SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

Application of Grain Size Analysis to Study Sedimentary Environment of Sand Dune in the Vicinity of Tumen River

The dunes in estuary of Tumen River in China lie to the area between the Jiushaping and Fangchuan in the left bank of Tumen River (Fig.1). The dis-tance is about 15～20 km between the dunes and the coast. It ranges from China to D. P. R. Korea and Russia. The range of the height of dunes is about 15～20 m and the width is 100～200 m. By the re-connaissance, we protracted 9 section planes of the dunes and collected 40 sand samples of the dunes, and identified the sedimentary environment …     

Three Super Active Regions in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle.     

彗星等离子体某些特征的讨论

本文讨论了彗星中尘埃粒子的充电机制 ,带电特性和平衡电势的变化规律 ,分析了彗星尘埃的破碎特性和临界半径 ,得出了很有意义的结果     

Characters of the Pco2 and CO2 Flux in the East China Sea in Autumn

Pco2 of air and seawater samples from the East China Sea(ECS) were measured in situ in autumn, 1994,Ocean currents,terrestrial fluviation,biological activities,etc.,Pco2 char-acters in air and seawater were investigated,CO2 flux and its character in the East China Sea are discussed on the basis of the Pco2 profiles of air and seawater,It was clear that the nearshore was the source of CO2;and tht the oulter sea area was the sink of CO2; and that the shelf area of the EXS is a net sink for atmospheric CO2 in autumn.     

STUDY ON THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NDVI PROFILE AND THE GROWING STATUS OF CROPS

Daily and ten-day Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) of crops were retrieved from meteorological statellite NOAA AVHRR images ,The temporal variations of the NDVI were analyzed during the whole growing season,and thus the principle of the interaction between NDIV profile and the growing status of crops was discussed,As a case in point,the relationship between integral NDVI and winter wheat yield of Henan Province in 1999 had been analyzed.By putting integral NDVI values of 60 sample counties into the winter wheat yield-integral NDVI coordination,scattering map was plotted. It demonstrated that integral NDVI had a close relation with winter wheat yield.These relation could be described with linear,cubic polynomial ,and exponential regression,and the cubic polynomial regression was the best way,In general ,NDVI reflects growing status of green vegetation ,so crop monitoring and crop yield estimation could be realized by using remote sensing technique on the basis of time serial NDVI data together with agriculture calendars.     

γ射线暴研究概况

γ射线暴(简称γ暴)的研究自1997年以来由于余辉的发现而有了很大的突破。在此，对γ暴的观测作了简要的概述，而对γ暴的理论进展和存在问题进行了较为全面的评述，内容包括γ暴本身、余辉、能源机制、寄主星系、暴周环境、高能粒子和引力波辐射、宇宙学意义等。     

DISASTER ANALYSIS AND COUNTERMEASURES OF LAND SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY COAL CUTTING IN CHINA

In recent years, many coal-producing countries have paid great attention to the land subsidence causedby coal cutting. In China, because of the dense population in coalfield areas, the land subsidence hazard is more seri-ous. After a brief analysis on the mechanism of land subsidence, this paper gives a comprehensive and systematical ac-count on all kinds of hazards caused by the land subsidence in China. The study shows that land subsidence has endan-gered land, buildings, traffic and communication lines, dykes and dams. It also causes damage to ecological and socialenvironment. In order to lessen the hazard of land subsidence, preventive measures should be taken to reduce the col-lapse amount, such as extraction with stowing, banded mining system, succession and coordination mining system, orhigh-pressure mudflow between rock strata. Measures of reinforcing or moving certain buildings should also be taken toreduce the destructive degree. In order to harness the subsidence land and bring them under control for fanning, mea-sures should be taken such as filling with spoil or fine breeze, excavating the deeper and covering the shallower land.     

SORPTION AND DESORPTION CHARACTERISTICS OF CADMIUM BY FOUR DIFFERENT SOILS IN NORTHEAST CHINA

1IN TR O D U C TIO NA s a persistentand toxic pollutant, cadm ium (C d) canresultin m any adverse health effects in a variety oftis-suesand organssuch asthe lung,kidney,urinary,blad-der,pancreas,breast and prostate (SA TA R U G etal.,2003).C adm ium in so…     

Seasonal and annual variation of CO2 flux above a broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest

Long-term measurement of carbon metabolism of old-growth forests is critical to predict their behaviors and to reduce the uncertainties of carbon accounting under changing climate. Eddy covariance technology was applied to investigate the long-term carbon exchange over a 200 year-old Chinese broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest in the Changbai Mountains (128°28′E and 42°24′N, Jilin Province, P. R. China) since August 2002. On the data obtained with open-path eddy covariance system and CO₂ profile measurement system from Jan. 2003 to Dec. 2004, this paper reports (i) annual and seasonal variation of F _NEE, F _GPP and R _E; (ii) regulation of environmental factors on phase and amplitude of ecosystem CO₂ uptake and release Corrections due to storage and friction velocity were applied to the eddy carbon flux.

L_AI and soil temperature determined the seasonal and annual dynamics of F_GPP and R_E separately. V_PD and air temperature regulated ecosystem photosynthesis at finer scales in growing seasons. Water condition at the root zone exerted a significant influence on ecosystem maintenance carbon metabolism of this forest in winter.

The forest was a net sink of atmospheric CO₂ and sequestered −449 g C·m⁻² during the study period; −278 and −171 gC·m⁻² for 2003 and 2004 respectively. F _GPP and F _RE over 2003 and 2004 were −1332, −1294 g C·m⁻². and 1054, 1124 g C·m⁻² respectively. This study shows that old-growth forest can be a strong net carbon sink of atmospheric CO₂.

There was significant seasonal and annual variation in carbon metabolism. In winter, there was weak photosynthesis while the ecosystem emitted CO₂. Carbon exchanges were active in spring and fall but contributed little to carbon sequestration on an annual scale. The summer is the most significant season as far as ecosystem carbon balance is concerned. The 90 days of summer contributed 66.9, 68.9% of F _GPP, and 60.4, 62.1% of R _E of the entire year.