昌吉近40a蒸发量时空变化特征

利用昌吉州8站1969-2008年40a的蒸发皿蒸发量资料,分析了蒸发量的时空变化特征。结果表明,全州蒸发量的节变化明显,夏季最大,春、秋季次之,冬季最小;从20世纪70年代开始以-109．6mm／10a的速率减少,主要是由于春、夏、秋季蒸发量显著减少所致。     

三江源地区植被指数下降趋势的空间特征及其地理背景

利用8km分辨率的Pathfinder NOAA/AVHRR-NDVI数据,结合1km分辨率的DEM,1 ∶ 250000道路、居民点、水系数据以及野外调查数据,分析了植被指数变化总体态势、植被指数变化与海拔及与距道路、水源和居民点距离之间的关系,探讨了三江源区1981~2001年间植被指数变化趋势和空间分异特征。结果表明:①三江源地区植被指数变化以下降趋势为主,下降区域占源区总面积的18.92%,增加区域占13.99%;②不同植被和冻土类型下的植被指数下降特征:灌丛区和森林区下降率最高,下降率与各类型区的居民点密度、生计方式有关;植被指数下降程度与冻土类型关系不明显;③植被指数下降的区域差异明显:下降率各区域分别为长江源区13.56%、黄河源区32.51%和澜沧江源区18.1%;④植被指数下降率随着距道路、河流的距离增加而逐渐减小;下降率在距居民点18~24km的缓冲带上达到最高后随着距离增大而下降;植被指数下降率随着海拔高程的升高呈"低－高－低－高"态势,下降率与居民点的分布高度相关。     

大渡河上游林区森林资源退化及其恢复与重建

虽然森林采伐后的恢复重建一直是青藏高原东部地区森林经营管理的主要实践活动之一，但有关该区大规模森林恢复重建实践及其存在的问题还不清楚。本文选择大渡河上游林区，分析了该区目前森林资源现状、森林退化及其恢复重建及特点，阐明了该区目前资源管理与恢复重建存在的主要问题，并提出了相应的技术对策。结果表明，该区林地资源丰富，但森林资源量小，覆盖率不足23％，长期采伐导致森林生态系统结构和功能严重恶化；现有恢复重建技术体系不健全，人工成林成功率在高山同峡谷区不足30％，高丘区不足15％；造林树种单一，造林密度过大，抚育管理不力，人工林质量低下；强化对迹地退化过程的深入研究和监测，充分认识迹地环境的制约作用，强化抚育管理，改进和完善现有的森林重建技术体系，增加造林树种，特别是乡土阔叶树种的多样性应该是该区生态恢复重建的关键对策。     

基于变分模态分解的机器学习模型择优风速预测系统

精准的风速预报对风力发电系统具有重要意义,但风速信号自身固有的随机性使其波动复杂且不可控,以往的研究采用单一或固定的组合模型很难把握风速序列的特征.提出一种基于分解的机器学习模型择优风速预测系统,采用变分模态分解算法降低原始风速序列的复杂度.进而利用模糊神经网络、非线性自回归神经网络、Elman神经网络、反向传播神经网络和自回归差分移动平均模型构成机器学习模型择优系统,分别对子序列的验证集进行预测,通过均方根误差等性能指数选择其最优模型,提高了整体模型的预测精度.试验采用宁夏地区4个站点的实测风速数据,仿真实验结果表明,所提模型相比于单模型以及较新的深度学习组合模型,具有更高的预测精度.     

基于数字测绘产品的质量检查

要保证数字测绘产品的质量,必须严把数字测绘产品生产的全过程质量检查关,针对生产过程的检查内容,探讨检查数据源(数据生产)的重要意义,介绍控制数字测绘产品的质量检查方法。     

GPS技术在煤矿资源勘查中的应用

通过应用GPS在哈密野马泉煤田资源勘查中的实践,可以得出,GPS技术完全可以满足煤矿资源勘查的精度要求,为投资煤炭开发领域提供可靠的地质依据。可供同行参考。     

Handling error propagation in sequential data assimilation using an evolutionary strategy

An evolutionary strategy-based error parameterization method that searches for the most ideal error adjustment factors was developed to obtain better assimilation results. Numerical experiments were designed using some classical nonlinear models (i.e., the Lorenz-63 model and the Lorenz-96 model). Crossover and mutation error adjustment factors of evolutionary strategy were investigated in four aspects: the initial conditions of the Lorenz model, ensemble sizes, observation covariance, and the observation intervals. The search for error adjustment factors is usually performed using trial-and-error methods. To solve this difficult problem, a new data assimilation system coupled with genetic algorithms was developed. The method was tested in some simplified model frameworks, and the results are encouraging. The evolutionary strategy-based error handling methods performed robustly under both perfect and imperfect model scenarios in the Lorenz-96 model. However, the application of the methodology to more complex atmospheric or land surface models remains to be tested.     

GPRS技术在昌吉州区域自动气象站组网中的应用

GPRS技术以其网络覆盖范围广、传输速率快、安全性高等优点广泛应用于各行各业,文章结合自动气象站组网要求,介绍了GPRS网络的数据传输特点和原理,将GPRS技术应用于昌吉州中小尺度自动气象站组网系统中.     

青藏高原植被覆盖变化与降水关系

The temporal and spatial changes of NDVI on the Tibetan Plateau, as well as the relationship between NDVI and precipitation, were discussed in this paper, by using 8-km resolution multi-temporal NOAA AVHRR-NDVI data from 1982 to 1999. Monthly maximum NDVI and monthly rainfall were used to analyze the seasonal changes, and annual maximum NDVI, annual effective precipitation and growing season precipitation (from April to August) were used to discuss the interannual changes. The dynamic change of NDVI and the corre- lation coefficients between NDVI and rainfall were computed for each pixel. The results are as follows: (1) The NDVI reached the peak in growing season (from July to September) on the Tibetan Plateau. In the northern and western parts of the plateau, the growing season was very short (about two or three months); but in the southern, vegetation grew almost all the year round. The correlation of monthly maximum NDVI and monthly rainfall varied in different areas. It was weak in the western, northern and southern parts, but strong in the central and eastern parts. (2) The spatial distribution of NDVI interannual dynamic change was different too. The increase areas were mainly distributed in southern Tibet montane shrub-steppe zone, western part of western Sichuan-eastern Tibet montane coniferous forest zone, western part of northern slopes of Kunlun montane desert zone and southeastern part of southern slopes of Himalaya montane evergreen broad-leaved forest zone; the decrease areas were mainly distributed in the Qaidam montane desert zone, the western and northern parts of eastern Qinghai-Qilian montane steppe zone, southern Qinghai high cold meadow steppe zone and Ngari montane desert-steppe and desert zone. The spatial distribution of correlation coeffi- cient between annual effective rainfall and annual maximum NDVI was similar to the growing season rainfall and annual maximum NDVI, and there was good relationship between NDVI and rainfall in the meadow and grassland with medium vegetation cover, and the effect of rainfall on vegetation was small in the forest and desert area.