秩序紊乱,功能利用主体两极分化;主体建筑链条节点断裂,文明载体内涵挖掘尚浅;山川地势脉络根基平稳,水系网络线条渐趋单一;② 隐性文化基因特征为家风信仰世代传承不息,图腾标志遥相呼应不止;民俗文化延续之途受阻,传统礼仪抗争之路临难;③ 显性基因修补路径为基因建库,恢复原始形态,完善基础系统;微创修补,保留原始功能,再现原真风貌;隐身挖掘,重接本土链条,夯实建筑内涵;“低+高”干预,维持稳定脉络,调适单一线条;④ 隐性基因修复路径为内外熏陶,营造传承氛围,完善解说系统;置身其中,增强居民参与,再现特色场景。从聚落“双修”视角探索传统村落人居环境优化方案,其目的是在保留原有风貌的基础上实现有机更新,完成物质空间和非物质空间的转型发展,推动传统村落人居环境的可持续发展。     

海上大型河流相稠油油田高含水期开发模式研究与实践

秦皇岛32-6油田是渤海湾亿吨级的大型整装河流相稠油油田,初期采用大井距、稀井网、一套层系多层合采的开发模式,导致油田在进入中高含水期后,逐步暴露出层间、层内和平面的三大矛盾,油井产量快速递减,亟需进行开发调整。鉴于海上油田开发的特殊性,陆上已有的开发调整模式无法直接应用到海上油田。针对该油田地质特征和开发特点,提出了适合海上河流相稠油油田中高含水期后水平井细分层系开发模式,实现了海上河流相油田的高效开发,研究形成了多层合采层间干扰系数定量表征技术,层系重组、井网重构和水平井挖潜有机结合的立体挖潜技术,实现了海上河流相油田高效开发新模式,油田采油速度提高了2.6倍,采收率提高了12.8%,高含水期开发效果得到了明显改善,为类似油田开发调整提供了经验。