中国综合气候变化风险区划

气候变化作用于自然环境与社会经济系统,产生一系列影响。随着未来社会经济发展,气候变化危险性与自然环境和社会经济承险体耦合形成有规律的风险时空格局。将此时空格局系统化表达即是综合气候变化风险区划,是适应气候变化的科学基础之一。本文基于RCP 8.5下的近中期（2021-2050年）气候情景,分析了中国未来气温和降水变化趋势与速率,评价了干旱、高温热浪以及洪涝等极端事件危险性,选取人口、经济、粮食生产和生态系统等承险体风险作为综合风险定量评估的指标。在系统性、主导因素以及空间连续性原则的指导下,提出中国综合气候变化风险区划三级区域系统方案,划分出8个气候变化敏感区、19个极端事件危险区和46个承险体综合风险区。结果发现：2021-2050年RCP 8.5情景下中国的气候变化高风险区主要包括：华北弱暖增雨敏感区,华北平原热浪危险区,人口经济粮食高风险区;华南—西南弱暖增雨敏感区,黔滇山地热浪危险区,生态经济粮食人口高风险区;华南沿海涝热危险区,生态粮食经济人口高风险区。中国综合气候变化风险区划涵盖了气候变化情景、极端事件发生、社会经济与生态系统的可能损失信息,可以为国家或地方应对气候变化及气候变化风险管理提供科技支撑。     

极端事件对人类系统的影响

在IPCC特别报告《管理极端事件和灾害风险,推进气候变化适应》中,极端天气气候事件对人类系统的影响是最重要的影响评估内容之一,其评估结果为：极端影响可能缘于极端天气气候事件,但也可能并非极端事件的后果。暴露度和脆弱性是灾害风险的重要决定因素;极端和非极端天气气候事件的严重程度和影响在很大程度上取决于对这些事件的脆弱性和暴露度水平;人居模式、城市化和社会经济状况的变化已经影响观测到的脆弱性和暴露度的变化趋势;无论在发达国家还是发展中国家,沿海人居环境均暴露于极端事件,并受其影响,如小岛屿国家和亚洲大三角洲地区;脆弱人口还包括难民、国内流离失所的人和那些生活在边远地区的人;极端事件将极大地影响与气候联系密切的部门,如水、农业、食物安全、健康和旅游业。     

Eco-geographical Regionalization of China:An Approach Using the Rough Set Method

Eco-geographical regionalization involves dividing land into regions by considering both intra-regional consistency and interregional disparity and is based on the pattern of differentiation of eco-geographical elements.Owing to the complexity of the land surface,and the limitation of data and appropriate methods,regions in China have hitherto been mapped manually,meaning that the process of mapping was non-repeatable.To make the regionalization technique repeatable,this study aimed to extract and quantify the expert knowledge of regionalization using an automated method.The rough set method was adopted to extract rules of regionalization based on the existing eco-geographical regionalization map of China,as well as its corresponding meteorological and geological datasets.Then,the rules for regionalization were obtained hierarchically for each natural domain,each temperature zone,and each humidity region.Owing to differences in zonal differentiation,the rule extraction sequence for the eastern monsoon zone and Tibetan Alpine zone was temperature zone first followed by humidity region,with the reverse order being applied for the northwest arid/semi-arid zone.Results show that the extracted indicators were similar to those of the existing(expert-produced)regionalization scheme but more comprehensive.The primary indicator for defining temperature zones was the≥10℃ growing season,and the secondary indicators were the January and July mean temperatures.The primary and secondary indicators for identifying humid regions were aridity index and precipitation,respectively.Eco-geographical regions were mapped over China using these rules and the gridded indicators.Both the temperature zones and humidity regions mapped by the rules show≥85%consistency with the existing regionalization,which is higher than values for mapping by the commonly used simplified method that uses the classification of one indicator.This study demonstrates that the proposed rough set method can establish eco-geographical regionalization that is quantitative and repeatable and able to dynamically updated.     

