High-resolution climate simulation of the last glacial maximum

The climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) is simulated with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model, the NCAR CCM3 at spectral truncation of T170, corresponding to a grid cell size of roughly 75 km. The purpose of the study is to assess whether there are significant benefits from the higher resolution simulation compared to the lower resolution simulation associated with the role of topography. The LGM simulations were forced with modified CLIMAP sea ice distribution and sea surface temperatures (SST) reduced by 1°C, ice sheet topography, reduced CO₂, and 21,000 BP orbital parameters. The high-resolution model captures modern climate reasonably well, in particular the distribution of heavy precipitation in the tropical Pacific. For the ice age case, surface temperature simulated by the high-resolution model agrees better with those of proxy estimates than does the low-resolution model. Despite the fact that tropical SSTs were only 2.1°C less than the control run, there are many lowland tropical land areas 4–6°C colder than present. Comparison of T170 model results with the best constrained proxy temperature estimates (noble gas concentrations in groundwater) now yield no significant differences between model and observations. There are also significant upland temperature changes in the best resolved tropical mountain belt (the Andes). We provisionally attribute this result in part as resulting from decreased lateral mixing between ocean and land in a model with more model grid cells. A longstanding model-data discrepancy therefore appears to be resolved without invoking any unusual model physics. The response of the Asian summer monsoon can also be more clearly linked to local geography in the high-resolution model than in the low-resolution model; this distinction should enable more confident validation of climate proxy data with the high-resolution model. Elsewhere, an inferred salinity increase in the subtropical North Atlantic may have significant implications for ocean circulation changes during the LGM. A large part of the Amazon and Congo Basins are simulated to be substantially drier in the ice age—consistent with many (but not all) paleo data. These results suggest that there are considerable benefits derived from high-resolution model regarding regional climate responses, and that observationalists can now compare their results with models that resolve geography at a resolution comparable to that which the proxy data represent.     

Application of satellite infrared data for mapping of thermal plume contamination in coastal ecosystem of Korea

The 5900 MW Younggwang nuclear power station on the west coast of Korea discharges warm water affecting coastal ecology [KORDI report (2003). Wide area observation of the impact of the operation of Younggwang nuclear power plant 5 and 6, No. BSPI 319-00-1426-3, KORDI, Seoul, Korea]. Here the spatial and temporal characteristics of the thermal plume signature of warm water are reported from a time series (1985-2003) of space-borne, thermal infrared data from Landsat and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites. Sea surface temperature (SST) were characterized using advanced very high resolution radiometer data from the NOAA satellites. These data demonstrated the general pattern and extension of the thermal plume signature in the Younggwang coastal areas. In contrast, the analysis of SST from thematic mapper data using the Landsat-5 and 7 satellites provided enhanced information about the plume shape, dimension and direction of dispersion in these waters. The thermal plume signature was detected from 70 to 100 km to the south of the discharge during the summer monsoon and 50 to 70 km to the northwest during the winter monsoon. The mean detected plume temperature was 28 degrees C in summer and 12 degrees C in winter. The DeltaT varied from 2 to 4 degrees C in winter and 2 degrees C in summer. These values are lower than the re-circulating water temperature (6-9 degrees C). In addition the temperature difference between tidal flats and offshore (SSTtidal flats - SSToffsore) was found to vary from 5.4 to 8.5 degrees C during the flood tides and 3.5 degrees C during the ebb tide. The data also suggest that water heated by direct solar radiation on the tidal flats during the flood tides might have been transported offshore during the ebb tide. Based on these results we suggest that there is an urgent need to protect the health of Younggwang coastal marine ecosystem from the severe thermal impact by the large quantity of warm water discharged from the Younggwang nuclear power plant.     

Glacial mass balance changes in the Karakoram and Himalaya based on CMIP5 multi-model climate projections

The impact of future climate change on the glaciers in the Karakoram and Himalaya (KH) is investigated using CMIP5 multi-model temperature and precipitation projections, and a relationship between glacial accumulation-area ratio and mass balance developed for the region based on the last 30 to 40 years of observational data. We estimate that the current glacial mass balance (year 2000) for the entire KH region is -6.6?±?1 Gta^?1, which decreases about sixfold to -35?±?2 Gta^?1 by the 2080s under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5. However, under the low emission scenario of RCP2.6 the glacial mass loss only doubles to -12?±?2 Gta^?1 by the 2080s. We also find that 10.6 and 27 % of the glaciers could face ‘eventual disappearance’ by the end of the century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively, underscoring the threat to water resources under high emission scenarios.     

VRANCEA99—the crustal structure beneath the southeastern Carpathians and the Moesian Platform from a seismic refraction profile in Romania

The VRANCEA99 seismic refraction experiment is part of an international and multidisciplinary project to study the intermediate depth earthquakes of the Eastern Carpathians in Romania. As part of the seismic experiment, a 300-km-long refraction profile was recorded between the cities of Bacau and Bucharest, traversing the Vrancea epicentral region in NNE–SSW direction.

The results deduced using forward and inverse ray trace modelling indicate a multi-layered crust. The sedimentary succession comprises two to four seismic layers of variable thickness and with velocities ranging from 2.0 to 5.8 km/s. The seismic basement coincides with a velocity step up to 5.9 km/s. Velocities in the upper crystalline crust are 5.9–6.2 km/s. An intra-crustal discontinuity at 18–31 km divides the crust into an upper and a lower layer. Velocities within the lower crust are 6.7–7.0 km/s. Strong wide-angle PmP reflections indicate the existence of a first-order Moho at a depth of 30 km near the southern end of the line and 41 km near the centre. Constraints on upper mantle seismic velocities (7.9 km/s) are provided by Pn arrival times from two shot points only. Within the upper mantle a low velocity zone is interpreted. Travel times of a PLP reflection define the bottom of this low velocity layer at a depth of 55 km. The velocity beneath this interface must be at least 8.5 km/s.

