低涡影响下湖南一次致洪极端暴雨过程成因分析

利用NCEP再分析资料和地面自动站观测数据,从环流特征、低涡演变等方面,诊断分析了2019年7月6~9日湖南中南部地区的一次致洪极端暴雨过程的成因。结果表明：此次极端暴雨具有显著极端性和“潇湘夜雨”的日变化特征,在副高长时间稳定、主体异常偏南的环流背景下,地面浅薄冷空气侵入,不对称的位涡分布、中低层持续较强上升运动促使低涡加强并长时间维持是造成湖南此次极端暴雨的主要原因。低涡加强时段与降水最强时段、正位涡中心与暴雨中心均对应较好。强降雨发展阶段垂直螺旋度维持“下正上负”分布特征,低层正值中心的大小与降水强度变化一致。湖南中部以南强雨带与低层正螺旋度大值中心均出现在南岭山脉北麓的陡峭地形区。水汽主要来源于边界层,925 hPa水汽汇合中心出现时刻、区域与暴雨发生时段、落区吻合,两支主要的水汽输送带分别来源于孟加拉湾的偏西气流和南海的西南气流。     

数字滤波方法在月尺度数值预报中的应用：II.保留不同低频过程的效果比较

用数字滤波方法对观测资料序列进行处理，得到初始场用于Ｔ４２Ｌ９全球谱模式的月预报，以去除误差增长较快的高频扰动对低频过程的影响，并且利用多时刻的观测资料提取低频过程的信息。对冬季和夏季两个不同个例进行了实例，并比较了取不同长度的观测序列，截取不同周期的过程作为初值对预报效果的影响。结果说明，经过滤波后对低频分量和平均场的预报都有显著的改进。而且对于较长时效的预报，应保留更低频的过程（比如１０ｄ以上     

基于自动机器学习的机场温度预报方法研究

利用2015年1月—2021年3月ECMWF细网格数值预报产品构建训练样本,使用自动机器学习方法构建乌鲁木齐机场温度预测模型.结果表明:(1)ECMWF模式直接输出的乌鲁木齐机场温度平均绝对误差为1.7℃,基于自动机器学习方法的Auto-sklearn模型和Auto-Keras模型能够改善模式直接输出的误差,使平均绝对...     

南京地区7—8午后雷阵雨天气

本文主要分析南京地区７－８月发生午后雷阵雨天气,气候与其相关的革些参数的特征,以及大尺度的天气形势条件,用南京单站资料分析位热不稳定度和不稳定能量,从物理场判定南京是否处于产生雷阵雨的潜在不稳定区内,从相关资料中建立南京地区７￣８月午后雷阵雨天气的概率预报方程。e     

A brief introduction to BNU-HESM1.0 and its earth surface temperature simulations

Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper,a new human–earth system model,BNUHESM1.0,constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model,is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating the global CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that,compared to observation,BNU-HESM1.0underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965–2005,due to the uncertainty in the economic components. However,the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation,resulting from the overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within the range of present earth system uncertainty,so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM1.0 that needs to be improved through further study. However,the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigate the complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that prove valuable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate.     

LCA简介及小城镇生活垃圾治理以及在环境评价中的应用

针对当前小城镇生活垃圾的特点,根据SETAC和ISO14000关于生命周期评价的技术框架,应用生命周期评价对小城镇生活垃圾生命周期各个阶段成本消耗和环境影响进行定量化分析和评估,同时结合复合生态学理论,提出小城镇的生活垃圾的治理途径,保证小城镇生态建设规划的实施。     

温湿结构对南海低压发展影响的数值模拟研究

本文对比分析了两个南海热带低压,其中一个在24小时内发展为台风,而另一个不发展。通过几个改变初始场温、湿结构的数值试验的对比分析,指出低压区的温、湿结构对低压发展起着很重要的作用。中低层有深厚的高湿层存在,以及中低层有暖心存在,都有利于低压的发展加强,反之,中低层湿度较小或湿层较浅,以及暖心在高层而中低层无暖心,都不利于低压发展加强。同时,温、湿结构对低压发展的影响,可能主要是通过影响条件不稳定层的深浅和强弱,以及影响中低层的水汽能量供应,导致对流的发展趋势发生变化来实现的。最后指出,南海低压的发展对低压区的温度和湿度变化很敏感。      

The Stanford Climate Change Behavior Survey (SCCBS): assessing greenhouse gas emissions-related behaviors in individuals and populations

Many individual-level behaviors are associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reliable and valid assessment instruments are needed to (1) identify behaviors and populations to target with emissions-reduction programs and policies, (2) evaluate the effectiveness of such programs, (3) link self-reported and objective measures of GHG emissions to establish the impact of specific behaviors, and (4) estimate frequencies of behaviors and their changes over time to aid policy makers in understanding energy consumption trends. The self-administered Stanford Climate Change Behavior Survey (SCCBS) is shown to be a reliable and valid instrument that can be used for these purposes in college students, and we anticipate that it will also be useful for assessing these behaviors in other adolescent or adult populations in developed countries. Questions included behaviors likely to be within the control of most individuals and did not include behaviors specific to home owners (e.g. appliance purchases). Ten indices were identified: Energy Use, No-, Low-, and High-GHG Transportation, Waste, Food Packaging, High- and Low-GHG Food, Food Purchasing, and GHG Credits use. A Total GHG Behavior score was calculated. Test–retest reliabilities of individual items ranged from .64 to .91. Internal consistency reliabilities for each of the indices ranged from .51 to .89. Most indices were statistically significantly correlated with one another. Correlational validity of the SCCBS was demonstrated with statistically significant associations between behavior scores and perceived importance of environmental sustainability and membership in an environmental organization. The use of the SCCBS to identify potential target sub-populations and behaviors was demonstrated.