RLS-BP人工神经网络算法在降水预报中的应用

RLS—BP是一种新发展起来、自动设置网络主要参数和具有快速收敛能力的人工神经网络模型，用预报对象动态消空处理加以改进，应用于大连地区短中期降水MOS预报，实施了其预报效果与普通BP网络对比的试验。结果表明，改进后的新模型既提高了降水的预报精度，又有良好的计算稳定性．并且适合推广应用于气温、能见度等诸多气象要素的预报和预测问题。     

Climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971-2000

Trends of annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspi-ration and aridity index were analyzed to understand climate change during the period 1971–2000 over the Tibetan Plateau which is one of the most special regions sensitive to global climate change. FAO56–Penmen–Monteith model was modified to calculate potential evapotranspiration which integrated many climatic elements including maximum and mini-mum temperatures, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed. Results indicate gen-erally warming trends of the annual averaged and monthly temperatures, increasing trends of precipitation except in April and September, decreasing trends of annual and monthly poten-tial evapotranspiration, and increasing aridity index except in September. It is not the isolated climatic elements that are important to moisture conditions, but their integrated and simulta-neous effect. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration often changes the effect of precipitation on moisture conditions. The climate trends suggest an important warm and humid tendency averaged over the southern plateau in annual period and in August. Moisture conditions would probably get drier at large area in the headwater region of the three rivers in annual average and months from April to November, and the northeast of the plateau from July to September. Complicated climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau reveal that climatic factors have nonlinear relationships, and resulte in much uncertainty together with the scarcity of observation data. The results would enhance our understanding of the potential impact of climate change on environment in the Tibetan Plateau. Further research of the sensitivity and attribution of climate change to moisture conditions on the plateau is necessary.     

光因子对离心列海链藻生殖的影响

从厦门沿岸分离的离心列海链藻培养体，在光条件下发生在性生殖。实验结果获得，在２０℃温度下诱导该藻雌雄配子形成的最适光强度分别在１１３和３６μＥｉｎ／（ｍ２．ｓ），最适光照时间分别为８和１０ｈ。有性生殖只在３７μｍ宽度以下的细胞中发生，且精囊和卵囊的宽度大小十分相似。     

Spatiotemporal characteristics of sea ice transport in the Baffin Bay and its association with atmospheric variability

Sea ice export through the Baffin Bay plays a vital role in modulating the sea ice cover variability in the Labrador Sea.In this study,satellite-derived sea ice products are used to obtain the sea ice area flux (SIAF) through the three passages in the Baffin Bay (referred to as A,B,and C for the north,middle,and south passages,respectively).The spatial variability of the monthly sea ice drift in the Baffin Bay is presented.The interannual variability and trends in SIAF via the three passages are outlined.The connection to several large-scale atmospheric circulation modes is assessed.Over the period of 1988–2015,the average annual (October to the following September) SIAF amounts to 555×10~3 km~2,642×10~3 km~2,and 551×10~3 km~2 through Passages A,B,and C,respectively.These quantities are less than that observed through the Fram Strait (FS,707×10~3 km~2) of the corresponding period.The positive trends in annual SIAF,on the order of 53.1×10~3 km~2/(10 a) and 43.2×10~3 km~2/(10 a)(significant at the 95%confidence level),are identified at Passages A and B,respectively.The trend of the south passage (C),however,is slightly negative (–13.3×10~3 km~2/(10 a),not statistically significant).The positive trends in annual SIAF through the Passages A and B are primarily attributable to the significant increases after 2000.The connection between the Baffin Bay sea ice export and the North Atlantic Oscillation is not significant over the studied period.By contrast,the association with the cross-gate sea level pressure difference is robust in the Baffin Bay (R equals 0.69 to 0.71,depending on the passages considered),but relatively weaker than that over FS (R=0.74).     

