印度生物医药产业政策分析及启示

生物医药产业、信息软件产业和钢铁产业一起位列印度经济领域的支柱产业,印度在全球仿制药市场享有“世界药房”声誉,生物医药产业的发展高度依赖政府产业政策的制定。分析中印两国生物医药产业发展现状,从产业结构政策、产业组织政策、产业布局政策和产业技术政策4个方面对比中印的产业政策,发现印度生物医药产业的发展要优于与其国情和产业发展基础相似的中国。通过分析印度生物医药产业政策对该国产业发展的促进效应,以及结合中国生物医药产业发展的现存问题,得出对中国生物医药产业发展的政策建议,建议包括：中国应重视对大型企业的培养,鼓励企业积极参与国际合作,做好产业集群内的信息交流和基础设施服务,采取重点突破的原则对生物医药研发进行支持,提高中国医药专利的申请标准,提升专利质量。     

石羊河流域农户对气候变化的感知及其影响因素

农户对气候变化的感知是影响其选择有效适应策略的关键因素。基于农户调查数据,构建了农户对气候变化的感知度指数,分析了石羊河流域农户对气候变化的感知特征,并采用多元线性回归法分析了影响农户气候变化感知的关键因素。结果表明：（1）石羊河流域农户对气温的感知比较准确,但对降水的感知出现偏差,农户对干旱、沙尘暴的感知强度明显高于其他气象灾害;（2）农户对气候变化的严重性感知较强,大部分农户认为气候变化对其生计产生了严重影响;（3）农户感知到的气候变化适应功效及适应成本均较高,但感知到的自我效能较弱;（4）影响气候变化敏感性感知的关键因素为户主受教育水平、务农年限、气候变化信息获取渠道;影响气候变化严重性感知与适应成本感知的关键因素均为户主性别、受教育水平及与村民的交流频率;影响适应功效感知的关键因素为与村民的交流频率;影响自我效能感知的关键因素为户主受教育水平。     

新型城镇化水平区域差异与驱动因素分析

基于新型城镇化内涵的深刻理解及城镇化发展历程的梳理,尝试性利用等权重方法,对2000~2015年中国31个省市新型城镇化发展水平进行测度和时空维度及集聚特征展示。在此基础上建立多元回归模型,对中国进行分区域新型城镇化发展驱动力进行分析。结果表明,中国东、中、西部新型城镇化发展主导驱动因素分别为外向力、市场力和行政力。政府应在充分认识新型城镇化内涵基础上,对东、中、西部实行不同发展策略,缩小区域差异。     

中天山卡瓦布拉克地区中-基性岩脉的年代学及岩石成因

中天山卡瓦布拉克地区侵入岩类广泛发育,并多处被中-基性岩脉穿插。LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb测年获得闪长岩和辉长岩脉年龄分别为296.1±2.5 Ma （MSWD = 1.4）,299.5±2 Ma （MSWD = 1.07）,均侵位于早二叠世。岩石学和岩石地球化学分析结果表明该区中-基性岩脉具有富集轻稀土元素（LREE）和大离子亲石元素（Rb,U,Th）、亏损高场强元素（Nb,Ta,Ti）的地球化学特征,SREE为69.19～234.62,LREE/HREE = 3.97～11.18。闪长岩脉锆石（176Hf/177Hf）值为0.280 618～0.283 329,对应的εHf(t) 值为-14.57～+25.06。研究数据表明,该区中-基性岩脉可能起源于亏损岩石圈地幔,原始岩浆在侵位过程中发生了分离结晶作用,同时还受到了地壳混染作用的影响。基于卡瓦布拉克地区中-基性岩脉的野外地质特征和地球化学分析结果,并结合区域地质资料,认为它们形成于南天山洋闭合之后的后碰撞伸展构造背景。     

海原断裂带断层泥摩擦特性的研究

用双剪法对海原断裂带5个点的13种断层泥的摩擦滑动特征进行的实验研究表明,海原断裂带的断层泥的存在有助于消除粘滑与增大摩擦强度,五个点断层泥的摩擦系数平均值分别是0.760(景泰),0.728(哈思山),0.669(大沟门),0.644(剌儿沟),0.684(蔡祥堡)。     

中国东北农业生产适应气候变化的行为经济学解释

利用调查问卷和入户访谈的方法,以中国东北地区11个调查点为研究区.对554户农户进行调查研究.从行为经济学的视角出发,把农业实践者的粮食种植行为作为一种农业经济行为,分析20世纪80年代气候变暖以来,农业实践者在农业种植决策中的行为过程及其与传统经济学理性行为之间的差异.结果显示,在不确定条件下,农业决策行为符合行为经济学的一般规律,在认知偏差和思维定式等因素的影响下,会系统地偏离传统经济学理论,产生非理性行为,从而导致适应与变化之间存在时滞现象:①受启发式认知偏向的影响,农业实践者在作物种类选择、种植计划制定和粮食出售时间确定等方面均表现为非理性的特点:②受中国具体国情和农业生产固有特点的影响,出于"保障生活能够继续"的考虑,农业实践者判断"获得"和"损失"的参照点通常很低,对作物品种选择的行为更倾向于保守.     

