Progress in Predictability Studies in China （2003-2006）

Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly(2003),predictability studies in China have made significant progress.For dynamic forecasts,two novel approaches of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents were proposed to cope with the predictability problems of weather and climate,which are superior to the corresponding linear theory.A possible mechanism for the"spring predictability barrier"phenomenon for the El Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)was provided based on a theoretical model.To improve the forecast skill of an intermediate coupled ENSO model,a new initialization scheme was developed,and its applicability was illustrated by hindcast experiments.Using the reconstruction phase space theory and the spatio-temporal series predictive method, Chinese scientists also proposed a new approach to improve dynamical extended range(monthly)prediction and successfully applied it to the monthly-scale predictability of short-term climate variations.In statistical forecasts,it was found that the effects of sea surface temperature on precipitation in China have obvious spatial and temporal distribution features,and that summer precipitation patterns over east China are closely related to the northern atmospheric circulation.For ensemble forecasts,a new initial perturbation method was used to forecast heavy rain in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces on 8 June 1998.Additionally, the ensemble forecast approach was also used for the prediction of a tropical typhoons.A new downscaling model consisting of dynamical and statistical methods was provided to improve the prediction of the monthly mean precipitation.This new downsealing model showed a relatively higher score than the issued operational forecast.     

基于遥感技术的城市扩展变化研究

以1975年的MSS影像、1992年的TM影像和2004年的中巴资源卫星影像为数据源,对北京市建成区近30 a的扩展变化进行动态监测,运用计算机监督分类技术提取了北京市建成区30 a来的扩展变化信息,并分析出北京市建成区的变化是以老市区为中心向四周辐射蔓延的规律,为北京市未来城市规划与开发提供参考。     

Formation of iron sulfide nodules during anaerobic oxidation of methane

The biomarker compositions of iron sulfide nodules (ISNs; upper Pliocene Valle Ricca section near Rome, Italy) that contain the ferrimagnetic mineral greigite (Fe₃S₄) were examined. In addition to the presence of specific terrestrial and marine biomarkers, consistent with formation in coastal marine sediments, these ISNs contain compounds thought to originate from sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB). These compounds include a variety of low-molecular-weight and branched alkanols and several non-isoprenoidal dialkyl glycerol diethers (DGDs). In addition, archaeal biomarkers, including archaeol, macrocyclic isoprenoidal DGDs and isoprenoidal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers are also present. Both SRB and archaeal lipid δ¹³C values are depleted in ¹³C (δ¹³C values are typically less than −50‰), which suggests that the SRB and archaea consumed ¹³C depleted methane. These biomarker and isotopic signatures are similar to those found in cold seeps and marine sediments where anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) occurs with sulfate serving as the terminal electron acceptor. Association of AOM with formation of greigite-containing ISNs could provide an explanation for documented remagnetization of the Valle Ricca sediments. Upward migration of methane, subsequent AOM and associated authigenic greigite formation are widespread processes in the geological record that have considerable potential to compromise paleomagnetic records.     

Changes in major element hydrochemistry of the Pecos River in the American Southwest since 1935

The Pecos River, situated in eastern New Mexico and western Texas, receives water from a drainage area of 91 000 km². There are primarily two major water inputs, namely snowmelt from winter storms in the headwater region of the southern Rocky Mountains and runoff from warm-season monsoonal rainfall in the lower valley. The Pecos River suffers from high levels of total dissolved solids (TDS >5000 mg L⁻¹) under normal flow conditions. This not only poses serious problems for agricultural irrigation and safe drinking water supply, but also results in a permanent loss of biodiversity. This study examines changes in stream flow and water chemistry of the Pecos River over the last 70 a to better understand the long-term variability in stream salinity and the role of agricultural practices in salt transfer. A TDS record from the lower Pecos River near Langtry (Texas) back to 1935 was extracted to show a distinct pattern of decadal variability similar to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), in which stream salinity is overall above average when the PDO is in positive (warm) phase and below average when the PDO is in negative (cold) phase. This is due to: (1) the dissolved salts contributed to the river are largely from dissolution of NaCl and CaSO₄-bearing minerals (e.g., halite and gypsum) in the upper basin, (2) the amount of the dissolved salts that reach the lower basin is mainly determined by the stream flow yield in the upper basin and (3) the stream flow yield from the upper basin is positively correlated with the PDO index. This further attests that large-scale climatic oscillation is the major source of long-term changes in stream flow and salinity of the Pecos River. On the other hand, there is also a strong indication that the rate of salt export has been affected by reservoir operations and water diversions for agricultural practices.     

