陕西省精细化预报评分系统

Web日志数据包括：客户端浏览器日志记录、网站服务器访问记录、代理服务器日志记录、用户注册信息等。Web日志挖掘分为：数据预处理、模式发现、模式分析三个阶段。本文意在讨论这三个阶段所遇到的问题和解决办法。     

南海夏季风爆发与热带海洋海温和大气环流异常变化关系的研究

用合成和相关分析方法及SVD技术研究了南海夏季风爆发早、晚年份4～6月季风建立时期季风环流的异常及其与热带太平洋-印度洋海温的关系。结果表明,南海夏季风爆发与热带大气环流和海温变异密切相关。（1）当热带中、东太平洋—印度洋（主要在西南部）及南海海温低（高）,西太平洋—澳洲邻近海域海温高（低）时,南海夏季风爆发早（晚）。不同区域海温对季风的影响有明显的季节差异,印度洋主要为晚春至初夏（4～6月）,南海为5～6月,而热带太平洋从前冬一直持续到夏季。（2）不同的海温异常产生不同的季风环流型,南海夏季风爆发早、晚年大气环流的异常变化基本相反。南海夏季风的活动主要受印度季风环流变化的影响,与前期冬春季西太副高的强弱及位置变化密切相关。西太副高弱时,南海夏季风爆发早;反之,爆发晚。（3）热带太平洋—印度洋海温异常引起季风环流和Walker环流的异常变化可能是影响南海夏季风爆发早、晚的物理过程。     

新疆西昆仑喀拉阿特河一带玛尔坎雀库塞山组的厘定

新疆西昆仑喀拉阿特河一带前人确立的下二叠统(未分)中发现一套火山岩夹碳酸盐岩、碎屑岩沉积建造,与上覆昆盖依套组呈断层接触,与下伏喀拉阿特河组呈平行不整合接触。该套地层在岩石组合、生物面貌、沉积环境、接触关系等方面独立成组,灰岩内采集狭体贝(未定种)Stenoscisma sp.;小戟贝(未定种)Chonetinella sp.;韦勒贝(未定种)Wellerella sp.;扇房贝(未定种)Rhipidomella sp.;股窗贝(未定种)Crurithyris sp.;印度胡斯台贝Hustedia indica(Waagen);胡斯台贝(未定种)Hustedia sp.;扭曲虫Plectogyra sp.;拟犬齿珊瑚Paracania sp.等,时代为早二叠世,故将其从下二叠系(未分)解体出,厘定为玛尔坎雀库塞山组。该套地层单位的确立,为区域填图、建立岩石地层单位,及本区地层划分和区域对比提供了新依据。     

松南气田登娄库—泉头组天然气成藏特征分析

松南气田位于松辽盆地南部长岭断陷中央隆起带达尔罕断凸带腰英台深层构造高部位.通过分析解剖烃源岩、输导等,认为松南气田登娄库—泉头组天然气藏具有双向供烃的特征;达尔罕断裂是控制气藏规模的主断裂,它的开启与封闭直接决定天然气藏的形成保存及破坏散失.在典型气藏解剖的基础上,综合油气成藏条件,总结了成藏规律：多期生烃,北、西次凹供烃、近距离运移,长期运移指向、聚集,深层储盖组合匹配.     

Long-term variabilities of thermodynamic structure of the East China Sea Cold Eddy in summer

Based on more than 30 years observed sectional temperature data since the 1960s, and compared with multi-year wind and Changjiang (Yangtze) River discharge data, spatial-temporal variations of the East China Sea Cold Eddy (ECSCE) in summer was analyzed in relationship to ocean circulation and local atmospheric circulation. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analyseswere applied to this study. The results show that: l) The ECSCE in summer possesses significant interannual variabilities, which are directly associated with oceanic and atmospheric circulation anomaly. Main fluctuations demonstrate their falling in basically with E1 Nino events (interannual) and interdecadal variability. 2) The ECSCE in summer is closely related to the variation of the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) and the Changjiang River discharge. The stronger the YSWC, the more intensive the ECSCE with its center shifting westward,and vice versa. However, a negative correlation between the Changjiang River discharge and the ECSCE strength is shown. The ECSCE was strengthened after the abrupt global climate change affected by the interdecadal variation of the YSWC. 3) SVD analysis suggested a high correlation between the variation of the ECSCE in summer and the anomalous cyclonic atmospheric circulation over the ECS. Intensification of the cyclonic wind strengthens the ECSCE, and vice versa. 4) The cyclonic atmospheric circulation has dominant influence on the interannual variation of the ECSCE, and the influence of the ocean circulation takes the second in. The ECSCE was usually stronger in E1 Nifio years affected by strong cyclonic circulation in the atmosphere. The variation in strength of the ECSCE resulted from the joint effect of both oceanic and atmospheric circulation.     

