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利用卷积神经网络和门控循环单元(Gated recurrent units )神经网络,基于雷达反射率因子和雷电定位数据开展了雷电预报研究。首先构建了引用注意力机制的基于卷积神经网络和门控循环单元神经网络的深度学习模型(Attention ConvGRU);然后将雷达反射率因子数据和对应时间段(6 min)的雷电定位数据处理成图像数据后输入深度学习模型,训练出可预报雷电的模型,包括3种模型:单雷电数据模型、单雷达数据模型和雷电〖CD*2〗雷达双数据模型;最后开展了预报试验和定量评估。综合评估表明,本文建立的雷电预报模型综合预报准确率达到96.74%,虚警率35.83%,关键成功指数(Critical Success Index, CSI)为0.2072。个例分析表明,预报模型对于具有明显移动趋势的雷暴过程(A类雷暴)的预报效果优于不具有明显移动趋势的雷暴过程(B类雷暴),且随着B类雷暴强度减弱模型预报能力逐渐减弱。 相似文献
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利用1982—2017年华西南部地区冬季气温和NCEP再分析资料以及CFS模式实时预测资料,通过SVD诊断分析,选取影响华西南部地区冬季气温的同期关键区大气环流和前期海温及OLR因子场,建立预测与观测场相结合的组合统计降尺度预测模型。该统计降尺度预测模型对1982—2017年的回报结果显示:与观测场的空间相关系数较CFS模式原始预测结果有显著提高,多年均值从-0.06提升到0.38,最高可达0.85。同时,此降尺度预测模型可较好地回报出华西南区冬季气温的空间分布型。 相似文献
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Previous studies have shown that water retention curve (WRC) and the hydraulic conductivity vary because of changes of the void ratio or porosity of soil. However, limited documents pointed out the change of hydraulic properties of soil when compacted to different porosities while considering both of the drying and wetting processes of the WRC. This information is sometimes necessary for research like finger flow analysis or the occurrence of wetting and drying cycles as what would be seen in the field. Therefore, this study aims to examine the change of WRC characteristics with varied porosity considering both of the drying and wetting path in WRC by conducting a sand box experiment. Results show that the same type of sand compacted to various porosities have different hydraulic parameters. Hydraulic conductivities generally decrease with reduced porosities; shape parameter α of the van Genuchten equation (1980) linearly decreases with declining porosity and shape parameter n in a reversal manner for the sands of interest whether in the drying process or wetting process. The unsaturated properties of sand are further characterized by inspecting the variations of moisture content, matric suction and vertical displacement of soil body subject to periodic changes of the water level by another sand box experiment. The outcomes suggest that the saturated water content and residual water content are changing during the wetting–drying process, which can be an implication of the changed properties of WRC. The characteristics of volumetric deformation might be varied as well because of the observation of the dissimilar patterns of the changing vertical displacements among each wetting–drying process. Infiltration patterns of the sands also are identified through numerical modelling by introducing a constant infiltration flux from the surface followed by a no‐influx condition. Results indicate that less water accumulates in the sand near the surface for the sand compacted to higher porosity, but water can move deeper. Hydraulic conductivity is found as the prime factor dominating the evolvement of wetting fronts. However, shape parameters of water retention curves also affect the infiltration pattern to some extent. In addition, different sands with similar porosities can have quite different infiltrating characteristics. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Nathalie van Vliet Ole Mertz Andreas Heinimann Tobias Langanke Unai Pascual Birgit Schmook Cristina Adams Dietrich Schmidt-Vogt Peter Messerli Stephen Leisz Jean-Christophe Castella Lars Jørgensen Torben Birch-Thomsen Cornelia Hett Thilde Bech-Bruun Amy Ickowitz Kim Chi Vu Kono Yasuyuki Jefferson Fox Christine Padoch Alan D. Ziegler 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(2):418-429
This meta-analysis of land-cover transformations of the past 10–15 years in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers world-wide shows that swidden agriculture decreases in landscapes with access to local, national and international markets that encourage cattle production and cash cropping, including biofuels. Conservation policies and practices also accelerate changes in swidden by restricting forest clearing and encouraging commercial agriculture. However, swidden remains important in many frontier areas where farmers have unequal or insecure access to investment and market opportunities, or where multi-functionality of land uses has been preserved as a strategy to adapt to current ecological, economic and political circumstances. In some areas swidden remains important simply because intensification is not a viable choice, for example when population densities and/or food market demands are low. The transformation of swidden landscapes into more intensive land uses has generally increased household incomes, but has also led to negative effects on the social and human capital of local communities to varying degrees. From an environmental perspective, the transition from swidden to other land uses often contributes to permanent deforestation, loss of biodiversity, increased weed pressure, declines in soil fertility, and accelerated soil erosion. Our prognosis is that, despite the global trend towards land use intensification, in many areas swidden will remain part of rural landscapes as the safety component of diversified systems, particularly in response to risks and uncertainties associated with more intensive land use systems. 相似文献