贵州省地质灾害气象预警预报

贵州复杂和脆弱的地质环境使地质灾害频发,危害民生,影响国民经济的健康发展,引起社会的重视。选用适合的地质灾害气象预警预报方法,是主动防灾减灾的手段之一。几年来的预警预报工作证明,效果总体较好。对其重要性、影响、作用、改进的意义做了解读。     

Extreme precipitation events identified using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) in Anhui,China

Extreme weather events include unusual, severe or unseasonal weather, and weather at the extremes of the historical distribution. They have become more frequent and intense under global warming, especially in mid-latitude areas. They bring about great agricultural and economic losses. It is important to define the threshold of extreme weather event because it is the starting point of extreme weather event research, though it has been of seldom concern. Taking extreme precipitation events in Anhui, China as an example, the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method is introduced to define the threshold of extreme weather events. Based on it, the spatial and temporal distributions of extreme precipitation events are analyzed. Compared to the traditional percentile method, DFA is based on the long-term correlation of time series. Thresholds calculated by DFA are much higher than the 99th percentile and the values are higher in the south and lower in the north. This spatial pattern is similar to the annual precipitation spatial pattern. There is an obvious increasing trend in the number of days with extreme precipitation, especially after the 1980s. This observation supports the point that more extreme events happen under global warming.     

A Large-Eddy Simulation and Lagrangian Stochastic Study of Heavy Particle Dispersion in the Convective Boundary Layer

Large-eddy simulation and Lagrangian stochastic dispersion models were used to study heavy particle dispersion in the convective boundary layer (CBL). The effects of various geostrophic winds, particle diameters, and subgrid-scale (SGS) turbulence were investigated. Results showed an obvious depression in the vertical dispersion of heavy particles in the CBL and major vertical stratification in the distribution of particle concentrations, relative to the passive dispersion. Stronger geostrophic winds tended to increase the dispersion of heavy particles in the lower CBL. The SGS turbulence, particularly near the surface, markedly influenced the dispersion of heavy particles in the CBL. For reference, simulations using passive particles were also conducted; these simulation results agreed well with results from previous convective tank experiments and numerical simulations.     

乌鲁木齐市降水对大气污染的影响

根据2002—2003年乌鲁木齐市SO2、NO2、PM10的日平均浓度和日降水量分析了乌鲁木齐市降水对3种大气污染物的湿清除能力。分析表明大雨对SO2和PM10的湿清除能力大于小雨,而小雨大于中雨。中雪对SO2和PM10的湿清除能力大于大雪,而大雪大于小雪。小量以上降水(降雨和降雪)对NO2的湿清除能力基本相当。微雨对3种大气污染物具有湿清除能力,而微雪使3种大气污染物的浓度增加。     

基于RAMS/CFORS Ⅱ模式一次低空核试验放射性烟云扩散的数值模拟

采用RAMS／CFORS Ⅱ模式模拟了一次低空核试验烟云的传输和沉降过程。CFORS Ⅱ模式是在RAMS／CFORS模式的基础上开发的,可用于对核试验放射性烟云长距离输送和沉降过程的模拟研究。模拟表明：对流层中低层的低压槽系统对本次低空核试验烟云的水平传输和垂直扩散起着重要的影响作用;烟云的长距离传输速度呈现出随高度递减而减小的趋势,在6000m以上,烟云在爆后48h即东移入海,6000m以下,烟云在中国大陆的扩散和沉降维持了5d以上;爆后2天内以大粒子沉降为主,其后以小粒子沉降为主,小粒子的放射性远小于大粒子,在爆后第4天,放射性沉降就减小了3个量级,而小粒子的沉降范围是大粒子的5倍以上。通过模拟和观测对比表明,模拟结果基本符合实际烟云的传输和沉降态势。     

中心城区地表温度空间分布及地物降温效应——以南京市为例

基于TM图像,采用灰度图像分割算法,自动提取南京市中心城区的不透水面、植被及水体;并用单窗算法反演了地表温度;依据离市中心的距离将中心城区分为45级缓冲区,依次统计分析每一级缓冲区内的平均温度、不透水面温度、植被温度、水体温度及各类地物的面积比例等;建立了地表温度与不透水面比例、植被比例、水体比例之间的关系模型.研究结果表明:随离市中心距离的增大,地表温度降低;植被、水体具有降温效应,水体的降温效应是植被的2.43倍;地表温度与不透水面比例、植被比例、水体比例的综合关系模型模拟效果较好.     