储液池的抗震问题探讨

应用流体固体动力耦合统一分析模型的有限元法，进行了储液池的抗震分析。分别探讨了储液池内液体的液面大幅波动、池壁刚度变化、池的深宽比等对地震响应的影响。研究结果表明：储液池壁刚度是比较敏感的物理量，弹性比刚性池壁与液体相互作用的非线性行为强，池壁所受流体的作用力大；液面波的影响也有同样规律，刚性池壁情况下考虑面波与否影响不太大，但弹性池壁却有较大影响；另外宽池比窄池的响应强。     

Progress and prospects of applied research on physical geography and the living environment in China over the past 70 years (1949–2019)

Physical geography is a basic research subject of natural sciences.Its research object is the natural environment which is closely related to human living and development,and China's natural environment is complex and diverse.According to national needs and regional development,physical geographers have achieved remarkable achievements in applied basis and applied research,which also has substantially contributed to the planning of national economic growth and social development,the protection of macro ecosystems and resources,and sustainable regional development.This study summarized the practice and application of physical geography in China over the past 70 years in the following fields:regional differences in natural environments and physical regionalization;land use and land cover changes;natural hazards and risk reduction;process and prevention of desertification;upgrading of medium-and low-yield fields in the Huang-Huai-Hai region;engineering construction in permafrost areas; geochemical element anomalies and the prevention and control of endemic diseases;positioning and observation of hysical geographical elements;and identification of geospatial differentiation and geographical detectors. Furthermore, we have proposed the future direction of applied research in the field of physical geography.     

多向地震作用下隔震配电建筑物的非线性动力反应分析

本文结合我国首例将隔震技术应用于变电建筑物的工程———西安市330kV西北郊变电站110kV配电楼工程,研究隔震结构在多向地震作用下的非线性动力反应,并把计算结果与单向地震作用的结果进行分析比较。结果表明,本工程采用隔震技术是可行的,采用基础隔震措施可有效地控制结构的偏心扭转效应,使屋面层及楼面层的运动规律趋于一致,建筑物整体趋于平动,同时还可显著降低上部结构及电气设备的地震作用,并且在多向地震作用下的结果比单向地震作用时的隔震效果更加合理。目前该工程已竣工投产,本文工作将为隔震技术在电力系统的更广泛应用打下一个良好的基础。     

Duration effect of near-fault pulse-like ground motions and identification of most suitable duration measure

The duration effect of near-fault pulse-like ground motions on structural demands and the identification of most suitable duration measure are systematically addressed in this paper. Firstly, the duration effect of the Mavroeidis & Papageorgiou (M&P) pulse on the normalized maximum displacement and normalized hysteretic energy of elastic-perfectly-plastic, bilinear and rigid-plastic (i.e., Newmark sliding block) single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems is analyzed by using dimensional analysis. Particularly, an intrinsic length scale is proposed to present well the normalized responses. It is shown that the duration effect of M&P pulses on the normalized responses is affected by the frequency ratio and normalized yield displacement. Generally, the duration effect is significant on the normalized hysteretic energy, whereas it is not remarkable on the normalized maximum displacement of ordinary inelastic SDOF systems, except for the normalized sliding displacement of Newmark sliding blocks. Then, a set of 65 spectrally equivalent strongest near-fault ground motions is input to the aforementioned SDOF systems, and the correlation analysis between seismic responses and duration measures is conducted. It is shown that the associated results are consistent with those obtained by dimensional analysis. Moreover, the uniform duration generally presents the best correlation with seismic demands, and thus is identified as the most suitable duration measure. Finally, the correlation statements are further validated on three 5-, 10-, and 20-story shear frame buildings with strength and stiffness degradation under spectrally equivalent ground motions.     

