晋冀蒙交界区瑞利波速随时间变化特征

以冀晋蒙交界区为研究中心,利用2010年1月-2013年5月冀晋蒙交汇区部分数字地震观测台网资料,通过波形互相关,获取研究区内台站对之间瑞利波速度随时间的变化特征.结果表明,背景噪声互相关方法获取的相对地震波速度变化可用于监测地壳内部物性介质的变化,但在一定程度上受到季节变化影响.研究区瑞利波速度2011-2012年波动较大,可能是该时段环太平洋区强/大地震活动引起华北区应力场调整变化的反映,2013年后瑞利波速度变化基本在零值附近波动,表明研究区地下介质物性变化处于相对稳定阶段.     

带有周期分量的多元逐步回归在橡胶寒害趋势分析中的应用

本文采用带有周期分量的多元逐步回归方法建立了海口、白沙等五个站的极端最低气温预报模式,用其来分析橡胶寒害趋势。此方法既考虑了预报因子对预报量的影响,又考虑了预报量本身的周期变化及预报因子的相关阶段性。模式的拟合及预报效果都比较好。      

首都圈地区MS≥5.0地震时空演化分析

本文对1880年以来首都圈5级以上地震的时空特征进行分析,认为首都圈地区5级以上地震活动存在10年左右的周期性,地震发生有自西向东迁移的特征且这一迁移具有轮回性。目前,首都圈地区处于发震的时间节点上,根据迁移性和轮回性认为未来首都圈东部地区发生5级以上地震的可能性较大。     

大气激光雷达气溶胶光学参数质量可信度评估算法

气溶胶激光雷达由于系统设计、观测场地气候条件、反演过程中参数选取等因素不同,每次测量反演得到的气溶胶光学参数质量不一致,可信度难以评估,进而极大地影响了其在气象、环保等领域业务化应用。为了解决该难题,本文分析了影响激光雷达气溶胶光学参数质量的因素,开发了一套气溶胶光学参数质量可信度评估算法。采用科学、合理的评分和权重分配方案对激光雷达每次测量反演得到的气溶胶光学参数质量可信度进行评估。本文主要讨论对偏振、米散射激光雷达气溶胶光学参数的质量评估,以中国气象局气象探测中心的波长为532 nm的偏振、米散射激光雷达为例,对所提出的质量可信度评估算法进行验证和分析。结果表明:该算法能够有效地区分出不同激光雷达在不同观测场景下每次测量反演得到的气溶胶光学参数质量可信度,具备为气溶胶激光雷达业务化应用提供可靠性评估的能力。     

Physical processes causing the formation of hypoxia off the Changjiang estuary after Typhoon Chan-hom, 2015

Severe hypoxia was observed in the submarine canyon to the east of the Changjiang estuary in July 14, 2015, two days after typhoon Chan-hom. The oxygen concentration reached as low as 2.0 mg/L and occupied a water column of about 25 m. A ROMS model was configured to explore the underlying physical processes causing the formation of hypoxia. Chan-hom passed through the Changjiang estuary during the neap tide. The stratification was completely destroyed in the shallow nearshore region when typhoon passing. However, it was maintained in the deep canyon, though the surface mixed layer was largely deepened. The residual water in the deep canyon is considered to be the possible source of the later hypoxia. After Chan-hom departure, not only the low salinity plume water spread further off shore, but also the sea surface temperature (SST) rewarmed quickly. Both changes helped strengthen the stratification and facilitate the formation of hypoxia. It was found that the surface heat flux, especially the solar short wave radiation dominated the surface re-warming, the off shore advection of the warmer Changjiang Diluted Water (CDW) also played a role. In addition to the residual water in the deep canyon, the Taiwan Warm Current (TWC) was found to flow into the deep canyon pre- and soon post- Chan-hom, which was considered to be the original source of the hypoxia water.

