2019年12月26日湖北应城M4.9地震震源参数及余震活动性研究

2019年12月26日湖北应城发生M4.9有感地震,其震感波及武汉大部分地区。为了分析该地震的发震构造及余震活动性,本文利用波形拟合方法测定了不同速度模型下该地震的震源机制解和矩心深度,并用Bootstrapping抽样反演技术评价反演结果;此外,利用模板匹配技术匹配主震和目录余震波形,获取了更为完整的余震目录。结果显示,应城地震以走滑为主,矩心深度7.5km左右,矩震级M_W4.67;应城地震有1个前震和17个余震,余震序列缺少M2~4事件,表明应城地震为孤立型地震,M2以下地震的b值为0.8。     

Hydrological characteristics of karstic groundwater in the northeast Viet Nam as studied by isotopic techniques

The stable water isotopic composition (δ²H and δ¹⁸Ο), tritium (³H) activity, dissolved organic carbon, alkalinity, as well as the composition of carbon 13 (δ¹³C) in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of 36 water samples taken from 16 resurgences in the northeast provinces of Viet Nam in the dry (Mar 2008) and rainy (June 2008) seasons were analyzed to elucidate hydrological characteristics of the karstic aquifers in the area. The stable water isotopic composition of the water samples collected clearly demonstrated that the karstic groundwater in the region was recharged from the local meteorological water. The tritium activity in the samples was found to be in between 3 and 4 TU, falling in the range of the ³H activity in the local precipitation and thus meaning that the traveling of recharge water to the resurgences was very short. Concentrated and diffuse allogenic recharges seem to be important sources of karstic groundwater in the study region. Water in the karstic aquifers could be classified into three types as: (a) water from karstic areas with dense vegetation cover that causes DIC be depleted in carbon 13 (¹³δ<?12‰ vs. Pee Dee Belemnite standard of Vienna, VPDB); (b) water from karstic areas with poor vegetation cover that originates DIC with carbon 13 composition ranging from ?11 to ?12‰; and (c) surface water from lakes, springs and rivers that has DIC with enriched carbon 13 (δ¹³C >?10‰). This implies that there are several sources of carbon dioxide contributing to the DIC in water of the karstic aquifers in the study region. Among other potential sources, the atmospheric CO₂, CO₂ from carbonate rock dissolution, biomineralization of soil organic matters and plant roots respiration seem to be important sources of the DIC in the waters of this region. The results show high vulnerability towards anthropogenic contaminants of karstic groundwater in the study region.     

双线偏振雷达测雨效果的对比分析

本文根据1993、1994年15次层状云和12次对流云降雨过程的地面降雨资料和C波段双线偏振雷达资料，对双线偏振雷达和普通雷达测量不同强度降雨的效果进行了评估和比较。结果表明，从相对误差来看，双线偏振雷达使普通雷达的小雨高估、大雨低估的测量误差趋势减弱，它对小到中雨的测量结果优于普通雷达。双线偏振雷达大雨高估的现象可能与强对流性降雨中冰相粒子的存在有关。     

东营市秋冬季大雾天气分析

利用1971-2000年东营市及所辖3个县站的资料分析了地处黄河入海口的东营市大雾天气气候特征，结果表明：每年11月到次年的1月，是一年中大雾出现最岁的月份，广饶县大雾出现得最多，平均每年大雾日有22．7天。针对2006年9月20-23日连续大雾天气，分析了其高、低空环流形势，在此基础上总结了东营秋冬季大雾的预报着眼点。对于连续性大雾的第一天预报，需要湿度条件、辐射降温条件、风力条件均有利时才易出现大雾，而对于连续性的大雾，对辐射降温条件要求不高。     

运城市2010年4月13日强霜冻过程分析

利用常规天气资料和数值预报产品,应用天气分析和诊断分析方法,对2010年4月13日运城市出现的近40年最严重的强霜冻天气过程进行分析,并与历史个例进行比较,结果表明,此次过程是在前期升温明显的基础上,有强冷空气在西伯利亚及贝加尔湖堆积并向南侵袭造成的;此次过程亚洲中高纬环流表现为“一脊一槽”型,动力机制为横槽转竖促使冷空气向南爆发;冷空气爆发后,本地上空由强盛的冷平流控制,地面冷高压进入关键区并达到寒潮强度。由于每次强降温发生的环流背景、影响系统及冷空气的强度、发展、移动路径不同,所以造成的降温幅度和影响也不同。在此基础上,总结出强霜冻预报的着眼点。     

MODIS植被指数的美国玉米单产遥感估测

针对中国开展的国外农作物产量遥感估测大多依靠中低分辨率耕地信息、省级(州级)或国家级作物产量统计数据的现状,本文以美国玉米为例,探讨利用多年中高分辨率作物分布信息、时序遥感植被指数和县级作物产量统计数据开展国外重点地区作物单产遥感估测技术研究,以期进一步提高中国对国外农作物产量监测精度和精细化水平。首先,利用美国农业部国家农业统计局(NASS/USDA)生产的作物分布数据(CDL)获得多个年份玉米空间分布图,并对相应年份250 m分辨率16天合成的MODIS-NDVI时序数据进行掩膜处理,统计获得每年各县域内玉米主要生育期NDVI均值;其次,以各州为估产区,以多年县级玉米统计单产和县域内玉米主要生育期NDVI均值为基础,建立各州玉米主要生育期NDVI与玉米单产间关系模型;然后,通过主要生育期玉米单产和玉米植被指数间拟合程度,筛选确定各州玉米最佳估产期和最佳估产模型。最终,利用最佳估产模型实现美国各州玉米单产估测和全国玉米单产推算。其中,建模数据覆盖时间为2007年—2010年,验证数据为2011年。结果表明,应用最佳估产模型的2011年美国各州玉米单产估测相对误差在-4.16%—4.92%,均方根误差在148.75—820.93 kg/ha,各州估测结果计算获得全国玉米单产的相对误差仅为2.12%,均方根误差为285.57 kg/ha。可见,本研究的作物单产遥感估测技术方法具有一定可行性,可准确估测全球重点地区作物单产信息。     

