CMIP3与CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区气温和降水的模拟能力比较

通过对15组CMIP3和CMIP5两代模式集合平均对中国西北干旱区气温和降水的模拟能力比较,发现CMIP5模式对气温和降水的模拟更接近观测值。CMIP5模式模拟年、春季、夏季、秋季平均气温的相关系数比CMIP3模式分别提升了0.15、0.13、0.24和0.02,冬季下降了0.07。CMIP5模式对西北干旱区的平均气温变化趋势的模拟效果比CMIP3有所提高,对年、春季、夏季、秋季、冬季趋势的模拟偏差比CMIP3分别减少了0.03℃/10a、0.10℃/10a、0.01℃/10a、0.06℃/10a、0.14℃/10a。对西北干旱区平均气温年、季的模拟偏差分布上,CMIP5模式的偏差均比CMIP3低1~2℃。但是天山区年、季节平均气温的模拟与整体模拟偏低情况相反,CMIP3和CMIP5分别偏高3~6℃和1~4℃,对夏季的模拟偏高最严重,分别达到6℃和4℃。CMIP5模式整体对西北干旱区降水量的模拟结果与观测值的平均相关系数与CMIP3相差不大,均不超过0.1,而且偏差仍然较大。CMIP5模式对西北干旱区的降水量的变化趋势模拟效果比CMIP3有所降低,对年、春季、夏季、秋季、冬季趋势的模拟偏差比CMIP3增加了0.67 mm/10a、0.23 mm/10a、0.51 mm/10a、0.11 mm/10a、0.14 mm/10a。CMIP5模式对年、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的降水量模拟的均方根误差相比CMIP3分别减少77.6 mm、25.5 mm、25.0 mm、18.8 mm和13.9 mm。在空间上,CMIP5模式对年、季节降水模拟仍然偏高,但是比CMIP3有明显缓解;CMIP3和CMIP5模式对夏季天山区年降水量和夏季降水量的模拟也与大部分区域偏高的趋势明显相反,两代模式对夏季天山区的降水模拟均偏低50 mm左右。     

地球轨道根数变化与第四纪冰期

介绍了米兰柯维奇（Milankovitch)天文气候学理论和第四纪地质时期以来冰期的研究进展。研究结果表明，地球上的冰体积具有近10万yr的变化周期，并伴有近4万yr和2万yr的变化周期，它们是由于地球的轨道根数变化导致的气候变迁所致；不同的地球物理资料中均存在上述类似的变化周期，表明气候变迁所导致的变化是全球性效应，证实米兰柯维奇天文理论是基本正确的；对天文气候学理论作了简要介绍，指出了米兰柯维奇天文气候学理论的可能不足，对引起最近百万yr以来的近10万yr气候变化周期的可能天文机制也作了介绍。     

Comparative assessment of semantic-sensitive satellite image retrieval: simple and context-sensitive Bayesian networks

In recent years, Bayesian networks using unsupervised extracted image features have been applied in many remote sensing information mining systems to enable semantic-sensitive image retrieval. However, a simple Bayesian network insufficiently accounts for the spatial information, that is, the relations among image regions, for the semantic inference process. This drawback significantly impacts the retrieval performance, especially if the utilised features contain no or little spatial information. Therefore, this article proposes a context-sensitive Bayesian network, which infers semantic concepts of image regions based on the spectral and textural characteristics of the regions themselves as well as their contexts, that is, the adjacent regions. In order to compare the context-sensitive Bayesian network with the simple Bayesian network, comprehensive experiments were conducted based on high-resolution multispectral IKONOS imagery. The results show that the incorporation of the image regions' spatial relations not only significantly improves the accuracy of the semantic concepts inference, but also allows more flexibility in choosing the type of low-level features.     

银额盆地额济纳旗伊很乌苏地区下白垩统巴音戈壁组的微体化石及沉积环境

银额盆地额济纳地区中生代地层分布广泛,近些年的研究表明,盆地内发现的油气多来源于中生代地层的烃源岩,因此研究银额盆地中生代地层具有十分重要的意义。通过对银额盆地额济纳地区微体化石进行分析研究,发现鉴定了孢粉3属3种,介形类3属6种,其共存时限为早白垩世。据此将前人原划上侏罗统重新厘定为下白垩统巴音戈壁组,并根据岩石组合特征将其划分为3个岩性段。结合化石古生态、沉积构造和区域地质背景,认为巴音戈壁组3个岩性段分别代表了近岸水下扇、滨—浅湖、扇三角洲平原的淡水—微咸水内陆河湖相沉积环境,揭示其沉积经历了湖盆从产生、发展到萎缩的演化过程。巴音戈壁组岩石组合、沉积环境和化石组合特征的研究结果,有助于区域地层研究对比,为研究油气基础地质和区域演化提供基础资料。     

