海上大气边界层数值预报技术发展概论

海上大气边界层对社会经济和军事活动有着重要的影响,目前我国还没有建立业务化运行的海上大气边界层数值预报系统,对相关预报技术的研究具有十分重要的意义。本文详细分析了大气边界层数值模式的发展情况和边界层主要物理过程的国内外研究现状,为发展适用于我国的海上大气边界层数值预报系统和相关的物理过程研究提供科学依据。     

台风“布拉万”过境黄海时的异常增温事件研究

海洋对台风的响应通常表现为海表温度的降低,然而,出现在2012年8月的台风“布拉万”在经过黄海时却引起朝鲜半岛木浦沿岸海域海表的增温(而非降温),且增温幅度达4.2°C。本研究详细分析了此次异常事件的时空特征,并探讨了其可能的成因。结果发现,此次事件的产生和黄海表层冷水斑块(Surface Cold Patch,SCP)存在密切关系,并恰好出现在木浦SCP所在位置。上升流和潮混合是木浦SCP的两大形成机制,此次增温事件主要是台风“布拉万”通过抑制其生成机制之一的上升流而导致降温不足之故。具体而言,台风“布拉万”过境时位于木浦SCP的左侧,其上的北向风应力带来向岸的Ekman输运,造成外围暖水在木浦SCP地区堆积,从而抑制了该地区原本的上升流(甚至变为下降流)。     

北极大气边界层初步模拟试验

应用一维K闭合OSUPBL模式和ARCSCM极地柱模式,采用SHEBA观测资料和ECM- WF的输出结果作为模式的初始场和外强迫场,对SHEBA试验所在地(75°N,150°W)单点的北极大气边界层特征,进行了初步的模拟并与SHEBA资料进行对比分析。研究表明,这两个模式都具有较好地模拟单点北极大气边界层特征的能力。OSUPBL模式在垂直高度上的高分辨率,使其能够更好地反映大气边界层内部的细微变化特征。ARCSCM模式中考虑了比较多的物理过程,且需要提供比较完整的初始场、边界条件和侧向强迫,并每小时更新,模拟结果更符合实际情况。对模式的不足和下一步的研究也进行了讨论。     

以坡位为空间配置单元的流域管理措施情景优化方法

基于流域过程模型的BMP情景分析是当前流域管理措施评价、非点源污染控制等研究应用中广泛采用的方法,但其通常采用的BMP空间配置单元（地块、农场、水文响应单元或子流域）与坡面上的地形部位关系较弱,难以有效地根据坡面过程特点表达坡面上多种BMP之间的空间配置关系,影响了BMP情景优化效率和结果的合理性。为此,本文提出以坡位单元作为BMP空间配置单元,将各种BMP在不同坡位间合理的空间配置关系显式表达为基于坡位的空间配置规则,通过结合NSGA-II优化算法建立了一套基于坡位单元的BMP空间配置优化方法。应用案例表明,本文构建的基于坡位单元的BMP情景优化方法可有效利用基于坡位的空间配置规则进行BMP情景优化,优化所得的BMP空间配置方案更为合理,优化效率较高。     

西南黄海近岸低盐水体的来源与输送机制

In the southwestern Yellow Sea there is a low-salinity and turbid coastal water,the Subei Coastal Water(SCW).The origins of freshwater contents and thus the dissolved terrigenous nutrients in the SCW have been debated for decades.In this study,we used a well-validated numerical model to quantify the contributions of multiple rivers,i.e.,the Changjiang River in the south and the multiple Subei local rivers(SLRs) in the north,in forming this yearround low-salinity coastal water.It is found that the freshwater contents in the SCW is dominated by the Changjiang River south of 33.5°N,by the SLRs north of 34.5°N,and by both sources in 33.5°–34.5°N.Overall,the Changjiang River contributes ~70% in the dry season and ~80% in the wet season of the total freshwater contents in the SCW,respectively.Dynamics driving the Changjiang River Plume to flow northward is the tidal residual current,which can even overwhelm the wind effects in winter seasons.The residual currents turn offshore near the Old Yellow River Delta(OYRD) by the collision of the two tidal wave systems,which transport the freshwater from both sources into the interior Yellow Sea.Water age experiments show that it takes 50–150 d for the Changjiang River Plume to reach the SCW in the spring and summer seasons,thus there is a 2-month lag between the maximum freshwater content in SCW and the peak Changjiang River discharge.In the winter and autumn seasons,the low salinity in inner SCW is the remnant Changjiang River diluted water arrived in the previous seasons.     