Geologic interpretation of the seismic data suggests that the Neogene tectonic convergence of the Eastern Carpathians resulted in thin-skinned shortening of the sedimentary cover and in thick-skinned shortening in the crystalline crust. On the autochthonous cover of the Moesian platform several blocks can be recognised which are characterised by different lithological compositions. This could indicate a pre-structuring of the platform at Mesozoic and/or Palaeozoic times with a probable active involvement of the Intramoesian and the Capidava–Ovidiu faults. Especially the Intramoesian fault is clearly recognisable on the refraction line. No clear indications of the important Trotus fault in the north of the profile could be found. In the central part of the seismic line a thinned lower crust and the low velocity zone in the uppermost mantle point to the possibility of crustal delamination and partial melting in the upper mantle.     

Hyperspectral Radiometry to Quantify the Grades of Iron Ores of Noamundi and Joda Mines,Eastern India

This paper present the results of a preliminary study to assess the potential of the visible, NIR and SWIR energy of the EMR in differentiating iron ores of different grades in a rapid manner using hyperspectral radiometry. Using different iron ore samples from Noamundi and Joda mines, Jharkhand and Orissa, states of India, certain spectro-radiometric measurements and geochemical analysis were carried out and the results have been presented. It was observed that the primary spectral characteristics of these iron ores lie in the 850 to 900 nm and 650–750 nm regions. The spectral parameters for each curve used for studying the iron ores are: (i) the slopes of the spectral curve in 685–725 nm region; (ii) position of the peak with respect to wavelength in 730–750 nm region and (iii) radius of curvature of the absorption trough in the 850–900 nm region. Comparison of these spectral parameters and the geochemistry of the samples indicates that the position of the peak of the curve in 730–750 nm region shifts towards longer wavelength with increasing iron oxide content, while the slope of the curvature in the 685–725 nm region has a strong negative correlation with the iron oxide content of the samples. Similarly, a strong negative correlation is observed between the radius of curvature of the 850–900 nm absorption trough and the iron oxide content. Such strong correlations indicate that hyperspectral radiometry in the visible and NIR regions can give a better estimate and quantification of the grades of iron ores. This study has demonstrated that generation of empirical models using hyperspectral radiometric techniques is helpful to quantify the grade of iron ores with limited geochemical analysis.     

Hydrologic characteristics of floods in Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) delta

In the middle of 2007, a severe flood affected the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. This is a natural disaster that takes people’s lives, destroys livestock, infrastructures and communication systems and, damages crops and fish ponds. Despite many adverse impacts, the flood situation is an accepted phenomenon to the citizens of Bangladesh, due to the immense increase of soil fertility due to the flood, plus, the recharge of aquifer, ecosystem and fish. The flood of 2007 was the 5th major flood of the last 20 years when more than thirty-five percent of the area of the country was inundated with flood water. As in the past, the flood of 2007 had its own significance. The geography of the country contains a floodplain delta of three major river basins: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna (GBM). The mean monthly rainfall plot from the TRMM satellite data has shown that for both the Meghna and Brahmaputra basins, the rainfall was higher during July 2007 than any other months of the last 2 years. This excess rainfall had accumulated in the Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers and carried downstream to Bangladesh. This was the main cause of the flooding in 2007. The first crossing above the danger level of the river waters was observed at Durgapur station of the Someswari and at Sunamganj station of the Surma on the nineteenth of July, 2007 inside Bangladesh. In terms of magnitude of the peak and duration of the flood, the Brahmaputra was higher in 2007 than during 2004. However, the Ganges river water level never crossed the danger level during flood of 2007. The Meghna was lower during the flood peak for the duration of the flood in 2007. The year–to-year variability in both the magnitude and duration of the flood suggests changes in rainfall and landuse pattern of the catchment.     

Fast versus slow response in climate change: implications for the global hydrological cycle

Recent studies have shown that changes in global mean precipitation are larger for solar forcing than for CO₂ forcing of similar magnitude. In this paper, we use an atmospheric general circulation model to show that the differences originate from differing fast responses of the climate system. We estimate the adjusted radiative forcing and fast response using Hansen’s “fixed-SST forcing” method. Total climate system response is calculated using mixed layer simulations using the same model. Our analysis shows that the fast response is almost 40% of the total response for few key variables like precipitation and evaporation. We further demonstrate that the hydrologic sensitivity, defined as the change in global mean precipitation per unit warming, is the same for the two forcings when the fast responses are excluded from the definition of hydrologic sensitivity, suggesting that the slow response (feedback) of the hydrological cycle is independent of the forcing mechanism. Based on our results, we recommend that the fast and slow response be compared separately in multi-model intercomparisons to discover and understand robust responses in hydrologic cycle. The significance of this study to geoengineering is discussed.     

The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme US precipitation events in a global atmosphere model

We investigate the ability of a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to reproduce observed 20 year return values of the annual maximum daily precipitation totals over the continental United States as a function of horizontal resolution. We find that at the high resolutions enabled by contemporary supercomputers, the AGCM can produce values of comparable magnitude to high quality observations. However, at the resolutions typical of the coupled general circulation models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the precipitation return values are severely underestimated.