A Disconnection Event of Comet Lulin†

The cometary disconnection event (DE) is the separation of the entire cometary tail or a part of it from the cometary head. It is one of the most spectacular phenomena of comets. The driving mechanism remains unclear, and at present there are many competitive theories to explain the onset of DE. However, the variable solar wind is suspected to play a major role. Comet Lulin exhibited a DE on 4th Feb. 2009. The data around this date are analyzed, and it is found that the comet Lulin had already endured a DE on 3rd Feb. 2009. By comparing the morphologies of the plasma tails in these two DEs, it is concluded that the DE which occurred on 3rd Feb. 2009 is another DE, which is distinct from that of 4th Feb. 2009. In this paper, we describe the results of analysis on the DE dated 3rd Feb. 2009. The measured velocity of disconnection motion is about 68 km/s, and the calculated onset time of this DE is 3.635 ± 0.215 Feb. 2009 in UT decimal date. Combining the orbital characteristics of Comet Lulin before and after the DE occurrence and the solar-wind data measured by the STEREO-A spacecraft, it is concluded that the DE which occurred on 3rd Feb. 2009 was probably caused by the magnetic reconnection due to the interaction between the comet and a coronal mass ejection (CME).     

中国大陆重力场非潮汐时空变化特征的初步分析

本文基于Tsoft软件在潮汐数据预处理中的应用,采用Tsoft数据预处理软件和别尔采夫滤波相结合方法,提取了覆盖中国大陆28个重力固体潮台站连续观测数据的非潮汐分量.对各台站2008～2011年的连续数据,进行了缺失数据补接、地震动事件提取和去除非线性漂移等预处理工作,并通过滤波提取固体潮非潮汐分量.结果表明:除在贵阳、勐腊和十堰3个原始数据质量较差的台站外,其它台站观测数据应用本文方法均取得良好的结果.在此基础上,对处理结果采用滑动平均,将非潮汐分量结果的月均值与GRACE卫星和CMAP降水记录的月采样数据进行对比,结果显示了地表降水同重力变化具有一定相关性特征.此外,基于Tsoft软件的分段曲线漂移拟合能有效去除原始数据中的漂移.     

Performance of detrending models of crop yield risk assessment: evaluation on real and hypothetical yield data

Detrending is a widely used technique for obtaining stationary time series data in residual analysis and risk assessment. The technique is frequently applied in crop yield risk assessment and insurance ratings. Although several trend models have been proposed in the literature, whether these models achieve consistent detrending results and successfully extract the true yield trends is rarely discussed. In the present article, crop insurance pricing is evaluated by different trend models using real and historical yield data, and hypothetical yield data generated by Monte Carlo simulations. Applied to real historical data, the linear, loglinear, autoregressive integrated moving average trend models produce different risk assessment results. The differences among the model outputs are statistically significant. The largest deviation in the county crop assessment reaches 6–8 %, substantially larger than the present countrywide gross premium rate of 5–7 %. In performance tests on simulated yield trends, popular detrending methods based on smoothing techniques proved overall superior to linear, loglinear, and integrated autoregression models. The best performances were yielded by the moving average and robust locally weighted regression models.     

Wave Propagation Modeling and Amplitude-Variation-with-Offset Response in a Fractured Coalbed

Coalbed methane can be detected employing the amplitudevariation-with-offset technique. However, there are two issues in applying this technique to a coalbed: strong azimuthal anisotropy resulting from high-density fractures, and the seismic response being composed of many or several individual reflections within the coalbed. To overcome these difficulties, we present an exact solution for reflections in extensive dilatancy anisotropy media. First, we build a three-layer model and simulate the wave propagation in this model. Then we derive an exact P- and converted S-wave reflection coefficient equation based on boundary conditions. Finally, substituting given model parameters into the exact equation, we obtain the variation in the reflection coefficient with incidence angle. The results show that the fracture factors, wavelet frequency and thickness of the coalbed have different effects on the reflection coefficient. Furthermore, we create a synthetic seismogram by forward calculation, and the result fits well with results of the exact equation.     

