2008年奥运会期间北京城区地面风场的分析

2008年8月8～24日北京奥运会期间,正逢中国24节气中的"立秋"。为探讨风向风速的气候变化规律,把北京城市划分成9个区域,利用9个区域中自动气象站连续监测的逐时最大风向风速数据样本,将360°风向划分为8个方位的风向,统计出该时段北京城市9个区域8个方位风向风速的气候特征:北风频率增大,南风频率减小;最大风速的风向频率日变化呈双峰型;平均最大风速的日变化,夜间维持低谷值,15～17时出现峰值。由此可见,研究"立秋"北京的风场气候特点,对于体育比赛运动、改善生活环境和城市建设等具有科学的指导意义。     

冬季西伯利亚高压的主要年际变化模态及其对东亚气温的影响

选取40°N—60°N,80°E—120°E的区域作为西伯利亚高压的主要活动区域,利用NCEP/NCAR月均海平面气压再分析资料,对该区域西伯利亚高压(Siberian High,SH)从1979—2017年共38个冬季(12月至次年2月)进行经验正交函数分解(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)。结果表明,第1模态为全区一致的变化,第2模态为南北气压的反相变化关系,第3模态为东西部气压的反相变化关系,并且3个模态的时间序列都存在显著的年际变化。进一步对相关的大气环流和东亚气温异常的分析表明,第1模态相联系的大气环流在地面表现为海陆气压差的改变,500 h Pa高度上东亚大槽强度的变化,200 h Pa纬向风场上温带急流、副热带急流强度的变化,SH负位相时,东亚偏暖,SH正位相时,东亚偏冷;第2模态与北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation,AO)和北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO)的变化有密切关系,在高度场上表现为一个准正压的南北环状模态,SH北强南弱时,环流场类似AO正位相,温带急流减弱,东亚东北部偏暖,SH北弱南强时,东亚东北部偏冷;而与第3模态相联系的大气环流主要出现在欧亚大陆局部区域,与北大西洋涛动(NAO)也存在一定的关联,SH东强西弱时,东亚北部偏暖,西南部偏冷,SH东弱西强时,东亚北部偏冷,西南部偏暖。     

冬季高海拔复杂地形下GRAPES Meso要素预报的检验评估

利用GRAPES(Globe/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)对2010年温哥华奥运会6个场馆气温、相对湿度、风及降水量的预报结果,采用预报准确率、平均误差、平均绝对误差、Alpha Index、TS和ETS评分等统计量对其进行了较详细的评估。结果表明:GRAPESMeso预报相对湿度的准确率最高,且随预报时效的增加,其变化趋于稳定。起初模式对相对湿度的预报偏干,之后逐渐变为预报偏湿;气温预报偏低;风速预报偏大。逐日各要素预报检验结果表明,气温的变化幅度最小;各级降水检验发现,晴雨预报的TS评分最高,且随降水增大,ETS评分逐渐接近TS。与其他模式预报结果对比发现,GRAPES-Meso对复杂地形下要素预报还存在一定的不足。本研究还发现,模式存在一定的系统误差,若能有效订正其误差,将有助于改进模式预报。     

RESEARCH ON THE INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIABILITIES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THEIR IMPACTS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN

In this paper, we mainly summarize and review the progresses in recent climatological studies (by CMSR, IAP/CAS and some associated domestic and international institutions) on the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of monsoon troughs and their impacts on tropical cyclones and typhoons (TCs) geneses over the western North Pacific Ocean. The climatological characteristics of monsoon troughs and four types of circulation patterns favorable to TCs genesis over the western North Pacific Ocean in summer and autumn are given in this paper. It is also shown in this paper that the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific Ocean has obvious interannual and interdecadal variabilities. Especially, it is revealed in this paper that the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific Ocean influence the TCs genesis not only through the impact on distributions of the vorticity in the lower troposphere and the divergence in the upper troposphere, the water vapor in the mid- and lower troposphere and the vertical shear of wind fields between the upper and lower troposphere over the western North Pacific Ocean, but also through the dynamical effects of the transition between convectively coupled tropical waves and providing disturbance energy. Besides, some climatological problems associated with TCs activity over the western North Pacific Ocean that need to be studied further are also pointed out in this paper.     

