The Impact of the Numbers of Monitoring Stations on the National and Regional Air Quality Assessment in China During 2013–18

China national air quality monitoring network has become the core data source for air quality assessment and management in China. However, during network construction, the significant change in numbers of monitoring sites with time is easily ignored, which brings uncertainty to air quality assessments. This study aims to analyze the impact of change in numbers of stations on national and regional air quality assessments in China during 2013–18. The results indicate that the change in numbers of stations has different impacts on fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and ozone concentration assessments. The increasing number of sites makes the estimated national and regional PM_2.5 concentration slightly lower by 0.6?2.2 μg m^?3 and 1.4?6.0 μg m^?3 respectively from 2013 to 2018. The main reason is that over time, the monitoring network expands from the urban centers to the suburban areas with low population densities and pollutant emissions. For ozone, the increasing number of stations affects the long-term trends of the estimated concentration, especially the national trends, which changed from a slight upward trend to a downward trend in 2014?15. Besides, the impact of the increasing number of sites on ozone assessment exhibits a seasonal difference at the 0.05 significance level in that the added sites make the estimated concentration higher in winter and lower in summer. These results suggest that the change in numbers of monitoring sites is an important uncertainty factor in national and regional air quality assessments, that needs to be considered in long-term concentration assessment, trend analysis, and trend driving force analysis.     

区域气候模式中云量参数化方案的研究

首先统计并分析了模式区域内夏季平均的云量分布状况，然后在一有限区域模式中，引进了云－辐射计算模式。比较了３种不同的云量参数化方案，最后提出了一种考虑了大气相对湿度、垂直运动速度的本模式的云量参数化方案，并简要介绍了模式引入不同方案后的模拟结果。模拟结果表明，本模式的方案模拟的云量分布及气候要素场都与实况最接近，说明这一机制反映了云在气候系统中的反馈作用。不同的区域模式宜用不同的云量参数化方案。云量     

鄂尔多斯盆地及周缘地区中二叠统沉积特征*

鄂尔多斯盆地及周缘地区上古生界天然气资源丰富,中二叠统石盒子组是主力勘探层位,明确其沉积相及沉积特征对于该区油气勘探具有重要的意义。在野外剖面踏勘及钻井岩心观察的基础上,对研究区石盒子组地层及岩性特征、沉积相类型及沉积演化等进行系统分析。结果表明: 研究区中二叠统石盒子组主要发育粗粒陆源碎屑岩系。中二叠世研究区仍存在间歇性局部海侵,石盒子组主要以陆相沉积体系为主,包含冲积扇沉积相、河流沉积相、湖泊沉积相、三角洲沉积相等,同时发育障壁海岸沉积体系。研究区自北向南石盒子组依次发育冲积扇、河流、三角洲、滨浅湖等沉积,南缘、西南缘发育浅水三角洲沉积,南缘、东南缘障壁海湾中发育潟湖和障壁沙坝沉积。     

钻孔水力采矿研究方法的探讨

综合分析工艺流程、喷射机理，水枪设计，升举效率和安全稳定性等，将钻孔水力采矿的众多技术问题归纳为5个方面析要点内容，为开展钻孔水力采矿的技术研究和技术开发工作提出基本思路。     

强矿震地球物理过程及短临阶段预测的研究

用区域强震震源机制解、现场地应力测量、三维有限差分数值模拟方法分析强矿震的孕震环境；通过定量观察采矿与矿震活动的相关性，分析强矿震的诱发原因；基于中尺度地震实验场高密度数字地震和前兆台网的现场观测，用地震学方法和小波工具分析强矿震孕震过程采集到的数据，提取短临阶段的异常信息；通过强矿震的震源机制解判断震源处的应力释放状态。提出地质构造环境、地应力场和采矿活动共同作用诱发强矿震的机理和次生应力场在孕育该震过程起主导作用的观点．发现震前短临阶段存在可信的b值、η值、频次、波速比等地震学异常和定点潮汐形变前兆异常，时异常信息的提取方法和强矿震短临阶段的预测进行了探讨。     

全球变化的区域适应研究：挑战与研究对策

全球变化的适应研究不仅将成为今后一个时期内科学研究的重点,而且会成为国际社会关注的焦点。全球变化的适应可理解为人类社会面对预期或实际发生的全球变化的系统功能、过程或结构所产生的影响而采取的一种有目的的响应行为,其核心是趋利避害。对全球变化的适应是人类应对全球变化策略的明智选择,中国经济的快速发展面临全球变化影响的挑战,建议积极开展全球变化的适应研究。     