A modified method to estimate eddy diffusivity in the North Pacific using altimeter eddy statistics

The method proposed by Stammer (1998) is modified using eddy statistics from altimeter observation to obtain more realistic eddy diffusivity (K) for the North Pacific. Compared with original estimates, the modified K has remarkably reduced values in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) and North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) regions, but slightly enhanced values in the Subtropical Counter Current (STCC) region. In strong eastward flow areas like the KE and NECC, owing to a large difference between mean flow velocity and propagation velocity of mesoscale eddies, tracers inside the mesoscale eddies are transported outside rapidly by advection, and mixing length L is hence strongly suppressed. The low eddy probability (P) is also responsible for the reduced K in the NECC area. In the STCC region, however, L is mildly suppressed and P is very high, so K there is enhanced. The zonally-averaged K has two peaks with comparable magnitudes, in the latitude bands of the STCC and KE. In the core of KE, because of the reduced values of P and L, the zonally-averaged K is a minimum. Zonally-integrated eddy heat transport in the KE band, calculated based on the modified K, is much closer to the results of previous independent research, indicating the robustness of our modified K. The map of modified K provides useful informationfor modeling studies in the North Pacific.     

中国粮食安全脆弱区的识别及空间分异

In view of food affordability and the threshold for food security, this paper has established an integrated index for assessing the vulnerability of food security in China, which is composed mainly of the balance between food supply and demand, the reserve for food security and the economic capacity for offset food demand. Six types of food security regions are identified based on the data from county-level statistics. At regional scale, China’s food security is not optimistic. Under normal conditions without the emergence of extreme disasters and decline of grain-sown areas, China’s most vulnerable areas (Type VI) account for 30.3% of the total number of counties (cities), which are unable to meet the ends by food productivity or market based measures at subsistence levels. In China, there are only 14.5% of the counties (cities) that could guarantee well-off food security through grain production (Type I) or economic measures to meet the demand by themselves (Type III). According to the different vulnerable levels of food security and its dominant forming factors, vulnerable regions of food security in China could be classified into three categories: (1) Vulnerable regions of food security dominated by natural factors (including Type IV and Type VIa), which account for 39.4% of the total number of counties (cities), mainly located in fragile ecologic zones, i.e., farming-grazing transitional zones in the marginal areas of summer monsoon, the poor hilly areas in southern China and so on; (2) Vulnerable regions of food security dominated by low ratio of grain-sown areas (including Type VIb and Type V), which account for 16.7% of the total number of counties (cities), mostly located in the developed areas in the eastern coast of China; (3) Potential vulnerable regions of food security with underdeveloped local economies (Type II), of which 57% are the main grain-surplus regions in China, mainly located in the areas of plains and basins with favorable climate.     

新疆艾里克湖炭屑记录的中亚干旱区MIS 3中期以来的古火灾演化

大规模火灾能够对当地植被和生产经济造成不可逆的损害, 严重影响着人们的生产生活。中亚干旱区生态系统脆弱, 火灾频发, 使得该地区成为研究古火灾的理想地区之一。MIS 3时期是距离现今最近的间冰阶, 气候上与现在有许多相似之处, 是进行古气候研究的重要时段。通过对长时间尺度上的火灾演化及其影响因素的了解, 即有助于我们理解火灾对植被和气候变化的响应机制, 又能够为现代预测和治理火灾提供一定的科学依据。本研究以新疆艾里克湖Ailike-2019孔(岩芯长4.49 m)沉积岩芯为研究对象, 通过AMS ¹⁴C测年、花粉通量和炭屑分析, 重建艾里克湖约40 ka以来的古火灾演化序列。结果表明, MIS 3中、晚期(40.2~26.7 cal.ka B.P.), 植被覆盖度较差, 火灾较少; MIS 2时期(26.7~11.7 cal.ka B.P.), 植被覆盖度差, 火灾少; 全新世(11.7 cal.ka B.P. 至今), 植被覆盖度显著上升, 火灾频发。研究区自MIS 3中期以来的火灾活动与植被覆盖度的变化具有相似的趋势, 说明火灾的发生可能与植被覆盖度的变化有关。这与中亚干旱区的其他炭屑记录相似, 表明中亚干旱区轨道尺度上的火灾可能主要受可燃生物量控制。暖湿/冷干的气候条件导致植被覆盖度扩张/缩小, 从而提供了更多/更少的可燃生物量, 使得火灾能够产生大量/少量炭屑。

     

石家庄地区干热风年型指标分析及统计预测模型

本文提出的干热风综合指数(DHW)能反映某时期内干热风日数累积影响和干热风强度的瞬时影响,还可用来划分重、轻、无干热风年型指标。并采用岭回归方法组建DHW预测模式,其试报结果较好,克服了文献[1]的某些不足。