四川九寨沟7.0级地震强震动记录及特征分析

对"国家强震动台网中心"在2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7.0级地震中获取的66组强震记录进行整理、基线校正和滤波等常规处理,分析记录的幅值以及频谱特征。此次地震记录到的强震记录PGA范围0.98~185gal,最大PGA为距震中最近的51JZB(九寨百河台)NS向获取;此次地震仪器烈度范围为0.93~6.8,与四川九寨沟7.0级地震烈度图对比结果显示仪器烈度与宏观调查烈度误差在1度以内;通过观测数据与霍俊荣和第五代《中国地震动参数区划图》地震动衰减关系对比,发现霍俊荣衰减关系更适用于此次地震的加速度衰减;用克里格插值方法绘制了水平向PGA等值线分布图,发现震中附近等值线呈NW向分布;分析了不同震中距和不同场地条件下典型台站的反应谱特性。     

Satellite-observed trends in the Arctic sea ice concentration for the period 1979–2016

Arctic sea ice cover has decreased dramatically over the last three decades. This study quanti?es the sea ice concentration(SIC) trends in the Arctic Ocean over the period of 1979–2016 and analyzes their spatial and temporal variations. During each month the SIC trends are negative over the Arctic Ocean, wherein the largest(smallest) rate of decline found in September(March) is-0.48%/a(-0.10%/a).The summer(-0.42%/a) and autumn(-0.31%/a) seasons show faster decrease rates than those of winter(-0.12%/a) and spring(-0.20%/a) seasons. Regional variability is large in the annual SIC trend. The largest SIC trends are observed for the Kara(-0.60%/a) and Barents Seas(-0.54%/a), followed by the Chukchi Sea(-0.48%/a), East Siberian Sea(-0.43%/a), Laptev Sea(-0.38%/a), and Beaufort Sea(-0.36%/a). The annual SIC trend for the whole Arctic Ocean is-0.26%/a over the same period. Furthermore, the in?uences and feedbacks between the SIC and three climate indexes and three climatic parameters, including the Arctic Oscillation(AO), North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO), Dipole anomaly(DA), sea surface temperature(SST), surface air temperature(SAT), and surface wind(SW), are investigated. Statistically, sea ice provides memory for the Arctic climate system so that changes in SIC driven by the climate indices(AO, NAO and DA) can be felt during the ensuing seasons. Positive SST trends can cause greater SIC reductions, which is observed in the Greenland and Barents Seas during the autumn and winter. In contrast, the removal of sea ice(i.e., loss of the insulating layer) likely contributes to a colder sea surface(i.e., decreased SST), as is observed in northern Barents Sea. Decreasing SIC trends can lead to an in-phase enhancement of SAT, while SAT variations seem to have a lagged in?uence on SIC trends. SW plays an important role in the modulating SIC trends in two ways: by transporting moist and warm air that melts sea ice in peripheral seas(typically evident inthe Barents Sea) and by exporting sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean via passages into the Greenland and Barents Seas, including the Fram Strait, the passage between Svalbard and Franz Josef Land(S-FJL),and the passage between Franz Josef Land and Severnaya Zemlya(FJL-SZ).     

沙尘沉降可能阻滞泥炭地植被的自发演替

以长白山区泥炭地的6种泥炭藓孢子和8种维管植物种子为受试材料,进行室内模拟实验,对比研究了沙尘沉降对泥炭藓孢子和维管植物种子萌发的影响。数据分析显示,施加沙尘抑制除锈色泥炭藓外其他所有泥炭藓孢子的萌发,在接近自然沉降的50 g/(m²·a)水平时,这些泥炭藓孢子的萌发率均下降一半以上。无论沙尘施加量如何,有4种维管植物种子均未萌发。施加沙尘抑制了狭叶杜香（Rhododendron tomentosum）和小白花地榆（Sanguisorba parviflora）种子的萌发,但却对宽叶杜香（Rhododendron palustre）和燕子花（Iris laevigata）种子的萌发呈现一定的促进趋势。研究表明,沙尘沉降可抑制泥炭地泥炭藓孢子和部分典型维管植物种子的萌发,但可能会对非典型的或喜营养的泥炭地维管植物种子萌发产生促进作用。所以,长期存在的沙尘沉降,可能通过提高泥炭地N、Ca水平和pH值的作用,抑制泥炭藓孢子定居,阻滞中国长白山区泥炭地自发演替的进程。     

Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under a high-emissions scenario

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Changes in regional moisture patterns under the impact of climate change are an important focus for science. Based on the five global climate models (GCMs)...     

基于MapInfo的校园地理信息系统的设计与实现

分析了校园信息的特点后,设计了校园信息的分层主属性数据各属性表的结构,介绍了系统的功能,并对多煤体查询,显示及维护功能的实现、学生信息管理功能的实现等技术问题进行了较详细的研究,是建立有校园特色的地理信息系统的有益的探索。