热带副热带地区初值问题和强迫响应问题的正压正规模态分析

本文对线性无辐散正压涡度方程模式进行了正规模态分析,讨论了解的性质。然后利用这一结果对观测的1月300hPa基态分别作了初值问题和定常强迫响应问题的研究。结果表明,热带和副热带地区特别是印度洋—西太平洋地区是初值和强迫扰动激发大振幅响应的关键区。      

乐德矿带成矿系列与成矿规律

乐华—德兴矿带是指江西省内呈NE走向的有色金属和贵金属成矿带,带内有丰富的Cu、Pb、Zn、Au、Ag等矿产资源,其中铜储量约占我国总储量的17.5％。 矿带位于扬子地台南缘关帽山地背斜内,广泛发育中元古代双桥山下亚群和轴向呈EW向或NE向的线状基底褶皱。矿带两侧为断层或地块。矿带内有许多韧性剪切带和燕山期中酸性火成岩,呈NE向分布。 矿带有5个矿田,15个矿床,划分为两个成矿系。是根据其成矿控制因素,矿床物质组分,REE含量,S、Pb、O等稳定同位素,以及黄铁矿中的Co、Ni含量和Co/Ni比值。两个成矿系为:(1)Cu-Pb-Zn-Ag(Au);(2)Au。矿系(1)呈简单的水平分带,矿化与燕山期中酸性岩浆活动有关,而矿系(2)的矿化则与韧性剪切带和晚期断层作用直接有关。     

地下水对地电前兆影响的实验研究

以含水岩土为样本，研究了不同含水率，不同矿化度，不同压力，不同温度以及岩土层中重力水面的不等高度状态下岩土电阻率的定量变化，实验表明，岩土介质电阻率与所含水的特性有十分密切的关系，该实验首次把地下水前兆与地地前兆作为一个整体，来研究地者之间的内在联系，并分析其相关特征。     

陕西小秦岭地区太华群的重新厘定

陕西小秦岭地区太华群变质岩与国内外许多高级片麻岩区类似，存在大量的深成花岗质片麻岩体，它们经过多期变质变形作用，形成具不同基础岩石类型的多相片麻岩。本文在吸收前人研究成果的基础上，依据区内岩石组合的岩石学、岩石地球化学等特征，将原划太华群重新厘定为太华岩群、翁岔铺片麻岩套、太峪岭片麻岩套、佛头崖单元、罗斑花岗伟晶岩及葫芦沟变砂岩，并首次在本区建立了相应的构─岩石单位体系。     

Evolution and preservation potential of fluvial and transgressive deposits on the Louisiana inner shelf: understanding depositional processes to support coastal management

The barrier-island systems of the Mississippi River Delta plain are currently undergoing some of the highest rates of shoreline retreat in North America (~20 m/year). Effective management of this coastal area requires an understanding of the processes involved in shoreline erosion and measures that can be enacted to reduce loss. The dominant stratigraphy of the delta plain is fluvial mud (silts and clays), delivered in suspension via a series of shallow-water delta lobes that prograded across the shelf throughout the Holocene. Abandonment of a delta lobe through avulsion leads to rapid land subsidence through compaction within the muddy framework. As the deltaic headland subsides below sea level, the marine environment transgresses the bays and wetlands, reworking the available sands into transgressive barrier shorelines. This natural process is further complicated by numerous factors: (1) global sea-level rise; (2) reduced sediment load within the Mississippi River; (3) diversion of the sediment load away from the barrier shorelines to the deep shelf; (4) storm-induced erosion; and (5) human alteration of the littoral process through the construction of hardened shorelines, canals, and other activities. This suite of factors has led to the deterioration of the barrier-island systems that protect interior wetlands and human infrastructure from normal wave activity and periodic storm impact. Interior wetland loss results in an increased tidal prism and inlet cross-sectional areas, and expanding ebb-tidal deltas, which removes sand from the littoral processes through diversion and sequestration. Shoreface erosion of the deltaic headlands does not provide sufficient sand to balance the loss, resulting in thinning and dislocation of the islands. Abatement measures include replenishing lost sediment with similar material, excavated from discrete sandy deposits within the muddy delta plain. These sand bodies were deposited by the same cyclical processes that formed the barrier islands, and understanding these processes is necessary to characterize their location, extent, and resource potential. In this paper we demonstrate the dominant fluvial and marine-transgressive depositional processes that occur on the inner shelf, and identify the preservation and resource potential of fluvio-deltaic deposits for coastal management in Louisiana.     

Temporal variability in summertime bottom hypoxia in shallow areas of Mobile Bay,Alabama

This paper addresses temporal variability in bottom hypoxia in broad shallow areas of Mobile Bay, Alabama. Time-series data collected in the summer of 2004 from one station (mean depth of 4 m) exhibit bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) variations associated with various time scales of hours to days. Despite a large velocity shear, stratification was strong enough to suppress vertical mixing most of the time. Bottom DO was closely related to the vertical salinity gradient (ΔS). Hypoxia seldom occurred when ΔS (over 2.5 m) was <2 psu and occurred almost all the time when ΔS was >8 psu in the absence of extreme events like hurricanes. Oxygen balance between vertical mixing and total oxygen demand was considered for bottom water from which oxygen demand and diffusive oxygen flux were estimated. The estimated decay rates at 20°C ranging between 0.175–0.322 d⁻¹ and the corresponding oxygen consumption as large as 7.4 g O₂ m⁻² d⁻¹ fall at the upper limit of previously reported ranges. The diffusive oxygen flux and the corresponding vertical diffusivity estimated for well mixed conditions range between 8.6–9.5 g O₂ m⁻² d⁻¹ and 2.6–2.9 m² d⁻¹, respectively. Mobile Bay hypoxia is likely to be associated with a large oxygen demand, supported by both water column and sediment oxygen demands, so that oxygen supply from surface water during destratification events would be quickly exhausted to return to hypoxic conditions within a few hours to days after destratification events are terminated.     