Major advances in studies of the physical geography and living environment of China during the past 70 years and future prospects

The natural environment provides material essentials for human survival and development. The characteristics,processes, regional differentiation and forcing mechanisms of the elements of the natural environment(e.g. geomorphology,climate, hydrology, soil, etc.) are the main objects of research in physical geography. China has a complex natural environment and huge regional differentiation and therefore it provides outstanding reserach opportunities in physical geography. This review summarizes the most important developments and the main contributions of research in the physical geography and human living environment in China during the past 70 years. The major topics addressed are the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and the evolution of its cryosphere, the development of fluvial systems, the acidification of the vast arid region of the Asian interior, variations in the monsoon and westerly climate systems on multiple timescales, the development of lakes and wetlands, the watershed system model, soil erosion, past human-environment interactions, biogeography, and physical geographic zonality. After briefly introducing international research developments, we review the history of research in physical geography in China, focusing on the major achievements and major academic debates, and finally we summarize the status of current research and the future prospects. We propose that in the context of the national demand for the construction of an ecological civilization, we should make full use of the research findings of physical geography, and determine the patterns and mechanisms of natural environmental processes in order to continue to promote the continued contribution of physical geography to national development strategies, and to further contribute to the theory of physical geography from a global perspective.     

中国干湿格局对未来高排放情景下气候变化响应的敏感性

气候变化影响下干湿状况的区域分异格局如何变化是一个重要科学问题。基于参与耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的5个全球气候模式(GCM),预估了RCP 8.5情景下未来百年中国干湿区面积的变化趋势,分析了干湿格局变化的敏感地区以及对气候变化响应的敏感性。结果表明:未来干湿格局变化以湿润区显著减少、干湿过渡区显著扩张为主要特征,特别是半湿润区面积在远期(2070-2099年)相对基准期(1981-2010年)增加了28.69%。升温2℃～4℃条件下,全国发生干湿类型转变的面积从10.17%增加至13.72%,尤其在淮河流域南部,这里主要受未来潜在蒸散增加的影响,湿润区向南明显退缩从而转变为半湿润区。总体上,随着未来升温加剧,中国干湿格局对气候变化响应的敏感性将可能增强。     

Satellite-observed trends in the Arctic sea ice concentration for the period 1979–2016

Arctic sea ice cover has decreased dramatically over the last three decades. This study quanti?es the sea ice concentration(SIC) trends in the Arctic Ocean over the period of 1979–2016 and analyzes their spatial and temporal variations. During each month the SIC trends are negative over the Arctic Ocean, wherein the largest(smallest) rate of decline found in September(March) is-0.48%/a(-0.10%/a).The summer(-0.42%/a) and autumn(-0.31%/a) seasons show faster decrease rates than those of winter(-0.12%/a) and spring(-0.20%/a) seasons. Regional variability is large in the annual SIC trend. The largest SIC trends are observed for the Kara(-0.60%/a) and Barents Seas(-0.54%/a), followed by the Chukchi Sea(-0.48%/a), East Siberian Sea(-0.43%/a), Laptev Sea(-0.38%/a), and Beaufort Sea(-0.36%/a). The annual SIC trend for the whole Arctic Ocean is-0.26%/a over the same period. Furthermore, the in?uences and feedbacks between the SIC and three climate indexes and three climatic parameters, including the Arctic Oscillation(AO), North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO), Dipole anomaly(DA), sea surface temperature(SST), surface air temperature(SAT), and surface wind(SW), are investigated. Statistically, sea ice provides memory for the Arctic climate system so that changes in SIC driven by the climate indices(AO, NAO and DA) can be felt during the ensuing seasons. Positive SST trends can cause greater SIC reductions, which is observed in the Greenland and Barents Seas during the autumn and winter. In contrast, the removal of sea ice(i.e., loss of the insulating layer) likely contributes to a colder sea surface(i.e., decreased SST), as is observed in northern Barents Sea. Decreasing SIC trends can lead to an in-phase enhancement of SAT, while SAT variations seem to have a lagged in?uence on SIC trends. SW plays an important role in the modulating SIC trends in two ways: by transporting moist and warm air that melts sea ice in peripheral seas(typically evident inthe Barents Sea) and by exporting sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean via passages into the Greenland and Barents Seas, including the Fram Strait, the passage between Svalbard and Franz Josef Land(S-FJL),and the passage between Franz Josef Land and Severnaya Zemlya(FJL-SZ).