饱和砂土液化研究现状及展望

通过多年的研究,人们对饱和砂土液化有了很深的认识。在Seed简化法,剪切波速法和标准贯入试验等判别的方法的研究方面也取得了很多的成果。本文主要介绍了我国广泛应用的标准贯入试验的方法,以及应用数值方法如何更好的判断场地的抗液化性。提出应用室内的微型贯入试验来判断饱和砂土液化的展望。     

中国北方地区(33°～41°N,108°～115°E)过去500年夏季降水量的周期成分分析

利用连续小波分析和经验模态分解方法,对我国北方地区(33°～41°N,108°～115°E)1470 ～2002年每年夏季降水量指数的时间序列进行了周期成分分析,探索全球气候变暖下的该地区降水量的多尺度变化特征.小波分析表明,降水量指数的可能周期有2.57a,4.83a,10.65a,23.25a,48.56a,68.30a和105.90a的周期,在95％置信水平有统计意义的周期是2.57a和23.25a的周期.这些周期和自然因素导致的周期相联系,不仅包含了气候系统内部(平流层准2a振荡和厄尔尼诺/南方涛动)的非线性作用,还包含了气候系统外(主要是太阳活动)受强迫的周期变化,且二者在原始降水量中所在比重相当,共同反映了原始降水量的绝大部分变化.降水量不只是在百年尺度上受太阳活动的驱动,在数十年尺度上也受到太阳活动的影响.我国北方地区的夏季降水量指数和夏季温度指数同相位反相关,全球增温并没有明显地改变二者之间的反相关关系.近百年来全球变暖期间,夏季降水量出现明显的新特征:短周期成分(小于30a的周期)的振幅比以往要显著大,而长周期成分的振幅比以往要显著小,同时呈现降水量逐年减少的长期变化趋势.     

Simulation Study of the Climate Change Impact on the Rice and its Adaptability in Ningxia Province

Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia, as the top rice production area of high quality and quantity, has a long history in rice planting. The studies of the effective measures for the rice production replying the climate change were very important for reducing the harm of the future climate change and crop supply safety in Ningxia Province. Based on the coupling of the PRECIS model and the crop model CERES Rice, the effects of climate change on the rice production and growth stage in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province were simulated and evaluated, and the adaptability measures of rice production were studied. The results showed that the CERES Rice model had the preferable simulation capability, and the modified PRECIS model also could preferably simulate the required climate parameter. The crop model simulation results showed that the climate change had some influence on the rice production and growth stage in Yinhuang Irrigation District. The rice production goes down under future climate change scenarios in Ningxia Province. The trend of reduction of 2050s is more apparent than that of 2020s under the same scenarios,but the spatial change trend is similar. The extent and range of reduction of A2 scenario are wider than that of B2 scenario in the same period, but spatial change trend is different. For the change of growth stage, there has no obvious change in the north and the central part of the Yinhuang Irrigation District. The duration in 2050s shortens more obviously than that of 2020s under the same scenario, and the duration under B2 scenario shortens more obviously than that under A2 scenario in the same period. The results of adjusting the sowing date and the rice variety parameter G4 showed that the negative impact of climate change on the rice production can be reduced by sowing date advance in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province. There has obvious difference for the optimal G4 values of different region in Yinhuang Irrigation District, and the rice production can also be effectively upraised by adjusting the rice variety characteristic and cultivating the heat resistant rice varieties. The optimal G4 values can mitigate the damage of climate change on the rice production in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province.     

云南北衙富碱斑岩体特征与成矿关系

北衙富碱斑岩体分布在北衙向斜两翼,其展布主要受北北东、北北西及东西向3组断裂控制,绝大部分呈南北走向,平面上呈脉状,剖面上呈钟状、脉状,局部透镜状,向深部有膨大相连趋势,北衙金多金属矿化分布主要与近南北向的富碱斑岩体关系密切,矿化主要发生在岩体与三叠系中统北衙组(T2b3—T2b5)灰岩的接触破碎带及灰岩层间构造破碎带中。通过对大量钻探资料的分析研究认为,北衙金多金属矿床及其成矿物质主要来自于富碱斑岩体中的石英正长斑岩,属于富碱斑岩-热液型金多金属矿床。