喀拉海峡潮-地相互作用激发非线性内波的数值模拟

Nonlinear internal waves(NIWs) are ubiquitous around the Kara Sea, a part of the Arctic Ocean that is north of Siberia. Three hot spot sources for internal waves, one of which is the Kara Strait, have been identified based on Envisat ASAR. The generation and evolution of the NIWs through the interactions of the tide and topography across the strait is studied based on a nonhydrostatic numerical model. The model captures most wave characteristics shown by satellite data. A typical inter-packets distance on the Barents Sea side is about 25 km in summer, with a phase speed about 0.65 m/s. A northward background current may intensify the accumulation of energy during generation, but it has little influence on the other properties of the generated waves. The single internal solitary wave(ISW) structure is a special phenomenon that follows major wave trains, with a distance about 5–8 km. This wave is generated with the leading wave packets during the same tidal period. When a steady current toward the Kara Sea is included, the basic generation process is similar, but the waves toward the Kara Sea weaken and display an internal bore-like structure with smaller amplitude than in the control experiment. In winter, due to the growth of sea ice, stratification across the Kara Strait is mainly determined by the salinity, with an almost uniform temperature close to freezing. A pycnocline deepens near the middle of the water depth(Barents Sea side), and the NIWs process is not as important as the NIWs process in summer. There is no fission process during the simulation.     

三维斜压台风模式 Ⅱ.预报试验

一种斜压多重移动套网格台网模式在国家海洋环境预报中心已被应用于海洋环境预报。本文第一部分已描述了模式方程组和数值方法。本文继续概述模式网格、变分调整初始化和预报试验结果。最外粗网格域固定,内部细网格域随台风中心轨迹移动。模式中,粗细网格变量采用双向耦合。平衡方程和方程,理想台风场和变分调整方案被用于台风模式初始化。一种简单而有效的资料同化方法,即用第6h台风报和弱约束变分原理调整初始场,被应用于提高预报结果。最后本文给出预报试验结果。预报误差统计显示本模式对台风路径预报具有相当能力,而且可以提供海面风和气压场较好的预报。本模式已经与海浪模式联结,得到满意的波高预报结果。     

渤海冰期的基本水文气象参量研究

渤海是一个中纬度的超浅海,每年都会产生不同程度的结冰现象,这给海上生产和作业带来了很大的威胁。而冰情的严重程度由则该年冬季的水文气象条件决定。本文应用１９９７年１月辽东湾冰调资料和锦州２０－２平台的部分资料,比较详尽地研究了渤海冰期的不文气象参量,其中包括太阳短波辐射,长波辐射,风速和风向,湿度,海冰导热率的比热等。     

长江河口北支倒灌盐通量数值分析

应用改进的三维数值模式,研究了长江河口北支倒灌盐通量.当径流量取11 000 m3/s,风况取风速为6 m/s的北风时,长江河口北支上段大潮、中潮、小潮和半月平均盐通量分别为-26.28,-14.65,-1.58和-15.83 t/s,发生北支盐分倒灌进入南支,大潮期间的盐分倒灌量远大于小潮期间.通过数值计算定量分析了...     

一个嵌套于MM5的高分辨率大气边界层模式

以ARPS中尺度大气模式的边界层模块为基础,发展一高分辨率的大气边界层模式并将其嵌套于中尺度大气模式MM5,利用MM5的积分结果作为运行边界层模式的初值和边界强迫外参数,模式的10m风速结果和海上平台观测值相比有很好的一致性,模式的其他结果接近中尺度MM5的结果.该模式与MM5模式嵌套能得到更高分辨率的大气边界层的气象要素和参数的预报结果,提供高分辨率海洋模式的大气强迫或与其耦合,从而弥补目前大气模式和海洋模式的分辨率相差太大的不足.