考虑超随机特性的人工地震动合成

文中根据自相关函数随机噪声部分的2个重要性质提出了自相关函数随机噪声部分的迭代生成算法,并给出了以确定性自相关函数为目标函数,考虑随机噪声部分影响的人工合成地震动方法.本文的研究结果表明地震动加速度的平方和（SS）比峰值加速度（PGA）更好地量度了地震地面运动强度.文中用蒙特卡罗方法分析了自相关函数噪声项对人工合成地震动幅值和反应谱的影响：由于自相关函数的随机噪声项对地震动总功率或平方和的贡献为0,因此随机噪声项对合成地震动幅值的影响不大,但由于自相关函数随机噪声项明显改变了地震动功率谱在频域上的分布特征,使原本光滑的平均反应谱出现了明显的波动,从而在一定程度上提高了平均反应谱的峰值,使自相关函数噪声部分对平均反应谱也有一些影响.     

青藏高原雪盖异常对我国环流和降水的影响

利用美国NOAA NESDIS提供的1975—1986年青藏高原地区卫星雪盖资料，作出了各月冬季青藏高原雪盖频率图。发现1—3月是高原雪盖面积最大的月份，在此期间高原雪盖面积有明显的持续性，并与欧亚雪盖面积有较高的一致性。根据3月高原雪盖异常与中国环流和降水的关系，发现高原雪盖异常的后延冷却效应较弱，大约不足一个月；3月高原多雪以后，5月东亚北风加大，南岭以北降水偏少，少雪年则相反。     

Evaluation of global climate model on performances of precipitation simulation and prediction in the Huaihe River basin

Using climate models with high performance to predict the future climate changes can increase the reliability of results. In this paper, six kinds of global climate models that selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Path (RCP) 4.5 scenarios were compared to the measured data during baseline period (1960–2000) and evaluate the simulation performance on precipitation. Since the results of single climate models are often biased and highly uncertain, we examine the back propagation (BP) neural network and arithmetic mean method in assembling the precipitation of multi models. The delta method was used to calibrate the result of single model and multimodel ensembles by arithmetic mean method (MME-AM) during the validation period (2001–2010) and the predicting period (2011–2100). We then use the single models and multimodel ensembles to predict the future precipitation process and spatial distribution. The result shows that BNU-ESM model has the highest simulation effect among all the single models. The multimodel assembled by BP neural network (MME-BP) has a good simulation performance on the annual average precipitation process and the deterministic coefficient during the validation period is 0.814. The simulation capability on spatial distribution of precipitation is: calibrated MME-AM > MME-BP > calibrated BNU-ESM. The future precipitation predicted by all models tends to increase as the time period increases. The order of average increase amplitude of each season is: winter > spring > summer > autumn. These findings can provide useful information for decision makers to make climate-related disaster mitigation plans.     

2005年3月一次寒潮天气过程的诊断分析

利用NECP1°×1°的6小时分析资料和常规观测等资料,对2005年3月10~13日一次全国性寒潮天气过程的环流背景、影响天气系统及成因进行了分析。结果表明:这次寒潮及寒潮天气主要成因是(1)西欧上空500hPa强暖平流致使在西伯利亚地区形成阻塞高压,建立横槽,横槽北侧的东北气流引导超极地冷空气和西路冷空气合并加强;形成了异常强的冷高压、锋区、冷温度中心和冷温度平流。(2)两个短波槽东移侵入阻塞高压,使得横槽两次建立和转为竖槽,导致强冷空气大举南侵。(3)寒潮带来大范围强降温、700hPa西南急流与冷空气交汇、1000hPa以上层气温在0℃以下的垂直分布,为南方大到暴雪提供了动力、水汽和凝结的温度条件。     

1994-2006年长江三角洲和东北平原酸性气体浓度变化

 利用长江三角洲和东北平原地区大气本底站的二氧化硫（SO2）和氮氧化物（NOx）历史资料和近期取得的观测数据,探讨两个地区人为排放对这些气候相关酸性气体的不同贡献。从两种酸性气体过去和现在的浓度水平,估算了它们在两个地区的增长率,比较了NOx与SO2比值的不同变化趋势。结果表明,早在20世纪90年代中期,长江三角洲酸性气体污染水平已经较高,其后主要是NOx浓度显著升高,从而使该地区成为硫和氮污染并重的地区;东北平原酸性气体过去浓度很低,但这些气体以很高的速率增长,虽然目前浓度水平仍然比较低,但未来形势不容乐观。     

夏季青藏高原水汽输送特征

使用ＧＭＳ－５的６．７μｍ水汽图、云图及天气图等资料，综合分析了１９９５年６月中旬至７月上旬青藏高原上空的水汽输送过程，总结出中、高层水汽输送的三种环流型特征（脊东型、脊西型和反相型）；并初步分析了它们与降雨的关系。     

