Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

The diurnal and seasonal characteristics of urban heat island variation in Beijing city and surrounding areas and impact factors based on remote sensing satellite data

Based on the land surface temperature (LST), the land cover classification map,vegetation coverage, and surface evapotranspiration derived from EOS-MODIS satellite data, and by the use of GIS spatial analytic technique and multivariate statistical analysis method, the urban heat island (UHI) spatial distribution of the diurnal and seasonal variabilities and its driving forces are studied in Beijing city and surrounding areas in 2001. The relationships among UHI distribution and landcover categories, topographic factor, vegetation greenness, and surface evapotranspiration are analyzed. The results indicate that: (i) The significant UHI occur in Beijing city areas in the four seasons due to high heat capacity and multi-reflection of compression building, as well as with special topographic features of its three sides surrounded by mountains,especially in the summer. The UHI spatial distribution is corresponding with the urban geometry structure profile. The LST difference is approximately 4-6℃ between Beijing city and suburb areas, comparatively is 8- 10℃ between Beijing city area and outer suburb area in northwestern regions. (ii) The UHI distribution and intensity in daytime are different from nighttime in Beijing city area, the nighttime UHI is obvious. However, in the daytime, the significant UHI mainly appears in the summer, the autumn takes second place, and the UHI in the winter and the spring seem not obvious. The surface evapotranspiration in suburb areas is larger than that in urban areas in the summer, and high latent heat exchange is evident, which leads to LST difference between city area and suburb area. (iii) The reflection of surface landcover categories is sensitive to the UHI, the correlation between vegetation greenness and UHI shows obviously negative.The scatterplot shows that there is the negative correlation between NDVI and LST (R2 = 0.6481).The results demonstrate that the vegetation greenness is an important factor for reducing the UHI,and large-scale construction of greenbelts can considerably reduce the UHI effect.     

超低频电磁声源非线性动力学建模与分析

电磁声源输出力大、体积小、易于实现超低频输出,在无人反水雷作战中具有显著优势。其动力学行为受到机械回复力和电磁力的耦合作用影响,当施加电流超过坍塌电流,电磁力将超过机械回复力, 就会发生吸和,造成声源的损坏。为准确描述电磁声源非线性动力学特性,预先评估坍塌电流,建立考虑动态漏磁系数的声源非线性动力学模型。通过三维有限元仿真计算动铁芯运动到不同位置处气隙的漏磁系数, 拟合得到动态漏磁系数。根据等效磁路法建立声源的改进电磁力模型,进而建立电磁声源非线性动力学模型。 通过 Runge-Kutta 算法计算得到阶跃激励下声源振动的位移和速度,绘制相平面图。研究稳定与失稳 2 种情况下的相轨迹的动态变化规律,为电磁声源的设计和控制提供理论支撑。     

基于YOLO算法的海洋中尺度涡三维结构构建

海洋中尺度涡是一种常见的中尺度海洋现象,研究海洋中尺度涡的分布及运动特性对航运、气候、军事等具有重要作用,海洋中尺度涡的识别是海洋学和计算机科学领域的一个热门研究课题。运用深度学习的方法和框架,对中尺度涡的二维识别和三维结构构建展开研究分析。首先,获取全球海洋再分析数据并进行流线可视化,构建涡旋流线数据集;其次,利用YOLO v5s卷积神经网络对涡旋流线数据集进行训练,并对南海区域中尺度涡进行有效检测。实验结果表明,YOLO v5s训练后得到最优模型经过测试,平均检测精度均值达到了86.10%;最后,根据涡旋检测结果,对检测出的同时刻不同深度的涡旋判断是否属于同一涡旋,确定后进行该涡旋的三维结构构建。     

四川盆地东缘寒武系盐下油气勘探领域探讨

地球物理资料显示四川盆地东缘齐岳山附近寒武系高台组膏盐岩层下深部存在逆冲构造,其形成过程以及油气地质意义未见深入研究。笔者等综合四川盆地东部石柱地区线束三维和建南地区二维地震反射资料,并结合钻井资料以及区域地质研究成果,从构造继承性的角度探讨四川盆地震旦系灯影组台缘带类型,并分析了川东地区寒武系盐下油气圈闭特征。研究获得如下认识：①川东齐岳山北段构造变形强烈,普遍发育基底卷入构造,构造样式受青白口纪—南华纪裂谷与转换带构造位置的控制。②依据构造继承关系将盆内灯影组台缘带划分为德阳—安岳地区原生型台缘带、万源—达州地区继承型台缘带以及石柱地区继承—改造型台缘带。③依据青白口纪—南华纪裂谷的分布和后期构造作用影响大小,认为沿齐岳山向南至南川一带存在与石柱地区相似的灯影组继承—改造型台缘带,忠县、南川以西存在灯影组继承型台缘带。④研究区新元古界—下寒武统烃源岩、灯影组—龙王庙组滩相白云岩储层与寒武系膏盐岩层系构成完整的生储盖组合。⑤寒武系盐下基底逆冲可形成成排、成带的构造,与灯影组继承—改造型台缘带、龙王庙组滩相白云岩储层配置,形成断层相关的构造—岩性圈闭带,成为川东地区油气规模聚集有利区。研究认为四川盆地东部石柱地区震旦纪—早寒武世早期继承了青白口纪—南华纪裂谷构造特征,燕山期构造反转,高台组盐下形成基底卷入逆冲构造,具备生储盖等基本石油地质条件,具有重要的油气勘探现实意义。     