中国长序列资料测站月降水、月均温相关联系的稳定性分析

选取我国长序列资料测站点中月降水与月均温资料较全的6个站点：西安、广州、汉口、沈阳、重庆、上海,以10a为一次成组实验,时域分辨率定为季,计算出各季月降水与月均温的相关系数,然后用相关分析和贝努里概型分析月均温与月降水之间的相关联系,初步得出我国长序列资料测站点春、夏、秋、冬月降水与月均温的相关稳定性联系。结果表明：①我国月降水与月均温在春、夏、秋、冬季均存在相关关系,以夏、秋季节最显著且为负相关,故我国常见干热或湿凉型夏、秋季;②我国华南地区春季月降水与月均温负相关关系显著,故常呈现干热或湿冷型春季;西北地区冬季月降水与月均温负相关关系较为明显,常呈现干热或湿冷型冬季。     

Target setting and allocation of carbon emissions abatement based on DEA and closest target: an application to 20 APEC economies

Regarded as an effective method for treating the global warming problem, carbon emissions abatement (CEA) allocation has become a hot research topic and has drawn great attention recently. However, the traditional CEA allocation methods generally set efficient targets for the decision-making units (DMUs) using the farthest targets, which neglects the DMUs’ unwillingness to maximize (minimize) some of their inputs (outputs). In addition, the total CEA level is usually subjectively determined without any consideration of the current carbon emission situations of the DMUs. To surmount these deficiencies, we incorporate data envelopment analysis and its closest target technique into the CEA allocation problem. Firstly, a two-stage approach is proposed for setting the optimal total CEA level for the DMUs. Then, another two-stage approach is given for allocating the identified optimal total CEA among the DMUs. Our approach provides more flexibility when setting new input and output targets for the DMUs in CEA allocation. Finally, the proposed approaches are applied for CEA target setting and allocation for 20 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation economies.

     

Influence of heterogeneity on unsaturated hydraulic properties: (1) local heterogeneity and scale effect

Spatial heterogeneity is ubiquitous in nature, which may significantly affect the soil hydraulic property curves. The models of a closed‐form functional relationship of soil hydraulic property curves (e.g. VG model or exponential model) are valid at point or local scale based on a point‐scale hydrological process, but how do scale effects of heterogeneity have an influence on the parameters of these models when the models are used in a larger scale process? This paper uses a two‐dimensional variably saturated flow and solute transport finite element model (VSAFT2) to simulate variations of pressure and moisture content in the soil flume under a constant head boundary condition. By changing different numerical simulation block sizes, a quantitative evaluation of parameter variations in the VG model, resulting from the scale effects, is presented. Results show that the parameters of soil hydraulic properties are independent of scale in homogeneous media. Parameters of α and n in homogeneous media, which are estimated by using the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity curve (UHC) or the soil water retention curve (WRC), are identical. Variations of local heterogeneities strongly affect the soil hydraulic properties, and the scale affects the results of the parameter estimations when numerical experiments are conducted. Furthermore, the discrepancy of each curve becomes considerable when moisture content becomes closer to a dry situation. Parameters estimated by UHC are totally different from the ones estimated by WRC. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

内蒙古敖汉旗七家金矿闪长玢岩锆石U-Pb年代学、地球化学及地质意义

内蒙古敖汉旗七家金矿构造位置上处于兴蒙造山带与华北克拉通北缘的结合部位, 靠近兴蒙造山带一侧, 是近年来新发现的石英脉型金矿床.区内岩脉以闪长玢岩为主, 且与石英脉型矿体空间关系密切.根据岩脉与矿体的穿插关系, 将其分为成矿前闪长玢岩和成矿后闪长玢岩.LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年代学表明, 成矿前闪长玢岩加权平均年龄为166.3±3.4 Ma, 成矿后闪长玢岩加权平均年龄为128.6±4.5 Ma, 与区域上两期构造-岩浆活动时间(分别为160 Ma左右和128 Ma左右)近似吻合.主量元素特征显示: 二者均属于准铝质, 高钾钙碱性系列; 微量元素特征显示: 二者均富集轻稀土元素、大离子亲石元素(Rb、K)和活泼的不相容元素(U、Pb), 相对亏损重稀土元素和高场强元素(Nb、Ta、Ti), 反映出岩浆来源具壳源特征.主微量元素特征均显示出二者具有岛弧岩浆岩的地球化学属性.另外, 成矿后闪长玢岩有较高的Nb/Ta(18.66~20.27)和Zr/Hf(37.16~39.23)比值, 暗示其岩浆来源具明显的幔源特征.岩石地球化学特征表明, 成矿前闪长玢岩可能起源于太平洋板块俯冲导致的下地壳部分熔融岩浆; 成矿后闪长玢岩可能起源于俯冲流体交代的地幔楔熔融岩浆, 并在其演化侵位过程中伴有地壳物质的混染.结合闪长玢岩成岩时代、岩石成因及区域构造演化, 反映出七家金矿的形成与太平洋板块的西向俯冲密切相关, 矿床在地壳由挤压增厚向伸展减薄的转换过程中形成.