Speciation and potential remobilization of heavy metals in sediments of the Taihu Lake, China

The species of Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd and Cr in sediments of the Taihu Lake, China, have been analyzed using the sequential chemical extraction method. Variations in the chemical fractions of these metals and their geographic distributions have also been studied. For all five metals, the residual fraction is highest but the exchangeable fraction is lowest among all the fractions. Compared to other metals, Cd has the highest percentage in the exchangeable fraction, and Cr is associated mainly with the residual fraction. Cu in the organic fraction and Pb in the Fe-Mn fraction are the important species, whereas the lowest percentages are found for Cd in the organic fraction, Cu in the Fe-Mn oxide fraction and Pb in the carbonate fraction. With respect to spatial differences, the total contents in the non-residual fractions of the metals in bay sediments are found to be higher than those in other sediments. The fractions of Cd, Cu and Cr showed significant variations in different regions. The fractions of Pb and Zn, however, did not show significant variations in spatial distribution, suggesting different amounts and different paths of anthropogenic input for the metals. Comparisons of the metal speciation indicated that Cd might be the most bioavailable metal, followed by Pb.     

基于弯道超高计算泥石流流速的探讨

泥石流流速是难以实测和准确推算的重要参数。在分析既有各类弯道超高计算公式的基础上,探讨适用于各类泥石流的弯道超高计算模式,进而改进基于弯道超高的粘性泥石流、稀性泥石流和泥流的流速计算公式,用实例加以验证。     

LBM钻井液在绳索取心钻进中的应用

LBM钻井液是一种低粘度低失水量的高效造浆材料，通过在绳索取心中应用，证明了LBM钻井液具有良好的抑制水敏性地层膨胀与分散的能力．可有效防止粘附卡钻事故及解决钻杆内壁结垢问题．是绳索取心钻进较理想的钻井液材料。     

Statistical features of aftershock distribution size for moderate and large earthquakes in Chinese mainland

Based on data of earthquake sequences with MS≥5.0 in Chinese mainland from 1970 to 2004,for different se-quence types and different rupture modes of the main shock,the relationship between aftershock distribution size Rand the magnitude of the main shock M0 has been studied statistically.Considering the rupture mode of the mainshock,we give the quantitative statistical relationships between R and M0 under 95%confidence level for differentsequence types.Qualitatively,lgR,the logarithm of the aftershock distribution size,is positively correlative to theM0,but the data distribution is dispersed.Viewing from different sequence types,the correlation between R and M0is very weak for isolated earthquake type(IET)sequence,R distributes in the range from 5 to 60 km;For main-shock-aftershock type(MAT),lgR is positively correlative to M0;For multiple main shock type(MMT),the core-lation between lgR and M0 is not very obvious when M0≤6.2 and R distributes in the range from 5 to 70 km,whileit shows a linear correlation when M0≥6.3.The statistical results also show that the occupational ratios of differentsequence types for strike-slip and oblique slip are almost the same.But for dip-slip(mostly are thrust mechanisms),the ratio of MAT is higher than that of IET and MMT.Comparing with previous results,it indicates that,when M0is large enough,R is mainly determined by M0 and there is almost no relationship with the rupture mode of themain shock.     

不同标度震级关系和台基影响问题探讨

利用近年中国数字地震台网观测报告中的中国及邻区地震目录资料,取能够同时计算面波震级MS和近震震级ML的地震,拟合出2种震级之间的关系,发现与过去使用30余年的换算公式存在系统差别。考虑现代化地震数字观测系统有动态范围大、频带宽、台站多、覆盖区域广、测定精度高的特点,由此拟合的关系应当更可靠。考虑不同误差因素统计面波震级MS和近震震级ML的关系表明,2种震级之间换算和不换算的差别并不大,因此建议MS和ML震级之间不换算为宜。分析地震台站的场地响应发现:一些基岩台的放大因子在1附近,场地响应不随频率变化;处于沉积土层的台站,放大因子在低频段大于1,高频段小于1;还有一些台站在某个频段范围大于1,或者小于1。另外,沉积土层台站的单台震级和台网平均震级差也随周期增大,呈现由负到正的增长趋势。看来并不存在固定的台站校正系数,因此不能把台站校正作为提高震级测定精度的方法。     

中国大陆中强以上地震余震分布尺度的统计特征

依据1970年以来记录相对完备的MSge;5.0地震序列资料，统计研究了中国大陆余震分布尺度与序列最大地震震级M0及最大地震破裂形式之间的关系. 在95%置信概率下，考虑主震破裂形式， 分序列类型给出了余震分布尺度与M0之间的统计关系. 定性而言，余震分布尺度的对数lgR与M0正相关， 但数据分布较为离散. 分类型来看， 孤立型序列余震分布尺度与M0之间统计相关程度低， 余震分布尺度介于5~60 km之间； 主余型序列lgR与M0正相关； 多震型序列当M0le;6.2时lgR与M0之间相关性不显著，余震分布尺度介于5~70 km之间， 当M0ge;6.3时lgR与M0线性相关. 统计结果还表明， 走滑近走滑及斜滑型主震所导致序列类型比例之间没有显著差异，而倾滑近倾滑型主震（主要为逆断型破裂）所导致的主余型序列所占比例较高， 孤立型及多震型序列所占比例则相对较低. 对比研究显示， 当M0较高时，余震分布尺度主要取决于主震大小而与主震破裂形式关系不明显.