2018年2月12日河北永清4.3级地震强震动记录分析

2018年2月12日河北省廊坊市永清县发生4.3级地震,震中位于廊固凹陷内的河西务断裂附近,国家强震动台网中心获取74组强震动记录,本文对触发台站进行场地分类,结果显示大部分为Ⅰ类场地(51.35%),其次为Ⅱ类场地(35.14%)和Ⅲ类场地(13.51%)。根据5个典型台站加速度时程记录及反应谱分析本次地震强震动特征,并对各台站峰值加速度反应谱与方位角和震中距的关系进行分析。采用克里格插值方法绘制地震仪器烈度分布图,由于台站分布不均,导致极震区附近烈度影响场计算缺值现象,本文通过拟合本次地震强震动记录得到该地区地震动衰减关系,在空白区域建立空间随机假设台站进行补点插值,解决了计算缺值问题,为缺少台站记录的震区提供准确快速制作烈度分布图的思路,为震害调查和地震应急救援提供重要依据。     

1975—1976年地震活动与近两年全球和中国地震活动图象的比较研究及趋势分析

根据“比较科学学”的对比研究方法,对1975—1976年全球地震和中国地震活动,与最近两年全球地震活动作了对比,并分析了1900—1990年全球范围和中国大陆地震活动的特点。 据资料分析,全球性地震活动随时间分布具有高潮期和低潮期。最强烈活动期为1940—1950年左右,Ms≥7级地震年频次为25—40次;相对活动最低潮期为1980—1988年,Ms≥7级地震年颁次只有5—12次。我国境内地震活动也有高潮和低潮活动期,目前,我国大陆处于一个新的地震活动高潮期。 1980—1988年是全球性8级地震较少时段,可能是地震能量积累过程。1990年全球地震活动的突然增强,仅半年时间内发生12次Ms≥7级地震,其中菲律宾发生8级地震,震情与1975—1976年情况相类似。 本文在对比活动图象基础上,估计了全球和中国大陆今后几年中的强震活动趋势。     

A systematic approach to the input determination for neural network rainfall–runoff models

Input determination has a great influence on the performance of artificial neural network (ANN) rainfall–runoff models. To improve the performance of ANN models, a systematic approach to the input determination for ANN models is proposed. In the proposed approach, the irrelevant inputs are removed. Then an adequate ANN model, which only includes highly relevant inputs, is constructed. Unlike the trial‐and‐error procedure, the proposed approach is more systematic and avoids unnecessary trials. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, an application to actual typhoon events is presented. The results show that the proposed ANN model, which is constructed by the proposed approach, has advantages over those obtained by the trial‐and‐error procedure. The proposed ANN model has a simpler architecture, needs less training time, and performs better. The proposed ANN model is recommended as an alternative to existing rainfall–runoff ANN models. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of Nash's IUH and DEMs to identify the parameters of an unequal‐reservoir cascade IUH model

Under the assumption that hydrograph generation was affected by n linear reservoirs with the same value of storage coefficient k, Nash proposed the formulation of the Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH), which has been widely used in rainfall–runoff simulation and flood forecasting. However, the assumption of the parameter k having the same value in all reservoirs is obviously unphysical as it results in the estimated value of n not being integral. In this study, for parameter n integral, the different k value for each reservoir was derived using the Laplace transform and developing a general rule for the equation of the IUH of any order. The relationship between parameter k and the slope of the river channel estimated using digital elevation model (DEM) data is established, the parameter estimation procedures are given. As in most unit hydrograph studies, only isolated storm events are considered here. Seventeen flood events in three catchments were selected for the case studies. Application results show that the proposed method is slightly better than Nash's IUH with higher model efficiency and smaller absolute relative errors. This work provides a new methodology for the formulation of the IUH. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An Assessment of ENSO Stability in CAMS Climate System Model Simulations

We present an overview of the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) stability simulation using the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences climate system model(CAMS-CSM). The ENSO stability was quantified based on the Bjerknes(BJ) stability index. Generally speaking, CAMS-CSM has the capacity of reasonably representing the BJ index and ENSO-related air–sea feedback processes. The major simulation biases exist in the underestimated thermodynamic damping and thermocline feedbacks. Further diagnostic analysis reveals that the underestimated thermodynamic feedback is due to the underestimation of the shortwave radiation feedback, which arises from the cold bias in mean sea surface temperature(SST) over central–eastern equatorial Pacific(CEEP). The underestimated thermocline feedback is attributed to the weakened mean upwelling and weakened wind–SST feedback(μ_a) in the model simulation compared to observation. We found that the weakened μ_a is also due to the cold mean SST over the CEEP.The study highlights the essential role of reasonably representing the climatological mean state in ENSO simulations.     