小白洋淀水-沉积物系统多环芳烃的分布、来源与生态风险

以端村小白洋淀为研究对象,利用GC-MS测定了6个样点水、悬浮物和沉积物中15种优控多环芳烃(PAHs)的含量,分析了其组成与来源特征,探讨了不同多环芳烃单体的生态风险,结果表明:(1)15种优控多环芳烃的总含量(PAH15),水相为40.1-74.0ng/L,算术均值51.0ng/L;悬浮物为2438.0-5927.0ng/g,算术均值4528ng/g;沉积物为466.9-1366.4ng/g,算术均值为755.6ng/g;与国内外有关研究相比,污染较轻,(2)三相中均以2、3环PAHs为主,其比例均高于80%;并且,从水相、悬浮物相到沉积物相,2环PAHs依次降低,3环、4环依次升高,高环检出率和含量也依次升高,(3)沉积物中多环芳烃的来源以生物质燃料(秸秆、薪材)和煤的燃烧为主,以液体化石燃料(汽油、柴油和原油)的燃烧为辅,(4)沉积物中的芴(FLO)、菲(PHE)含量在潜在生态风险效应区间低值(ERL)与中值(ERM)之间,其生态风险几率介于10%-50%之间;其他PAHs单体的含量均低于ERL,其生态风险几率均低于10%.     

近百年来湖泊有机碳与无机碳埋藏响应流域开发的协同变化——以石林喀斯特地区为例

有机碳和无机碳的流域输出是湖泊碳埋藏的重要驱动因子,而喀斯特地区无机碳循环具有反应迅速且对人类活动影响敏感的特点.在流域开发持续增强的背景下,喀斯特地区湖泊有机碳和无机碳的来源、含量与埋藏通量可能会出现同步变化的协同模式.本文以云南省石林喀斯特地区流域土地利用类型不同的两个中型湖泊(长湖、月湖)开展对比分析,通过对沉积物钻孔的土壤侵蚀强度(磁化率)、流域外源输入(C:N比值)、水动力(粒度)、营养盐(总氮、总磷)、藻类生产力(叶绿素色素)等代用指标的分析,结合监测数据和历史资料重建了两个湖泊环境变化的近百年历史,并定量识别了有机碳和无机碳埋藏响应流域开发的变化特征与协同模式.沉积物磁化率和C:N比值结果揭示了流域地表侵蚀和外源输入的阶段性特征,同时总氮和总磷含量记录了长湖和月湖营养水平上升的长期模式.在流域森林覆被较高(33.43%)的长湖中,全岩和有机质C:N比值分别与磁化率信号呈显著正相关(r=0.95和0.89,P<0.001),且与无机碳和有机碳含量呈显著负相关(r=-0.94,P<0.001和r=-0.52,P=0.01),反映了森林植被退化时流域碳输出的减少对沉...     

地磁场与气候变化关系的新探索

对地磁场与气候变化的统计研究早已表明，二者有很好的相关关系。本文的目的是对它们的关系给出一种可能的物理解释。利用近600年的地磁场模型资料和全球平均温度序列分析了两者变化的关系，发现它们有很好的对应，且地磁场变化超前于全球气温变化。从地磁场的变化来看，21世纪初全球变暖的趋势应该减缓。文中对地表浅层热场（地热带、火山和地温场）的分布特征与地球内部软流圈－岩石圈边界上焦耳热场的分布特征进行了对比分析。结果表明，地表浅层热场与地球深层焦耳热的分布有很好的对应关系，这可能暗示地表浅层热场是地球深层焦耳热的反映，地磁场通过焦耳热的不断释旋影响气候变化。     

RESPONSE OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC UPPER OCEAN CURRENT TO WESTERLY WIND BURSTS

The characteristics of the response of equatorial Pacific upper ocean current to westerly wind bursts(WWB)were analyzed in the frequency domain by using wind and ADCP data collected by the Shiyan3 during TOGA-COARE IOP,1992-1993.The preliminary results showed that the response consistedof an eastward surface jet at shallower than 60m depth,a westward counter current centering near100m and a shear layer between them,with the variations of all three being nonlinear and nearlysynchronous.The oceanic responses in the frequency domain were characterized by occurrences of a remotely forced mixed Rossby-gravity wave with period of 8-10 days in the surface jet andcountercurrent at shallower than 110 m depth,and two locally forced waves with periods of 24 daysand 4-5 days limited in shallower than 70m depth.These fluctuations of the responses depended much more on zonal wind than meridional wind.The results also revealed that the oceanic response toWWB resulted from momentum transport and energy propagation assoc