深圳市闪电定位资料误差分析及其优化

利用场地误差优化模式对深圳地区的地闪定位资料进行优化处理。首先对深圳市闪电定位系统进行简单介绍,然后利用改进的传输线模式对真实地表环境下的闪电辐射电磁场进行计算,以分析深圳市闪电定位系统的场地误差,最后基于定位误差和场地误差模式对闪电定位数据进行定位误差订正。结果表明不同方位角上的不规则地形对继后回击电磁场波形具有不同影响,随着表征地形粗糙程度的高度均方根的增加,电场的峰值下降,波形的上升沿时间增加。同时,电场波形上升沿时间也会随着方位角的变化而变化,这可能会给时间到达法的定位带来一定误差。为了验证该算法的合理性,对该系统覆盖的区域进行了闪电定位数据优化精度的时空分布分析和评估。结果表明这种优化方案是可行的、可靠的,优化后的闪电定位精度明显提高。     

内蒙古地区T639气象要素预报性能评估检验

通过T639模式预报产品在内蒙古地区降水量、2 m温度、相对湿度和10 m风向、风速及降水过程预报效果的适用性研究,得出以下结论,温度和相对湿度预报的准确率较风向、风速明显偏高,温度和相对湿度预报的误差系统偏小,风速预报误差偏大的概率较大;降水量的预报准确率随降水等级增加而递减,对小雨而言,模式漏报率小于空报率,多报降水的偏差和少报降水的偏差相近。在预报要素空间分布上,风向预报的偏差顺时针偏转,其夹角小于45°,温度预报偏差总体偏小,相对湿度预报偏差由西向东表现为“+、-、+、-”的分布特征;小雨和中雨落区预报偏大,暴雨落区预报偏小;贝加尔湖冷涡强度的预报偏强,西太平洋副热带高压的强度预报偏弱,影响范围偏西偏北。     

Elemental characteristics of lacustrine oil shale and its controlling factors of palaeo-sedimentary environment on oil yield: a case from Chang 7 oil layer of Triassic Yanchang Formation in southern Ordos Basin

As an important unconventional resource, oil shale has received widespread attention. The oil shale of the Chang 7 oil layer from Triassic Yanchang Formation in Ordos Basin represents the typical lacustrine oil shale in China. Based on analyzing trace elements and oil yield from boreholes samples, characteristics and paleo-sedimentary environments of oil shale and relationship between paleo-sedimentary environment and oil yield were studied. With favorable quality, oil yield of oil shale varies from 1.4% to 9.1%. Geochemical data indicate that the paleo-redox condition of oil shale’s reducing condition from analyses of V/Cr, V/(V + Ni), U/Th, δU, and authigenic uranium. Equivalent Boron, Sp, and Sr/Ba illustrate that paleosalinity of oil shale is dominated by fresh water. The paleoclimate of oil shale is warm and humid by calculating the chemical index of alteration and Sr/Cu. Fe/Ti and (Fe + Mn)/Ti all explain that there were hot water activities during the sedimentary period of oil shale. In terms of Zr/Rb, paleohydrodynamics of oil shale is weak. By means of Co abundance and U/Th, paleo-water-depth of oil shale is from 17.30 to 157.26 m, reflecting sedimentary environment which is mainly in semi deep–deep lake facies. Correlation analyses between oil yield and six paleoenvironmental factors show that the oil yield of oil shale is mainly controlled by paleo-redox conditions, paleoclimate, hot water activities, and depth of water. Paleosalinity and paleohydrodynamics have an inconspicuous influence on oil yield.     

中国贵金属矿床的基本成矿规律与找矿方向

通过对近年来贵金属矿床勘查进展及其主要类型、主要成矿时代、主要矿集区等的分析与归纳,总结了中国金矿床、银矿床和铂族元素矿床的基本成矿规律,并提出它们各自的找矿方向。中国金矿床类型多,主要形成于中生代和新生代,集中在胶东、辽东、华北地台边缘、小秦岭、阿尔泰、金沙江-红河断裂带、台湾和东南沿海、滇黔桂、陕甘川及长江、黑龙江等主要水系的上游,金矿的找矿方向包括:①老矿区的"探边摸底"和"攻深找盲";②新矿集区的典型研究与采选冶技术改进;③综合利用技术的创新将使相当多的表外矿变为当前可开采的矿床;④新区勘查;⑤加强成矿系列、成矿体系和成矿规律的研究,以理论指导找矿并综合评价。中国银矿以伴生银矿为主,主要形成于中生代和新生代,变质岩、岩浆岩和沉积岩均可容矿,造山带和盆地区的构造破碎带尤其值得重视。当前需要加强对锰矿区含银性和Mn异常区的研究,尤其是中国东部中新生代盆地区断裂带与Mn、Ag化探异常吻合地区,应该综合评价。中国铂族元素矿床可以分为岩浆型、沉积型和热液型三大类,可形成于从前寒武纪到新生代的各个时代,至少构成8个重要成矿远景区(带),重点放在康滇地轴和二叠纪末期峨眉地幔柱影响到的地区,但华北地台老基底中的原生矿及其周边的砂矿不可忽视。