     

一种测震仪器数据实时接入中间件设计与实现

分析了几种地震数据采集器的网络协议和数据格式,开发了一套独立的仪器数据访问中间件,为实现上位机应用程序与多种仪器的网络通信、各种数据流的统一接收、处理、发布和共享提供了方法和工具。将中间件应用于测震台站数据监控系统中,为运维人员对台站运行质量的跟踪和数据应用提供了方法和工具,为面向仪器的软件工程实施提供了典型示范。     

Progress in plant phenology modeling under global climate change

Plant phenology is the study of the timing of recurrent biological events and the causes of their timing with regard to biotic and abiotic forces. Plant phenology affects the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems and determines vegetation feedback to the climate system by altering the carbon, water and energy fluxes between the vegetation and near-surface atmosphere. Therefore, an accurate simulation of plant phenology is essential to improve our understanding of the response of ecosystems to climate change and the carbon, water and energy balance of terrestrial ecosystems. Phenological studies have developed rapidly under global change conditions, while the research of phenology modeling is largely lagged. Inaccurate phenology modeling has become the primary limiting factor for the accurate simulation of terrestrial carbon and water cycles.Understanding the mechanism of phenological response to climate change and building process-based plant phenology models are thus important frontier issues. In this review, we first summarized the drivers of plant phenology and overviewed the development of plant phenology models. Finally, we addressed the challenges in the development of plant phenology models and highlighted that coupling machine learning and Bayesian calibration into process-based models could be a potential approach to improve the accuracy of phenology simulation and prediction under future global change conditions.     

近30年东平湖湿地景观格局演变研究

随着区域经济的迅速发展,工业化程度加剧以及旅游开发等人为活动的影响,东平湖湖区景观格局发生了显著变化,威胁着湿地资源的可持续利用。该文在遥感和GIS技术的支持下,以东平湖1985年、1991年、1996年、2000年、2004年、2011年、2015年7期Landsat TM/OLI影像为数据源,对东平湖湿地景观类型进行了提取。同时利用Fragstats景观分析软件,选取景观多样性、景观优势度、景观均匀度、景观破碎度等指标,在景观水平上研究了1985—2015年近30年来东平湖湿地景观格局的动态变化特征。结果表明,近30年来,湿地与湿地、湿地与非湿地之间发生着景观类型的转化。其中,裸地面积显著减少,建筑用地面积显著增加,自然水面逐渐增大,各植被景观面积没有明显变化趋势。景观格局指数的计算结果表明,研究时段内东平湖湿地景观均匀度指数波动增加,景观多样性指数趋于减小,东平湖湿地景观破碎化程度较均衡,但有加剧趋势,景观类型波动中趋于简单。     

西沙群岛西科1井三亚组一段致密白云岩围岩矿物及稀土元素特征

西沙群岛西科1井致密白云岩具有低孔低渗特征,前人证实其是由填隙物与围岩2个相互独立的岩石矿物学端元组成,同时西沙群岛远离陆架,其内碳酸盐岩中的地球化学指标尤其稀土元素可以很好地指示古海洋和沉积环境。作者以致密白云岩围岩为研究对象,通过显微观察、SEM-EDS(场发射扫描电子显微镜-X射线能谱仪)、激光原位剥蚀技术分析其矿物及稀土元素特征。结果表明围岩中白云石以细晶白云石为主,包括自形、半自形及他形,孔隙细小,发育典型雾心亮边构造。稀土配分表现为LREE亏损、La正异常、Ce负异常、高Y/Ho值等典型海相碳酸盐岩稀土元素特征。此外Eu具有正异常,认为与来自海底的热液活动有关。     

CO2浓度倍增对中国主要作物影响的试验研究

根据自行设计的ＯＴＣ－１型开顶式气室及连续３年试验资料，在评述该套设备性能的基础上，分析了ＣＯ２浓度倍增对４种作物生长发育和产量的影响。结果表明：ＣＯ２浓度倍增，作物发育进程加快，株高增加，经济产量和生物产量增长明显，且Ｃ３作物的增长幅度大于Ｃ４作物；冬小麦、棉花品质呈良性变化，玉米品质可能有所下降，大豆品质变化不明显。上述初步结果尚待进一步研究