Impact of 4DVAR assimilation of rainfall data on the simulation of mesoscale precipitation systems in a mei-yu heavy rainfall event

The multi-scale weather systems associated with a mei-yu front and the corresponding heavy precipitation during a particular heavy rainfall event that occurred on 4 5 July 2003 in east China were successfully simulated through rainfall assimilation using the PSU/NCAR non-hydrostatic, mesoscale, numerical model （MM5） and its four-dimensional, variational, data assimilation （4DVAR） system. For this case, the improvement of the process via the 4DVAR rainfall assimilation into the simulation of mesoscale precipitation systems is investigated. With the rainfall assimilation, the convection is triggered at the right location and time, and the evolution and spatial distribution of the mesoscale convective systems （MCSs） are also more correctly simulated. Through the interactions between MCSs and the weather systems at different scales, including the low-level jet and mei-yu front, the simulation of the entire mei-yu weather system is significantly improved, both during the data assimilation window and the subsequent 12-h period. The results suggest that the rainfall assimilation first provides positive impact at the convective scale and the influences are then propagated upscale to the meso- and sub-synoptic scales.
Through a set of sensitive experiments designed to evaluate the impact of different initial variables on the simulation of mei-yu heavy rainfall, it was found that the moisture field and meridional wind had the strongest effect during the convection initialization stage, however, after the convection was fully triggered, all of the variables at the initial condition seemed to have comparable importance.     

山东省主体功能区划分研究

根据山东省区域发展情况,参照"十一五"规划《纲要》提出的主体功能区划分基本思路,尝试建立由资源环境承载力、开发密度和发展潜力等因素构成的指标体系,并以山东省17个地市为基本空间单元,运用状态空间法划定山东省主体功能区。结果表明:除依法设立的各类自然保护区散布在各地市外,重点开发区和优化开发区主要分布在中东部地区,限制开发区集中在西部地区。该研究以期为山东省制定差别化区域政策、统筹区域可持续发展提供战略指导,并为我国主体功能区划分提供理论参考。     

基于现场观测的辽东湾东岸海冰环境基本特征

全面获取气-冰-海环境特征数据已成为当前冬季现场观测的重要任务,用于准确、快速开展区域冰情评价预测,以满足海冰防灾减灾工作需求。基于辽东湾东岸鲅鱼圈雷达海冰观测站（15a）与温坨子附近海域（9a）的冬季观测数据,对辽东湾东岸的风、水温、海冰时空分布等环境基本特征进行了探讨。对鲅鱼圈站1月和2月4级风（5.5m·s-1）以上数据进行分析,发现偏北风自2016年以来呈现由N、NNE、NE向NE转变,偏南风自2016年以来主风向由SSW向WSW转变。对温坨子海冰观测站水温观测数据进行分析,发现水温表现出降温期、平稳期与回温期,降温期发生于12月至次年1月中旬,平稳期发生于1月下旬至2月中旬,回温期发生于2月下旬;当气温低于-10℃时,水温基本维持在-1.4℃附近,气温处于-10～-5℃时,水温基本分布于-1.4～-0.5℃区间,气温处于-5～5℃时,观测点水温基本分布于-1.4～3℃。对鲅鱼圈站与温坨子站能见范围内的逐日海冰分布面积比例进行分析,发现海冰面积呈现增大期、稳定期与减少期,鲅鱼圈站附近12月12日至次年1月9日前后为增大期（对应初冰期）,1月9日前后至2月8日前后为稳定期（对应盛...     

湖北地区历史有感地震震级测定方法的探讨

1.引言中国地震记载虽有数千年的历史,但无烈度和震级量度,仅有文字的直观叙述,如何根据历史记录资料来确定震级,以便进而研究地震分布及其活动规律,这是十分必要的基础工作。     

The Mathematic Models of the Kalman Filtering for Across-Fault Measurement

This paper makes a probe into the application of the Kalman filtering method to the data processing of across-fault measurements.On the basis of statistical regression,the mathematic and stochastic models of filtration are established by combining the regression method with Kalman filtering.In the filtering computation,not only the randomness of fault movements but also the time-dependent variation of environmental effects have been taken into consideration.By use of the adaptive filtering method,an estimation of the dynamic noise variance matrix is obtained through iteration.Models for one measuring line(leveling line or baseline),two measuring lines(both leveling lines or both baselines)and four measuring lines(two leveling lines and two baselines)are derived and established systematically.By means of these models,the data of across-fault measurements can be processed dynamically in real-time to provide the filtered values of height difference between benchmarks or baseline length at different time in     

甘肃武都龙家沟盆地地层时代及发育特征

根据化石组合，龙家沟盆地的地层可划分为中侏罗统龙家沟组，上白垩统及上中新统保德组。龙家沟组是盆地的主体沉积，含有多层煤层及油页岩。保德组中发现有我国著名的“龙家沟三趾马动物群”．是保德期庙梁亚期的主要代表动物群之一。     

西安市投资环境优化对策的定量研究

选取系列指标体系，运用层次分析法，采用单排序和总排序，分析比较影响西安市的投资环境的因素系列，确定其权重重要性程度，据此提出优对策。     

广州市未来居住区热点区位分析

本文在回顾建国以来广州市居住区建设状况的基础上，对广州市居民３个层次的居住环境现状进行了评价，分析了居民未来居住环境需求的变化对其住宅区位选择的影响，讨论广州市目前已经出现及将会出现的重要的城市社会发展趋势和城市建设趋势，以及它们对城市居住区区位的影响，指出了广州市未来居住区开发的热点区位及其开发过程中所要重点解决的几个问题。     

弱频散条件下大气运动的非线性演变过程

研究非线性过程对大气运动影响的一个常用方法是在一定条件下,将大气运动力学方程化为一些熟知的典型非线性演变方程,再利用数学中已有的结果进行讨论。Long、Redekopp等从地转涡度方程出发,证明了迭加在带状切变气流中的长的Rossby波的演变可以用著名的Kdv方程来描述。此     

旱直播水稻的农业气象条件研究

通过１９９０年，１９９１年连续两年的分期播种试验，分析了旱直播水稻的光温特性及其与空秕率的关系，并根据当地气候特点，提出旱直播水稻的最佳及安全播种期和抽穗期。