The contingency of medicare physician spending on population densities and sizes

The exploration of the spatial association between Medicare physician spending and population densities and sizes could possibly facilitate the investigation of the causal mechanisms beneath the variation in medical care. We acquired the U.S. Medicare physician expenditures and regional demographic and geographic data in 2006 from the Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care. Six geographic units—states, counties, Hospital Referral Regions, Hospital Service Areas, Metropolitan Statistical Areas, and state non-Metropolitan Statistical Areas—were used as units of study. Pearson correlation analysis, multivariable regression, and partial correlation analysis were employed. Among six geographic units, Pearson correlation coefficients between Medicare physician expenditures and logarithmic population densities ranged from 0.42 to 0.63 (p < 0.05 for all), and between the expenditures and logarithmic population sizes from 0.31 to 0.65 (p < 0.05 for all). When population health, differential demand, market structure, and data reporting bias were controlled, population densities and sizes were positively associated with Medicare physician expenditures in most models. Population densities and sizes could explain considerable amounts of regional variation in Medicare physician spending. We concluded that Medicare physician spending was contingent on population densities and sizes. Because population densities and sizes are produced by more fundamental qualities such as natural environments and resources and thus are not easily manipulated, they are suggestive in health policy studies. Further research might investigate population distribution associated properties such as geographic distribution of health care resources, spatial dynamics of medical technology distribution, and cultural and psychological factors.     

Modeling coastal tsunami hazard from submarine mass failures: effect of slide rheology,experimental validation,and case studies off the US East Coast

Natural Hazards - We perform numerical simulations to assess how coastal tsunami hazard from submarine mass failures (SMFs) is affected by slide kinematics and rheology. Two types of two-layer SMF...     

稳健总体最小二乘Helmert方差分量估计

对于总体最小二乘而言,经常需要处理不同精度或者不同类型的观测数据,根据先验方差来定权往往不准确,同时观测数据中可能含有粗差。针对这两个问题,提出稳健总体最小二乘Helmert方差分量估计,将稳健估计和Helmert方差分量估计同时应用于总体最小二乘中。最后通过两个实验的计算结果表明,该方法是可行的、有效的。     

Single Nucleotide Polymorphism of FSHβ Gene Associated with Reproductive Traits in Japanese Flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus)

Follicle stimulating hormone β (FSHβ) of Japanese flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus) plays a key role in the regulation of gonadal development.This study aimed to investigate molecular genetic characteristics of the FSHβ gene and elucidate the effects of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of FSHβ on reproductive traits in Japanese flounder.We used polymerase chain reaction single-strand conformation polymorphism (PCR-SSCP) and sequencing of the FSHβ gene in 60 individuals.We identified only an SNP (T/C) in the coding region of exon3 of FSHβ.The SNP (T/C) did not lead to amino acid changes at the position 340 bp of FSHβ gene.Statistical analysis showed that the SNP was significantly associated with testosterone (T) level and gonadosomatic index (GSI) (P0.05).Individuals with genotype TC of the SNP had significantly higher serum T levels and GSI (P0.05) than that of genotype CC.Therefore, FSHβ gene could be a useful molecular marker in selection for prominent reproductive trait in Japanese Flounder.     

Soil erosion changes over the past five decades in the red soil region of Southern China

This paper reports the dynamic changes of soil and water loss in the red soil region of Southern China since the 1950s. The red soil region covers eight provinces: Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong and Hainan. From the 1950s to 1986, the annual rate of soil erosion increased by 3.4%. From 1986 to 1996 and from 1996 to 2000, the annual rates of soil erosion decreased by 2.0% and 0.32%, respectively. Field surveys showed that from 2000 to 2005, the area of soil and water loss decreased annually by 1.2%. This decrease was a result of large-scale erosion control activities across China. Although the eroded soil has been restored, the restoration process is very slow and full restoration will take a long time. Our report suggests that controlling soil and water loss is a challenging task, and additional measures must be taken to effectively control the soil erosion in the red soil region.