Study on snowmelt runoff simulation in the Kaidu River basin

Alpine snowmelt is an important generation mode for runoff in the source region of the Tarim River basin, which covers four subbasins characterized by large area, sparse gauge stations, mixed runoff supplied by snowmelt and rainfall, and remarkably spatially heterogeneous precipitation. Taking the Kaidu River basin as a research area, this study analyzes the influence of these characteristics on the variables and parameters of the Snow Runoff Model and discusses the corresponding determination strategy to improve the accuracy of snowmelt simulation and forecast. The results show that: (i) The temperature controls the overall tendency of simulated runoff and is dominant to simulation accuracy, as the measured daily mean temperature cannot represent the average level of the same elevation in the basin and that directly inputting it to model leads to inaccurate simulations. Based on the analysis of remote sensing snow maps and simulation results, it is reasonable to approximate the mean temperature with 0.5 time daily maximum temperature. (ii) For the conflict between the limited gauge sta-tion and remarkably spatial heterogeneity of rainfall, it is not realistic to compute rainfall for each elevation zone. After the measured rainfall is multiplied by a proper coefficient and adjusted with runoff coefficient for rainfall, the measured rainfall data can satisfy the model demands. (iii) Adjusting time lag according to the variation of snowmelt and rainfall position can improve the simulation precision of the flood peak process. (iv) Along with temperature, the rainfall increases but cannot be completely monitored by limited gauge stations, which results in precision deterioration.     

塔里木河荒漠植被光谱可分性模拟

以塔里木河典型植被为研究对象,分析胡杨、芦苇叶片及柽柳冠层的可分性,并计算背景的影响。首先用ASD光谱仪测新鲜叶片光谱,找出光谱特征点;然后模拟EO-1高光谱数据和TM多光谱数据;最后植被与土壤光谱按比例混合,分析背景的影响。以上三步分别计算植被指数（VI）。结果显示:叶片光谱特征位置430 nm、670 nm、750 nm附近,黄边斜率和红外平台平均高度,1 080~1 280 nm、1 430~1 650 nm能够区分塔里木河流域3个主要植被类型。模拟的EO-1波谱保持了控制波形的10个特征,TM 只有绿反射峰和红吸收谷、近红外1个反射峰3个特征,大部分特征都消失了。植被指数显示(R680-R500)/R750、(R680-R550)/R705、R1430+\:+R1650、D712/D688能够区分3类,且指数值差异较大,为绿峰、红谷和近红外波峰的组合;模拟的EO-1数据(R680-R500)/R750、(R680-R550)/R705、R1430+\:+R1650能分别区分植被,TM多波谱数据不能有效区分植被。     

1980s-2010s内蒙古草地表层土壤有机碳储量及其变化

以我国内蒙古草原为研究区域,结合1982-1988年第二次土壤普查资料以及2011-2012年实地考察数据,构建了基于遥感数据和土壤数据的区域表层土壤有机碳储量估算方法,对研究区1980s和2010s表层土壤有机碳储量、空间分布特征及其变化进行研究,结果表明：(1) 1980s、2010s内蒙古草地表层土壤 (0~20 cm) 有机碳储量分别为2.05 Pg C、2.17 Pg C,土壤有机碳密度约为3.48 kg C·m^-2、3.69 kg C·m^-2,其空间分布上呈现从草甸草原、典型草原、荒漠草原逐渐降低的特征;(2) 1982-2012年间,内蒙古草地表层土壤有机碳储量略有增加,但增加幅度较小,其中草甸草原和典型草原表层土壤有机碳储量增加,荒漠草原则表现为减少。研究结果将为研究区因地制宜地采取固碳措施,实现草地可持续管理提供科学参考。     

