Reliability of Lifeline Networks with Multiple Sources under Seismic Hazard

Lifelines are networks extending spatiallyover large areas. Transportation systems, pipelines,communication and power transmission systems areexamples of lifelines. The performance of a lifelineafter a major earthquake is particularly vital for acommunity because of the emergency services that areusually required after such events. Performancemeasures are usually expressed in terms of quantitiesthat are assessed based on statistical andprobabilistic methodologies. The major performancemeasure is the probability of reaching from aspecified point to another one successfully after acatastrophic event, such as an earthquake. Evaluationof this performance measure requires a seismic hazardmethodology, capacity determination techniques andnetwork reliability assessment methods. By combiningthese three aspects in one model, it is possible tocalculate the reliability of any lifeline system underseismic danger. The aim of this paper is to present aprobabilistic model for the evaluation of the seismicreliability of lifeline networks having multiplesources. The seismic reliability of a waterdistribution system located in Bursa, Turkey isassessed in order to show the implementation of theproposed model. The numerical calculations are carriedout by the LIFEPACK software, which is developed forthis purpose.     

Current velocity forecasting in straits with artificial neural networks,a case study: Strait of Istanbul

Owing to their complex character, modeling flow patterns of narrow straits has always been a challenge, even with the numerical techniques of today. This study was aimed at predicting vertical current profiles of a given point in a narrow strait, the Strait of Istanbul. On account of the speed and simplicity it offers, and of its remarkable success in solving complex problems, the feed forward back propagation (FFBP) artificial neural network (ANN) technique was chosen for this study. The model was built on 7039 hours of concurrent measurements of current profiles, meteorological conditions, and surface elevations. The model predicted 12 outputs of East and North velocity components at different depths in a given location. Various alternative models with different inputs and neuron numbers were evaluated attaining the best model by trial and error. Predictions from proposed ANN model were in accordance with the observations with average root mean square error of 0.16 m/s. The same input parameters were then used to build models that predicted current velocities 1–12 h into the future. Results of these predictions show good overall agreement with observations and that FFBP ANN can be used as a reliable tool for forecasting current profiles in straits.     

A two‐step process for the reflooding of the Mediterranean after the Messinian Salinity Crisis

The Messinian Salinity Crisis is well known to have resulted from a significant drop of the Mediterranean sea level. Considering both onshore and offshore observations, the subsequent reflooding is generally thought to have been very sudden. We present here offshore seismic evidence from the Gulf of Lions and re‐visited onshore data from Italy and Turkey that lead to a new concept of a two‐step reflooding of the Mediterranean Basin after the Messinian Salinity Crisis. The refilling was first moderate and relatively slow accompanied by transgressive ravinement, and later on very rapid, preserving the subaerial Messinian Erosional Surface. The amplitude of these two successive rises of sea level has been estimated at ≤500 m for the first rise and 600–900 m for the second rise. Evaporites from the central Mediterranean basins appear to have been deposited principally at the beginning of the first step of reflooding. After the second step, which preceeded the Zanclean Global Stratotype Section and Point, successive connections with the Paratethyan Dacic Basin, then the Adriatic foredeep, and finally the Euxinian Basin occurred, as a consequence of the continued global rise in sea level. A complex morphology with sills and sub‐basins led to diachronous events such as the so‐called ‘Lago Mare’.This study helps to distinguish events that were synchronous over the entire Mediterranean realm, such as the two‐step reflooding, from those that were more local and diachronous. In addition, the shoreline that marks the transition between these two steps of reflooding in the Provence Basin provides a remarkable palaeogeographical marker for subsidence studies.     

First Ground-Based Photometry and Light Curve Analysis of the Recently Discovered Contact Binary Hx Uma

Photoelectric UBV light curves of the recently discovered eclipsing binary HX UMa were obtained and studied to determine the preliminary physical parameters of the system for the first time. The observations were taken at the TüBİTAK¹ – Turkish National Observatory (TUG) on three nights in April 2003. A simultaneous analysis of the light and radial velocity curves yields a typical A-type contact binary with a high degree of overcontact. The influence of the close visual companion to the total light of the system was taken into account during the analysis. ¹TüBİTAK: The Scientific and Technical Research Council of Turkey.     

Geochemical,mineralogical and Re-Os isotopic constraints on the origin of Tethyan oceanic mantle and crustal rocks from the Central Pontides,northern Turkey

Mineralogy and Petrology - Chromite, ultramafic and mafic rocks from Eldivan, Yapraklı, Ayli Dağ, Küre, Elekdağ and Kızılırmak in northern Turkey have been...     

Investigation of vertical mass changes in the south of Izmir (Turkey) by monitoring microgravity and GPS/GNSS methods

Journal of Earth System Science - The monitoring of gravity changes in a region enables the investigation of regional structural elements depending upon the changes in load compensation. This...