Mechanism of sinkhole formation during groundwater-level recovery in karst mining area,Dachengqiao, Hunan province,China

The Meitanba Coal Mine area in Hunan province, China, had been impacted by severe cover collapse sinkholes since 1982 due to mine dewatering. After the coal mine was closed in February 2015, the groundwater level has increased significantly. A series of sinkholes were recorded in the study area during groundwater-level recovery. Analysis of monitoring results and in-situ investigation indicated that 13 sinkhole collapses were more likely induced by abrupt change of groundwater–air pressure in response to heavy rainfall from March 2015 to July 2016 when the groundwater level increased by as much as 76 m. When the karst conduit was flooded, a relatively sealed environment was formed between saturated sediments and flooded karst conduit. Implosion of entrapped air might have caused the cave roof to collapse followed by surface collapses in a short time. On the other hand, four sinkholes occurred in November 2016 when the groundwater levels were near the soil–bedrock interface at elevations between 52.5 and 58.9 m amsl and the groundwater-level increase was at slower paces. Field measurements indicate that the groundwater-level fluctuation at the soil–bedrock interface could enlarge the soil cavity and accelerate the subsoil erosion process.     

广西石炭纪早期下垌村珊瑚礁基本特征及其沉积环境分析

广西田林地区发育有早石炭世全球罕见的后生动物格架礁,该珊瑚礁的主体部分由双型珊瑚(Diphyphyllum)、丛管珊瑚(Siphonodendron)、石柱珊瑚(Lithostrotion)以及笛管珊瑚(Syringopora)等建造而成。这些造架珊瑚个体一般以无性出芽繁殖生长和躲避障碍物弯曲生长的竞争模式占据更多的空间生态位,而群体之间则以越顶生长的策略取得竞争的胜利。礁体连续发育,无明显的间断性和旋回性,但造礁生物的组合在礁体纵向分布上存在一定差异,可识别出3个连续的生物组合单元,即Diphyphyllum组合、Siphonodendron-Lithostrotion组合和Diphyphyllum-Syringopora组合。对礁剖面岩石的微相特征研究,划分出了含少量生物碎屑粒泥灰岩、钙藻粒泥灰岩、生物碎屑泥粒灰岩、灰泥质颗粒灰岩、珊瑚格架岩和有孔虫生物碎屑亮晶颗粒岩等6种微相类型。礁体在发育过程中经历了由深水开阔台地相到浅水开阔台地相,珊瑚礁相到台内斜坡相再到台内浅滩相,标志着海平面逐渐下降、水体变浅、水动能不断增强的沉积环境。     

渤海湾盆地黄河口凹陷BZ34-9区带火山岩三维刻画及火山喷发期次

基于火山岩溢流相的高连续强振幅和火山通道相的低连续弱振幅2种截然相反的地震反射特征, 建立振幅-方差体地震属性分级-拾取-融合技术刻画火山岩时空展布的方法, 有效刻画火山岩的三维时空展布以及火山喷发期次.通过渤海湾盆地黄河口凹陷BZ34-9区带火山岩三维刻画和火山喷发期次研究, 取得以下认识: (1)研究区沙一二段火山岩零星分布, 主要发育在BZ34-9区带中部, 多为中心式喷发; 东营组火山岩广泛发育, 连片分布, 主要发育在BZ34-9区带南部缓坡带, 为中心式、裂隙-中心复合式喷发; (2)沙一二段东部火山先于西部火山喷发, 南部火山先于北部火山喷发; (3)东营组南部火山先于北部火山喷发, 且南部火山喷发期次多于北部, 北部火山多为短暂性喷发; (4)东营组火山较沙一二段活动强烈、喷发次数多、范围广.      

假雄牙鲆消化器官中碱性磷酸酶比活性的研究

碱性磷酸酶(alkaline phosphatases)是一种内源性酶，几乎存在于所有动物的细胞膜(plasma membrane)中，它在许多代谢活动中，如动物的生长、蛋自质的合成、营养成分的转运、类固醇的生成等方面都发挥着重要的作用(Ram et al.，1985)。因此，对于碱性磷酸酶的研究，有利于了解鱼类的消化生理，并有助于更深刻地理解鱼类体内营养成分的吸收和转运机制。假雄牙鲆是在雌性牙鲆的一定生长发育阶段，用人工诱导的方法使之性转化所获得的。对于假雄牙鲆的生理、生化特性的研究，至今还未见正式报道。本实验以一年龄假雄牙鲆为研究对象，研究了不同消化器官中碱性磷酸酶的比活性，并初步探讨了在不同发育时期碱性磷酸酶比活性的变化，从而能够更深刻地理解假雄牙鲆体内营养成分消化与吸收的过程和机制，并有助于牙鮃的人工培育。     

武陵山贫困片区扶贫成效评价与空间格局分析

本文以武陵山贫困片区为研究区,构建扶贫成效评价指标体系,采用层次分析法(AHP)法确定指标权重,并通过综合评价法计算2010-2012年各区县3期扶贫成效综合指数;在扶贫成效评价结果的基础上,采用空间自相关方法进行空间格局分析,探究武陵山区近年来扶贫成效空间格局特征及成因.结果表明:(1) 武陵山片区扶贫成效空间分布基本呈现省内聚集的态势,总体表现为"北部高,中部低"的分布特征;(2) 扶贫成效的空间格局具有明显的地区差异,渝东南地区3期扶贫成效好,且具有稳定的中等增速;铜仁地区虽然经济社会发展基础薄弱且3期扶贫成效不高,但增速最大;鄂西南地区3期扶贫成效及增速均较好;湘西地区3期扶贫成效较差且增速缓慢,因此日后应更关注该地区的扶贫工作开展.