An application of the threshold autoregression procedure to climate analysis and forecasting

In this paper a nonlinear method of time series analysis-threshold autoregressive (TAR) model in discrete time is used. The TAR procedure consists of four parts: model building, statistical identification, parameter estimation and forecasting.The object of this study is to estimate monthly total precipitation of Shanghai and Beijing by using open loop TAR model. We can see that the trend of forecasting is in agreement with observations.     

唐山地震前兆场的分布特征

本文对唐山地震昌黎等七个台的地电阻率日均值时间序列进行了关联维计算．取每年为一个时间段，其目的在于探索分数维对地震各个阶段的反应，以便达到利用分数维进行地震预报的目的。计算结果表明大部分地电台的地电阻率在地震前有明显的降维特征。通过地震前后七个台的地电阻率分数维的变化，得到了地震前后前兆场的分布特征，这一结果对于未来震源区的判定有重要意义。     

BP神经网络的训练样本集容量

本文试图解释用ＢＰ神经网络解界面反问题时效果不佳的原因。文中首先从信息量的角度提出了ＢＰ神经网络训练本集容量的概念，给出了它的定义及组织训练样本集时应遵循的原则和方法。对于如何用ＢＰ神经网络解界面反问题，给出了其基本步骤，并根据上述训练样本集容量的概念及界面反总理的特殊性，给出了组织界面反问题训练样本集的方法。     

浅层地温误读的分析与判断

作者介绍了在多年地面信息资料处理中积累的关于浅层地温误读的分析与判断经验，总结出人机结合的５个分析判断方法，在工作中收到了良好效果，从而保证了信息资料和气表资料的准确性。     

A CASE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EVOLVING INTO A VORTEX*

A case of mesoscale convective complex(MCC) which evolved into a vortex is documented in this paper.As the MCC entered into the dissipating phase,a well-defined spirally banded structure became visible in the satellite image.The blackbody temperature(TBB) of the residual cold-cloud-shield indicates the vortex existed in the layer from 400 to 250 hPa.According to the upper air analysis,the upper level vortex was an anticyclone.The MCC-generated vortex was visualized in the satellite images because it was located in the subtropical high where the wind field was very weak.     

结构模糊随机可靠度的实用计算方法

本文以模糊随机变量为基本变量，定义了结构的模糊随机功能函数，分析了结构有效状态与失效状态之间的模糊性，建立了结构的模糊随机极限状态方程。利用序关系给出单失效模式结构的模糊安全准则，讨论了ａ－约束水平条件下单失效模式结构的失效概率、可靠度及可靠指标，进而得出结构的模糊随机失效概率、模糊随机可靠度及模糊可靠指标等。本文给出的具体计算方法和目前设计规范中彩的方法是相对应的。     

Physicochemical parameter charts for gases in fluid inclusions

A great wealth of analytical data for fluid inclusions in minerals indicate that the major species of gases in fluid inclusions are H₂O, CO₂, CO, CH₄, H₂ and O₂. Three basic chemical reactions are supposed to prevail in rock-forming and ore-forming fluids: $$\begin{gathered} H_2 + 1/2{\text{ O}}_{\text{2}} = H_2 O, \hfill \\ CO + 1/2{\text{ O}}_{\text{2}} = CO_2 , \hfill \\ CH_4 + 2{\text{O}}_{\text{2}} = CO_2 + 2H_2 O, \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ and equilibria are reached among them. \(\lg f_{O_2 } - T,{\text{ }}\lg f_{CO_2 } - T\) and Eh-T charts for petrogenesis and minerogenesis in the supercritical state have been plotted under different pressures. On the basis of these charts \(f_{O^2 } ,{\text{ }}f_{CO_2 } \) , Eh, equilibrium temperature and equilibrium pressure can be readily calculated. In this paper some examples are presented to show their successful application in the study of the ore-forming environments of ore deposits.     

Isotopic geochronology of mesozoic acid volcanic rocks in Zhejiang Province,China

Volcano-sedimentary series of the Upper Jurassic to the Lower Cretaceous are extensively developed in Zhejiang Province. But ages and stratigraphic correlation concerning these rocks have long been a controversial problem. Systematic sampling was made of volcanic rocks of the Laocun, Huangjian, Shouchang and Moshishan Formations in western Zhejiang considered thus far as the Late Jurassic. Isotopic age determinations show that U-Th-Pb zircon ages are approximately concordant with Rb-Sr isochron ages, whereas K-Ar biotite ages and K-Ar isochron ages are all slightly lower. It can therefore be established that the ages of volcanic rocks mentioned above range from 134±6 to 122±2 m.y., corresponding to the “transitional period” from Jurassic to Cretaceous. It can also be concluded that the rocks have not undergone apparent epigenetic metamorphism. The initial⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio is about 0.7089–0.7121, on the basis of which it may be postulated that the volcanic magma seems to have originated from the upper mantle with contamination by sialic materials subsequent to differentiation. For age determinations of such acid volcanic rocks Rb-Sr isochron method is considered more suitable in view of its following advantages: the high reliability of results; wide applicability to different samples; smaller sample requirement and the possibility for further studies involving petrogenesis by use of initial⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio.     

层状暖云降雨及其催化的数值模拟

本文提出层状暖云降水的一维时变模式,用数值试验方法探讨了层状暖云降水的临界条件,各种物理参量对降水过程的作用以及播撒盐粉的增雨效果和最佳催化技术。     

500毫巴湿位势倾向诊断分析和应用

本文用湿位势倾向方程进行诊断分析,表明,湿大气中差动潜热能平流对500毫巴湿位势倾向有重要影响。日常业务中计算500毫巴层位势倾向,在判断未来低值系统的移动和暴雨落区中,有一定指示意义。