基于云分析的数值模拟在复杂地形中的应用试验

利用区域中尺度模式ARPS(Advanced Regional Prediction System)模拟了华北西部复杂地形条件下发生在2010年9月18-22日的降水过程,并针对云分析方法对降水和温度预报的影响开展了敏感性试验.结果表明:①模式在复杂地形下有很好的适用性.24 h和48 h模拟结果,降水的起止时间、落区以及强降水中心的位置均和实况一致.24 h模拟降水的量级和实况接近,48 h的比实况偏大;②模式能准确模拟温度的变化,插值得到的5天内6个台站温度预报的平均绝对误差只有2.69℃;③云分析能显著提高模式初值的质量,特别是其中水物质的含量,从而可显著改善48 h强降水中心降水量偏大的状况,使模拟的降水场更接近于实况.但云分析对温度模拟结果的影响不明显.     

北秦岭四方台基性-超基性杂岩的地球化学特征及其成因

四方台杂岩体是沿北秦岭商-丹带出露的最大的基性-超基性杂岩体,出露面积约40 km2,由超基性-基性-中性岩石组成,侵入到丹凤群中.该岩体样品SiO2含量在45%～54%之间,在AFM图中则显示出钙碱性系列和拉斑系列共存的特征.与普通幔源岩相比,全岩富集稀土元素,尤其富集轻稀土元素,具有明显的Rb、Th、Nb、P、Zr负异常和Ba、Pb、K、sm正异常.辉长岩是该岩体的主体,灰黑色,中粒,地球化学特征显示其经历壳-幔物质交换.与典型岛弧辉长岩相比,具有Rb、Th负异常,结合特殊的岩石组合和紧邻商-丹断裂的地质特征,认为四方台镁铁-超镁铁质杂岩体可能是沿商-丹带发生俯冲板块断离或者山根拆沉,扰动软流圈,发生下地壳部分熔融和壳-幔物质交换形成的.普遍的Eu正异常表明成岩过程中受到斜长石堆晶作用的影响.     

贵广铁路甘棠江特大桥19、20号墩异常沉降原因分析及整治措施

2014年5月15日～9月1日期间,已建成的贵广铁路甘棠江特大桥19号墩基础产生了50.6~52.2 mm的异常下沉,20号墩基础产生了12.4~16.3 mm的异常下沉。现场补充完成了机动钻探、原位测试及室内试验工作。分析认为在多年强降雨条件下,深覆盖型岩溶强烈发育区的岩溶水水位波动产生潜蚀引起的岩溶塌陷,是导致该桥19、20号墩（采用摩擦桩基础,桩长约20 m）产生异常沉降的主要原因。对19、20号桥墩基底采取端承桩基础补强后,经过近2年的沉降观测,没有再发生异常沉降。文章认为在类似深覆盖型岩溶强烈发育区实施桥梁工程时,原则上应采用置于完整基岩内的端承桩基础。      

煤与瓦斯突出预测的距离判别分析方法

以煤与瓦斯突出预测为研究对象,选取地质构造、采深、瓦斯放散初速度等10个因素作为预测指标,应用距离判别分析方法建立了煤与瓦斯突出预测模型;结合实际数据,对预测模型进行训练和检验;将该模型用于实际,预测结果符合实际情况。      

厦门皱瘤海鞘性腺发育的组织学研究

皱瘤海鞘雌性同体。性腺组织学观察结果表明，在厦门皱瘤海鞘卵巢和精巢发育和成熟可分为５人时期，在同一人体中，卵巢和精巢的发育不同步，因而不发生自体受精，另外，根据性腺发育的季节性观察，皱瘤海鞘常年都可繁殖，但生殖旺季在６月。     

INFLUENCE OF THE INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW ON TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

The influence of the interannual variation of cross-equatorial flow(CEF) on tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific(WNP) is examined in this paper by using the tropical cyclone(TC) best track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the JRA-25 reanalysis dataset. The results showed that the number of TCs forming to the east of 140°E over the southeastern part of the western North Pacific(WNP) is in highly positive correlation with the variation of the CEF near 125° E and 150° E, i.e., the number of tropical cyclogeneses increases when the cross-equatorial flows are strong. Composite analyses showed that during the years of strong CEF, the variations of OLR, vertical wind shear between 200-850 h Pa, 850 h Pa relative vorticity and 200 h Pa divergence are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis to the east of 140°E over the tropical WNP, and vice versa. Moreover, it is also discussed from the view of barotropic energy conversion that during the years of strong CEF, an eastward-extended monsoon trough leads to the rapid growth of eddy kinetic energy over the eastern part of WNP, which is favorable for tropical cyclogenesis;but during the years of weak CEF, the monsoon trough is located westward in the western part of the WNP, consistent with the growth area of eddy kinetic energy. As a result, there are fewer TC geneses over the eastern part of WNP.Besides, the abrupt strengthening of a close-by CEF 2-4 days before tropical cyclogenesis may be the one of its triggers.