Defining the range of ecological shelter zones in the shore zone of Three Gorges Reservoir,China

To maintaining a health ecological environment in Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) area, ecological shelter zones (ESZ) need to be built in the TGR shore zone urgently. Based on the implication and function of ESZ, this study first analyzed the relationships amongst three subsystems of the TGR area, including the upstream production-living land, the downstream reservoir water body, and the ESZ. Then a simple and practical hydrological environment model for controlling the eutrophication of the TGR water body was constructed to determine ESZ range of TGR. Additionally, based on the pollutant degradation efficiency of ESZ and the assimilative capacity of reservoir water body, a raster reverse tracking method was proposed to determine the range of ESZ. Thirdly, take Yangdu town in Zhongxian county as a typical region, the ESZ range under three scenarios of different rainfall intensity, degradation efficiency and inflow water quality that corresponding to the three decisive factors of defining ESZ range were discussed. Finally, the statistical laws of the ESZ’s width at each boundary points were discussed to facilitate the ESZ construction projects, and selected standardized rate at 70, 90, and 99 % were labelled as “General”, “Good” and “Excellent” level to represent the performance of the width of the ESZ range. In conclusion, it suggest “Good” level width as basic width of ESZ, and additionally a special protection zone should be put on upstream environment for the extreme large width at the boundary points.     

全国自动地震速报系统综合评估

通过对2011年1月1日至12月31日的3套独立自动地震定位系统结果进行综合处理,得出中国自动地震综合目录,并与正式速报结果进行对比,得出全国自动地震速报系统综合评估结果,发现该目录对于国内绝大部分5级以上、国外7级以上地震实现整体覆盖,且没有误报发生,可以作为国家台网中心正式地震速报的重要参考,对于建立“自动报～正式报”的两级地震速报制度可提供技术支撑。     

节理岩体断裂的分形机理研究

本文在考察了节理化岩体的断裂力学特征的基础上，结合现代分形几何原理，建立起追踪裂纹裂分形模型，对不连续岩体的断裂韧性的分形效应进行了深入研究，并通过压剪试验得到难。     

三门峡市冰雹出现规律与防雹工作探讨

利用1971-2005年三门峡市冰雹天气过程资料,分析了冰雹时空分布特征、主要影响系统、本站要素指标及雷达回波特征等,结果表明:渑池县降雹次数最多,灵宝次之,卢氏最少;降雹集中在4-8月,13-19时降雹几率最高.三门峡降雹的天气形势主要有蒙古-华北冷槽、冷涡型和西北气流型.受上述天气系统影响时,500 hPa有冷平流,若地面连续2～3天增温增湿,有可能出现冰雹天气.此外,雹云雷达回波强度＞50 dBz,云顶高度＞10 km,云顶温度＜-40℃,垂直积分液态含水量有明显的跃升.是降雹的前兆.     

南京西安北平三处云之高度

(一)测量云高之方法: 测量云之高度,必须於申乙两处,同时以经纬仪量云所在之方位,及其仰角。甲乙两处相距约须有千五百公尺之遥;两处并须有电话相通,俾观测者得约定时间及指定欲测之云块。两处同时测定之後,则云之高度即可求得。此法发明甚早,十七世纪意大利教士 Ricciol     

天津滨海地区浅层剪切波速与基底构造关系研究

Shear wave velocity is one of the important dynamic characteristics of soil layers and applied widely in aseismic engineering. In this paper, 500 drill logging data are used to make a linear interpolation based on 0.01°×0.01°×1m grid. A shallow 3-D shear wave velocity structure of Tianjin coastal area is obtained. According to the data and geological background, we selected two typical velocity profiles to try to introduce and explain its relationship to basement structure. The results show that the shear wave velocity structure clearly presents the characteristic of stratification and lateral inhomogeneity. Furthermore, the difference of the shear wave structure between tectonic elements is clear and the velocity structure between the two sides of the local or border fault in the Quaternary is disturbed or affected significantly. It intuitively shows that the basement structure and fault activity of this region had good control of sedimentation development and strata formation in the Quaternary period which would have an important effect on engineering seismic and geological condition evaluation.