Extreme learning machine for the displacement prediction of landslide under rainfall and reservoir level

Landslide prediction is always the emphasis of landslide research. Using global positioning system GPS technologies to monitor the superficial displacements of landslide is a very useful and direct method in landslide evolution analysis. In this paper, an EEMD–ELM model [ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) based extreme learning machine (ELM) ensemble learning paradigm] is proposed to analysis the monitoring data for landslide displacement prediction. The rainfall data and reservoir level fluctuation data are also integrated into the study. The rainfall series, reservoir level fluctuation series and landslide accumulative displacement series are all decomposed into the residual series and a limited number of intrinsic mode functions with different frequencies from high to low using EEMD technique. A novel neural network technique, ELM, is employed to study the interactions of these sub-series at different frequency affecting landslide occurrence. Each sub-series extracted from accumulative displacement of landslide is forecasted respectively by establishing appropriate ELM model. The final prediction result is obtained by summing up the calculated predictive displacement value of each sub. The EEMD–ELM model shows the best accuracy comparing with basic artificial neural network models through forecasting the displacement of Baishuihe landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area of China.     

河南西峡盆地上白垩统河流及湖泊沉积中的遗迹组构

河南西峡盆地上白垩统马家村组沉积厚度巨大,达1 960 m,由辫状河沉积、曲流河沉积和湖泊沉积组成。在河流与湖泊沉积中,发育丰富的遗迹化石,共6种类型,分别为Skolithos linearis、Cylindricumichnosp、Palaeophycus tubularis“J”形潜穴、垂直分枝潜穴和垂直螺旋潜穴。从形态分析,大多数为居住迹,按照遗迹化石产出岩层的岩性、扰动特征和残留遗迹等总体特征,将所发现的遗迹化石层划分为两类遗迹组构,即软底组构和僵底组构。前者主要发育在纹层状极细砂岩和粉砂岩中,潜穴密度大,属种单一,包括Skolithos组构和Palaeophycus组构;后者主要发育在厚层泥岩中,潜穴密度较大,类型稍多,包括由Cylindricum ichnosp、垂直分枝潜穴J形潜穴和垂直螺旋潜穴所组成的遗迹组构。与报道过的其他地区陆相遗迹化石的对比表明,随着时间的推移,河流沉积中的组构特征在白垩纪有明显变化,而浅湖沉积中的遗迹组构表明造迹生物的扰动能力显著加强。     

东营凹陷热流体活动及其对水-岩相互作用的影响

从气体地球化学、有机质热变、包裹体均一温度、古地温梯度、成岩矿物、重金属元素和岩浆活动等方面证实了东营凹陷发生了大量的热流体活动.热流体主要沿活动性较强的深大断裂运移至浅部, 并以侧向强迫对流为主, 同时具有多期次活动的特点.热流体通过改变温度场和地温梯度以及带入一些无机物质, 导致水-岩相互作用强度和类型的差异.      

The Ore-forming Fluid of the Gold Deposits of Muru Gold Belt in Eastern Shandong, China - a Case Study of Denggezhuang Gold Deposit

Abstract. Denggezhuang gold deposit is an epithermal gold‐quartz vein deposit in northern Muru gold belt, eastern Shandong, China. The deposit occurs in the NNE‐striking faults within the Mesozoic granite. The deposit consists of four major veins with a general NNE‐strike. Based on crosscutting relationships and mineral parageneses, the veins appear to have been formed during the same mineralization epochs, and are further divided into three stages: (1) massive barren quartz veins; (2) quartz‐sulfides veins; (3) late, pure quartz or calcite veinlets. Most gold mineralization is associated with the second stage. The early stage is characterized by quartz, and small amounts of ore minerals (pyrite), the second stage is characterized by large amounts of ore minerals. Fluid inclusions in vein quartz contain C‐H‐O fluids of variable compositions. Three main types of fluid inclusions are recognized at room temperature: type I, two‐phase, aqueous vapor and an aqueous liquid phase (L+V); type II, aqueous‐carbonic inclusions, a CC₂‐liquid with/without vapor and aqueous liquid (LCO₂+VCC₂+Laq.); type III, mono‐phase aqueous liquid (Laq.). Data from fluid inclusion distribution, microthermometry, and gas analysis indicate that fluids associated with Au mineralized quartz veins (stage 2) have moderate salinity ranging from 1.91 to 16.43 wt% NaCl equivalent (modeled salinity around 8–10 wt% NaCl equiv.). These veins formatted at temperatures from 80d? to 280d?C. Fluids associated with barren quartz veins (stage 3) have a low salinity of about 1.91 to 2.57 wt% NaCl equivalent and lower temperature. There is evidence of fluid immiscibility and boiling in ore‐forming stages. Stable isotope analyses of quartz indicate that the veins were deposited by waters with δ^O and δD values ranging from those of magmatic water to typical meteoric water. The gold metallogenesis of Muru gold belt has no relationship with the granite, and formed during the late stage of the crust thinning of North China.     