干涉雷达在DEM测量中的精度影响及处理方法

干涉合成孔径雷达 (INSAR)为数字高程模型 (DEM)测量提供了一种新的手段。它具有同时获取三维信息、测量范围广、空间和高程分辨率高等优点。文中首先扼要介绍了干涉雷达的原理 ,然后重点讨论几个影响测量精度的因素及其处理方法 ,如相关、运动补偿、配准、相位展开等。     

近56a洛阳地区雾和霾气候特征及其气象要素分析

利用1961—2016年洛阳9个县(市)地面气象观测站的雾、霾日数及相关气象要素资料,采用统计学方法分析了洛阳地区雾和霾日数的时空分布特征及影响其产生的气象要素特征。结果表明:近56a来洛阳市平均年雾日数在20世纪80和90年代较多,21世纪初开始逐渐减少,但在2015—2016年明显增加;平均年霾日数以2013—2016年最多;雾和霾日数在冬季最多,夏季最少。2000—2016年洛阳市雾日数自北向南逐渐减少,霾日数则在西部多、东部少,全区霾日数较1981—2010年明显增加。对雾、霾日气象要素的分析表明,相对湿度越大雾出现的频率越高、能见度越低,浓雾发生时相对湿度一般都在90%以上;中度和重度霾发生时相对湿度主要集中在50%~79%。雾发生时气温主要在-4.0~4.0℃之间,中度和重度霾发生时,气温分别集中在0~15.0℃和0~8.0℃,轻微和轻度霾发生时气温分布范围较大,以0~10.0℃较为集中。雾和霾出现时风速大部分在3.0m·s^-1及以下,并且主要是来自东北、东东北风向区域。     

华南大陆四次裂陷和中新生代南华造山带

同位素地质学、岩石学、成矿学、地球物理学等新成果表明，华南震旦纪以来的构造层之下普遍存在元古代一太古代变质基底。四堡期（Ｐｔ＋２）雪峰期（Ｐｔ３）发生两次陆内裂陷，形成断续的岩石圈断裂，局部性陆间沟一弧和小洋盆，把华南古大陆分成扬子块体和华夏块体。两次陆缘裂陷分别形成广西期（Ｚ一Ｓ）华南大陆边缘弧后扩张盆地和新生代琉球弧一菲律宾弧后东海一南海扩张盆地。东海一南海的前寒武纪陆块是华南一东南亚大陆裂解碎块，它不存在另一前寒武纪陆块，不存在印支一南海准地台。讨论了许靖华关于华南三叠纪碰撞造山带的理论，结论如下：（１）华南造山带命题正确，但论据不真实，对于该造山带的性质、特点和形成机制的理解不确切。（２）元古代构造混杂岩一蛇绿混杂岩不能做为三叠纪造山带的证据。（３）不存在扬子和华南二块体的三叠纪碰撞，因为没有发生过“印支造山运动”，也没有出现过古生代湘赣浙大洋。（４）华南是双向“干造山带”，泥盆纪至中王叠世地台盖层和上覆中新生代盆地层在无海侵的大地构造环境下，经历了多幕造山运动，形成具有双向大地构造线的造山带。在南西侧的特提斯构造域以北西一北西西向占优势；在南东侧的北西太平洋构造域以北东向为主。（５）地台盖层和盆地     

太行山中北段褶皱构造序列

太行山中北段中－深变质岩区的褶皱构造变形复杂，不同期次间叠加改造强烈，构造置换作用明显，作者采用变质岩区构造解析方法，在观察，测量，分析了大量构造面，线组构的基础上，划分出５期褶皱构造，建立了本区的构造变形序列，并认为构造变形经历了从强塑性变表到韧脆性变形的演化过程，反映出地壳从纵向增厚作用转变为变质核杂岩隆升的演化过程。