库姆塔格沙漠的形成时代与演化

库姆塔格沙漠腹地广泛出露含古风成砂的第四纪地层剖面。根据含古风成砂地层剖面的野外调查与地层年代的室内分析结果,并与已有的周边区域地质资料对比分析,库姆塔格沙漠形成至少始于早更新世初,到中更新世晚期285.9±42.9 ka BP沙漠已大面积扩展形成,奠定了现代沙漠环境格局。沙漠最初从西南部开始形成,之后向北和东北扩展。依据梭梭沟地层剖面,沙漠在第四纪演化过程中至少经历了19个沙漠正、逆过程旋回,平均周期约为110 ka。新构造运动对沙漠的形成演化和地貌的形成发育具有重要作用,构造了山间断陷盆地并使其逐渐向封闭的干旱盆地演化形成沙漠,受四周断裂控制沙漠整体形态呈"扫帚状"。分布在沙漠北部的独特砾石体地貌形成于晚更新世末(285.9±42.9)ka BP之后。     

新疆地貌区划的一个新方案

在分析总结和借鉴继承前人地貌区划工作的基础上,开展新疆地貌区划研究.首先认为地貌区划既是对地貌划分的结果,也是地貌划分的方法与过程,同时还是认识地貌特征和发现地貌规律的一种科学方法.第二,确定新疆地貌区划的主要原则为区域性原则和等级系统原则,选择自下而上的类型合并与自上而下的区域分割相结合,协调使用的区划方法.第三,在区划原则和区划方法的指导下,对新疆地貌类型分布规律进行定性与定量研究,提出基于遥感和GIS技术的新疆地貌区划新方案,将新疆分为6个地貌区、23个地貌亚区和195个地貌小区.结果表明,该地貌区划方案能够体现出新疆各地貌类型及其分布格局,并具有区划等级的系统性,地貌分区的完整性,以及区划界线的准确性等特点.     

山坡蓄量动力学理论及其在水文模拟中的应用前景

山坡地貌特征,即山坡地形曲率的敛散、凹凸等性质,是影响土壤含水量、产流面积空间分布的重要地形控制因子.山坡蓄量动力学理论(Hillslope-storage dynamics)是一种融合地貌特征的山坡水文模拟方法.其引入宽度函数和土壤厚度函数的概念,建立基于土壤蓄水能力的一维山坡蓄量动力学方程,这是采用低维方法描述山坡复杂三维结构的水文响应的一种简化方法,大大降低了模型的复杂程度.该理论解决流域水文模拟的尺度和参数化问题的潜力已经得到重视,但仍需开展尺度效应研究,通过野外观测事实和大量理论分析成果为此项研究提供支撑.     

Critical mechanisms for the formation of extreme arctic sea-ice extent in the summers of 2007 and 1996

Along with significant changes in the Arctic climate system, the largest year-to-year variation in sea-ice extent (SIE) has occurred in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas (defined here as the area of focus, AOF), among which the two highly contrasting extreme events were observed in the summers of 2007 and 1996 during the period 1979–2012. Although most efforts have been devoted to understanding the 2007 low, a contrasting high September SIE in 1996 might share some related but opposing forcing mechanisms. In this study, we investigate the mechanisms for the formation of these two extremes and quantitatively estimate the cloud-radiation-water vapor feedback to the sea-ice-concentration (SIC) variation utilizing satellite-observed sea-ice products and the NASA MERRA reanalysis. The low SIE in 2007 was associated with a persistent anticyclone over the Beaufort Sea coupled with low pressure over Eurasia, which induced anomalous southerly winds. Ample warm and moist air from the North Pacific was transported to the AOF and resulted in positive anomalies of cloud fraction (CF), precipitable water vapor (PWV), surface LWnet (down-up), total surface energy and temperature. In contrast, the high SIE event in 1996 was associated with a persistent low pressure over the central Arctic coupled with high pressure along the Eastern Arctic coasts, which generated anomalous northerly winds and resulted in negative anomalies of above mentioned atmospheric parameters. In addition to their immediate impacts on sea ice reduction, CF, PWV and radiation can interplay to lead to a positive feedback loop among them, which plays a critical role in reinforcing sea ice to a great low value in 2007. During the summer of 2007, the minimum SIC is 31 % below the climatic mean, while the maximum CF, LWnet and PWV can be up to 15 %, 20 Wm^?2, and 4 kg m^?3 above. The high anti-correlations (?0.79, ?0.61, ?0.61) between the SIC and CF, PWV, and LWnet indicate that CF, PWV and LW radiation are indeed having significant impacts on the SIC variation. A new record low occurred in the summer of 2012 was mainly triggered by a super storm over the central Arctic Ocean in early August that caused substantial mechanical ice deformation on top of the long-term thinning of an Arctic ice pack that had become more dominated by seasonal ice.     