From global to local: Testing the potential of cross-scaling in global data sets

The present study investigates the potential of readily available and easily accessible global data sets to understand regional/local level interactions in wetland systems. The biogeographical zones of India were used a base-frame to select three sites. The study well fits the interests of National Wetland Committee of India to investigate and document fundamental information on wetland extent/distribution. The national partnership with SACON represents this interest. SACON commenced the inland wetland inventory module at national scale using geospatial data, although the provincial scale analysis is underway. In addition, the global irrigated area mapping (GIAM-IWMI) project generated multi-scalar spatial outputs for irrigated/rain-fed areas. With the existing information base, a multi-level geospatial analysis using Arc GIS algorithmic modelling was used to derive comprehensive appraisal of wetland systems complementing the data from GIAM and SACON. It was observed that the overlap between the two layers was 58 percent for Gujarat and 10 percent in Tamil Nadu. In Krishna basin the wetland’s cover 1.04 million hectare excluding the rice agro-ecosystem. The difference in the biogeography of the case sites governs the gradient of information derived from both data layers. Additionally, the global lakes and wetlands database (GLWD) database added thematic information on coastal wetlands. In summary we describe the cross-scaling the global data layers to compliment the regional/national level monitoring assignments.     

Simultaneous estimation of cross-validation errors in least squares collocation applied for statistical testing and evaluation of the noise variance components

The cross-validation technique is a popular method to assess and improve the quality of prediction by least squares collocation (LSC). We present a formula for direct estimation of the vector of cross-validation errors (CVEs) in LSC which is much faster than element-wise CVE computation. We show that a quadratic form of CVEs follows Chi-squared distribution. Furthermore, a posteriori noise variance factor is derived by the quadratic form of CVEs. In order to detect blunders in the observations, estimated standardized CVE is proposed as the test statistic which can be applied when noise variances are known or unknown. We use LSC together with the methods proposed in this research for interpolation of crustal subsidence in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The results show that after detection and removing outliers, the root mean square (RMS) of CVEs and estimated noise standard deviation are reduced about 51 and 59%, respectively. In addition, RMS of LSC prediction error at data points and RMS of estimated noise of observations are decreased by 39 and 67%, respectively. However, RMS of LSC prediction error on a regular grid of interpolation points covering the area is only reduced about 4% which is a consequence of sparse distribution of data points for this case study. The influence of gross errors on LSC prediction results is also investigated by lower cutoff CVEs. It is indicated that after elimination of outliers, RMS of this type of errors is also reduced by 19.5% for a 5 km radius of vicinity. We propose a method using standardized CVEs for classification of dataset into three groups with presumed different noise variances. The noise variance components for each of the groups are estimated using restricted maximum-likelihood method via Fisher scoring technique. Finally, LSC assessment measures were computed for the estimated heterogeneous noise variance model and compared with those of the homogeneous model. The advantage of the proposed method is the reduction in estimated noise levels for those groups with the fewer number of noisy data points.     

卫星观测的我国近海海域闪电分布特征

利用星载闪电探测仪OTD（optical transient detecter）和LIS(lightning imaging sensor)所获取的1995年6月—2006年4月的卫星闪电资料,结合NOAA Optimum Interpolation SST 海温资料,分析我国近海海域的闪电分布时空特征以及闪电活动与该海域海温之间的相关性。结果表明：我国近海闪电密度平均值为3.39 fl·km-2·a-1,其中,南海和渤海的闪电活动相对频繁,随着与海岸线间距离以及纬度的增加,该海域闪电密度逐渐下降;在春季和冬季,黑潮主干海域的海温值相对较高,该处闪电活动也明显强于同纬度的东海近海和太平洋海域,表明黑潮海域是强闪电活动区;在季节变化上,我国近海海域闪电活动与同海域海温呈明显正相关,相关系数达0.797,闪电活动与海温变化体现出了一致的变化趋势;而在年际变化上,我国近海海域闪电活动与该海域海温的线性相关不显著,说明我国近海海域海温的年际变化并不是引起该海域闪电活动年际变化的主要原因。     

Assessment of the Pacific decadal oscillation’s contribution to the occurrence of local torrential rainfall in north China

On 21–22 July 2012, torrential rains hit North China, with the daily precipitation record at Beijing station reaching 160.6 mm; this event is named the Beijing 7–21 case. This paper assesses the likelihood of the occurrence of local torrential rains, such as the Beijing 7–21 case, from the perspective of climate variability. In particular, the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is assessed. There were five extreme events, with daily precipitation records equal to or larger than 160.6 mm, at Beijing station during the period 1951–2012; all of these events happened during negative phases of the PDO. The present analysis indicates that precipitation events more extreme than the Beijing 7–21 case should happen more than once per decade during negative phases of the PDO, but only about once every four decades during positive PDO phases. The negative phase of the PDO is found to be associated with a much greater probability of daily records of southerly winds in North China during summer. Strong southerly summer monsoons are deemed favorable for increasing the occurrence of local extreme rainfall over North China.