Periodical mixing of MORB magmas near East Pacific Rise 13°N: Evidence from modeling and zoned plagioclase phenocrysts

Thirty-six basalt samples from near East Pacific Rise 13°N are analyzed for major and trace elements. Different types of zoned plagioclase phenocrysts in basalts are also backscatter imaged, and major element profiles scanned and analyzed for microprobe. Basalts dredged from a restricted area have evolved to different extents (MgO=9.38wt%—6.76wt%). High MgO basalts are modeled for crystalliza-tion to MgO of about 7wt%, and resulted in the Ni contents (≈28 ppm) that are generally lower than that in observed basalts (>60 ppm). It suggests that low MgO basalts may have experienced more intensive magma mixing. High MgO (9.38wt%) basalt is modeled for self-"mixing-crystallization", and the high Ni contents in low MgO basalts can be generated in small scale and periodical self-mixing of new magma (high MgO). "Mixing-crystallization" processes that low MgO magmas experienced accord with recent 226Ra/230Th disequilibria studies for magma residence time, in which low MgO magmas have experi-enced more circles of "mixing-crystallization" in relatively longer residence time. Magma mixing is not homogeneous in magma chamber, however, low MgO magmas are closer to stable composition pro-duced by periodical "mixing-crystallization", which is also an important reason for magma diversity in East Pacific Rise. Zoned plagioclase phenocrysts can be divided into two types: with and without high An# cores, both of which have multiple reversed An# zones, suggesting periodical mixing of their host magmas. Cores of zoned plagioclase in low MgO (7.45wt%) basalt differ significantly with their mantle in An#, but are similar in An# with microlite cores (products of equilibrium crystallization) in high MgO (9.38wt%) basalt, which further shows that plagioclase phenocryst cores in low MgO basalts may have formed in their parental magmas before entering into the magma chamber.     

电子信息系统雷灾风险评估方法

灾害是一种风险,防治灾害就是管理并降低或者消除风险。需要正确认识和评估风险,对于雷电灾害来说就是开展雷电灾害风险评估,进而实施合理的雷电防护。因此,雷击风险评估是防雷设计工作之前的最重要的环节,为了全面、具体实施全方位的雷电防护提供客观、准确、科学的依据,本文针对电子信息系统雷电灾害的特点,在详细分析各种灾害成因的基础上,通过理论计算,提出了对雷电灾害进行风险评估的方法。     

华贵栉孔扇贝三倍体的研究

本文报道了用细胞松驰素B、高温和低温休克等方法诱导华贵栉孔扇贝（Chlamys nobilis）三倍体的实验结果。在26.0～28.0℃条件下，选用不同浓度的细胞松驰素B0.1、0.3、0.5、0.7和1.0mg/dm^3，在受精后15min，处理受精卵15min，三倍体诱导率分别为12.5%、37.5%、68.0%、66.6%和81.0%，其中0.5～1.0mg/dm^3浓度的细胞松驰素B对改变倍性最有效。高温休克选用31.0、33.0、35.0和37.0℃处理受精卵，最高三倍体诱导率达46.7%（33.0℃,处理15min）。低温休克选用6.0、8.0、10.0和12.0℃处理受精卵，最高三倍体诱导率为40.7%（10.0℃，处理20min）。实验结果表明，随着处理强度的增大和处理时间的延长，三倍体诱导率增高、但孵化率下降，畸型率上升。用高温休克处理的实验组幼虫生长速度较对照组快。作者认为，在商业性生产中，温度休克是诱导扇贝三倍体的一种简便、有效的方法。文中还就细胞松驰素B与温度休克诱导三倍体的机制进行了讨论。     

具有空间分布裂缝岩石的随机介质模型

利用随机过程的谱展开理论以及Hudson等人的裂纹介质模型构造一种裂纹数密度是空间平稳随机过程的随机介质模型。这个模型可以将裂纹的微观参数(裂纹数密度)与裂纹介质的宏观性质(弹性常数)联系起来,能灵活、有效地描述实际非均匀裂纹介质。模型算例表明,弹性常数的空问分布特征与裂纹数密度的有差别,而且对不同的弹性常数影响不同。通过改编自相关长度的大小,可以模拟裂缝在两个坐标轴方向上具有不同分布尺度的情况。最后,利用高阶的交错网格有限差分方法,我们模拟了地震波在具有随机分布裂缝岩石中的传播特征。     

Influence of the quality factor on simulated seismic waves: A case study of the 1994 Northridge earthquake

In numerical simulations of ground motion, the constant quality factor Q of a viscoelastic medium can be determined using the time-domain constitutive approximation method of the generalized standard linear solid (GSLS) model. This study introduces a numerical seismic wavefield simulation method which combines the spectral element method with the constant-Q model. The method is used to simulate the seismic wavefield of the 1994 Northridge earthquake. The optimal attenuation coefficient for the simulated seismic waves in this study area is determined empirically based on a quantitative analysis of the deviation curve. Further, the effect of the quality factor on the simulated wavefield are analyzed according to the site characteristics of each seismic station. The quality factor shows a variable effect on the different frequency components of the simulated wavefield. The effect of the quality factor also varies with the characteristic parameters of each seismic station site, such as site velocity structure, fault distance, and azimuth angle.