遗忘因子自适应最小二乘算法及其在气温预报中的应用

海量数据的利用是建立自适应预报模型的基础,但随着数据的不断增加,新引入数据的作用会逐渐降低,有可能导致预报模型失效。为克服因数据量增加引起的所谓"数据饱和"现象对天气预报效果的影响,本文给出了考虑遗忘因子的线性自适应最小二乘建模算法的原理和方法,并利用该算法进行了最高气温和最低气温预报试验。结果表明,考虑遗忘因子的线性自适应建模算法优于传统的线性自适应建模算法,加入遗忘因子可以避免产生"数据饱和"现象,适当地选择遗忘因子有助于提高模型的预报准确率。     

中国省域尺度17部门资本存量的时空特征分析

随着灾害强度、频率以及承灾体暴露的增加,自然灾害造成的损失日益严重。资本存量作为承灾体的经济暴露指标之一,是灾害损失评估的前提和基础。针对目前中国缺乏省域尺度长时间序列的经济部门分类的资本存量数据基础,论文通过永续盘存法,建立了2003—2015年中国大陆31省17部门的资本存量数据库,并分析其时空特征。结果显示：① 全国总资本存量与灾害直接损失的年际变化均呈增加趋势。省域尺度上,通过相关性分析显示,在99%置信度水平上,两者呈显著正相关(r=0.3)。② 时间上,各省17部门资本存量基本也呈增加趋势,但增速不同。在各部门增速最快的省份中,黑龙江省的居民服务、修理和其他服务业增速最快,增长约454.3倍;其次是青海省的租赁和商务服务业(398.3倍)、江苏省的金融业(295.1倍)、安徽省的科学研究和技术服务业(125.1倍)等。③ 空间上,2015年各省17部门资本存量最多的前4个部门分别是房地产业,工业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,水利、环境和公共设施管理业,占比均在60%以上;且这4个部门资本存量暴露最多的省份是江苏省和广东省。该结果有助于从时空角度了解各省各部门资本存量暴露情况,为各省灾害风险管理者的防灾减灾工作提供重要的参考价值。     

制造业内部产业关联与空间分布关系的实证研究

聚焦于中国制造业内部的产业关联与空间分布,基于《中国投入产出表》中涉及的17个制造业细分行业和中国286个地级市空间单元的统计数据,研究与某一制造业细分行业具有较强产业关联的其他制造业细分行业与其空间分布之间是否存在相关性,并进一步分析产业关联强且具有空间关联的产业组合的主要特征。研究表明,在68个产业关联较强的产业组合中,有39个产业组合具有空间关联;产业关联较强的劳动/劳动密集型制造业和资本/技术密集型制造业更容易呈现空间关联;超过半数的制造业细分行业的产业关联和空间关联的程度之间存在正相关。此外,在产业特征分析基础上,利用GWR模型对39个产业关联强且具有空间关联的产业组合的空间关联度在空间分布上的特征和差异进行分析。结果显示,产业组合的空间关联度较高区域多分布在中等发展水平省区,而在经济发达或欠发达省区分布较少;东北三省区空间关联度较高的产业组合基本一致,产业发展情况较为相似。