论华夏成矿省——贺陈毓川院士九十华诞

笔者等对《中国矿产地质志·华南洋—滨太平洋构造演化与成矿》一书（2020）厘定的战略矿产资源居于重要地位的华夏成矿省作些简要论述：① 该成矿省处于古华南洋成矿域与滨太平洋成矿域强烈复合地带,历经早前寒武世克拉通—华南洋—华南裂谷系—陆表海—大陆的发展演化,又受到多期造山特别是空前强烈的燕山期陆内活化造山,并且是一个世界级钨地球化学块体,构成了优越的成矿基因;② 主要成矿特征：包括华南洋及其陆缘弧盆残体成矿,南华间冰期与冰后期大规模沉积成矿,多期大规模S型岩浆以钨为首的有色、铀、贵金属、非金属成矿,I型岩浆以铜为首的铁、有色、贵金属成矿以及钦杭成矿带超大矿床集群与“深地”找矿之眼等;③ 燕山运动岩浆与成矿“核幔式”时空演化规律以及多体系复合构造格局与陆洋左行扭动与洋壳俯冲为主导并有板内挤压、地壳蠕散相复合的动力学机制。     

晚中更新世以来武威盆地沉积特征——基于WV3 钻孔的释光年代学研究

青藏高原东北缘河西走廊形成了一系列新生代盆地,是研究盆地沉积演化的重要区域。武威盆地位于河西走廊东部,盆地内沉积了较厚的新生代冲洪积地层。为了厘清武威盆地晚中更新世以来的沉积演化历史,笔者等在武威盆地石羊河中上游处钻取了长207 m的WV3 钻孔岩心,获得了上部17 m岩心的 19 个钾长石两步法 pIR200IR290 年龄和 2 个多步法 MET-pIRIR 年龄,结合粒度资料,重建了武威盆地石羊河流域中下游晚中更新世以来的光释光年代学框架和沉积历史。结果表明：两步法 pIR200IR290 和多步法MET-pIRIR年龄在误差范围内一致。220~128 ka时期,沉积速率最小,为 0.35 mm/ka,水动力条件较强,以侵蚀为主;128~108 ka (MIS 5d、MIS 5e) 时期沉积速率为 1.94 mm/ka,沉积物粒径由粗变细,表明此时水动力条件由强变弱;末次冰盛期到全新世早期 (19~9 ka) 沉积速率为2.78 mm/ka,沉积物粒径较细,表明此时水动力条件较弱,沉积速率最大,沉积为主。该地区新构造运动比较活跃,在末次间冰期至末次冰盛期期间存在逆冲活动。该研究对于揭示晚中更新世以来祁连山东北部石羊河流域沉积演化特征具有重要意义。     

Effect of the Initial Vortex Structure on Intensity Change During Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Tropical Cyclones: A Numerical Study

This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone (TC) vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Results show that an initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds experienced a much more drastic intensity change during the ERC than an initially larger TC with stronger outer winds. It is found that an initially larger TC vortex with stronger outer winds favored the development of more active spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall, which slowed down the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall and thus prolonged the duration of the concentric eyewall and slow intensity evolution. In contrast, the initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds corresponded to higher inertial stability in the inner core and weaker inertial stability but stronger filamentation outside the outer eyewall. These led to stronger boundary layer inflow, stronger updraft and convection in the outer eyewall, and suppressed convective activity outside the outer eyewall. These resulted in the rapid weakening during the formation of the outer eyewall, followed by a rapid re-intensification of the TC during the ERC. Our study demonstrates that accurate in- itialization of the TC structure in numerical models is crucial for predicting changes in TC intensity during the ERC. Additionally, monitoring the activity of spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall can help to improve short-term intensity forecasts for TCs experiencing ERCs.     

石英脉型钨多金属矿床的扇状成矿实例及找矿模型

石英脉型钨矿床是中国数量最多的钨矿床类型,但保有储量消耗迅速,迫切需要创新找矿模型,指导找矿突破。文章结合二十余年的找矿实践,通过详细分析扇状成矿矿床实例,构建了石英脉型钨矿床新的找矿模型。该模型强调赋矿裂隙为岩浆动力成因,在花岗岩体顶部呈扇状分布型式,岩浆期后热液恰在裂隙张开时充填其中而形成扇状成矿系统;提出“就岩找矿”、“就矿找矿”、“就矿找岩”的地质、地球化学和地球物理标志,指导矿床尺度的勘查工程部署。截至目前,该模型已在广东禾尚田钨锡矿床、广西珊瑚钨锡矿床、广西社垌钨钼矿床、江西盘古山钨铋矿床等获得了验证,找矿成效显著。     

葛洲坝至胭脂坝长江干流段江豚活动规律

长江江豚是我国一级保护野生动物,也是长江生态系统的指示性物种,其种群数量恢复情况及活动规律一直备受关注。本文选择长江宜昌段江豚活动频繁的葛洲坝下游至胭脂坝江段为研究区域,于2021年6月-2022年5月采用定点目测、水上流动监测与无人机监测相结合的方法分区监测长江江豚的游泳行为,分析长江江豚的活动规律,构建了长江江豚出水头次的零膨胀泊松回归模型,识别影响长江江豚出水头次的关键因素,建立长江江豚出水头次与各因素间的相关关系。结果表明:(1)葛洲坝至胭脂坝长江干流段监测到最大江豚出水头次为19头次,长江江豚集群规模以2~3头最为常见,占比达58.1%;长江江豚主要表现出4种行为特征,各行为占比从大到小依次为:玩耍＞休息＞摄食＞抚幼。(2)长江江豚在葛洲坝下游近坝区(A区,葛洲坝至至喜长江大桥)出水头次最多,且在秋冬季节累计出水头次多于春夏季节,冬季累计出水头次最高,达252头次。(3)长江江豚出水头次与电站下泄流量呈显著负相关;浊度增大,长江江豚出水的概率减小。本文研究结果对长江江豚生态保护策略及长江十年禁渔效果评估具有重要参考价值。