突发地质灾害气象预警统计模型与应用

通过引入地质灾害潜势度,突发地质灾害气象预警统计模型解决了雨量判据法不能明确表达地质环境条件的问题,在此基础上,提出了潜势度计算、大气降雨变量设计、预警方程优化3方面的改进方法。为提高潜势度计算的准确性,增加了基于卡方检验的地质环境因子独立性判别步骤;对地质环境因子确信程度初始值和权值计算中确信程度变化量初始值设置进行了规定;并将预警模型中累计雨量修正为更为合理的有效累计雨量。在现有的预警方程的基础上提出了基于联合概率分析的预警方程,避免了其与基本地质认识和物理规律存在一定距离、方程系数的意义不明确的局限。以2009年7月2日发布的24 h雨量预报为例,计算结果表明：虽然预报区域面积从101 008 km²减小到27 553 km²,但是地质灾害点落入预报区的比例从44%增加到62%。这说明通过改进的预警模型理论上更加严密,空间准确率有所提高,空报率有所下降。     

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策克台井下宽频带地震计GL?S120B正弦波标定衰减因子的讨论

为解决EDAS?24GN6数据采集器对策克台井下宽频带地震计GL?S120B进行正弦标定的过程中产生的响应波形限幅问题,分析了数据采集器?地震计这一系统的标定过程及原理,结合GL?S120B的幅频响应特征,推导出正弦标定频点参数中的频率f、衰减因子λ与标定响应波形限幅之间的关系。分析表明,在GL?S120B平坦响应频带内,为避免出现标定波形响应限幅,频率f与衰减因子λ的乘积应至少大于限幅下限50.93;而在其衰减响应频带内,由于地震计电压灵敏度的衰减,频率f与衰减因子λ的乘积最小取值也相应减小。据此,对衰减因子λ进行校正,并再次对GL?S120B进行正弦标定。标定及计算结果显示:标定波形未限幅,GL?S120B三分向幅频响应特征较为一致;灵敏度对出厂值的变化率保持在5%范围内。本研究结论可为采用EDAS?24GN6和GL?S120B地震观测系统的台站进行正弦波标定提供频点参数,并为其他台站解决正弦标定波形限幅问题提供分析依据。     

Study on the Global Carbon Assimilation System Based on Multisource Remote Sensing Data

The Paris agreement signed in April, 2016 aims to balance global anthropogenic carbon emissions and terrestrial carbon sinks by the middle of the 21^st century. To fulfill this goal, it is necessary to calculate carbon fluxes of different regions reliably. The global carbon assimilation system is an effective technique for achieving this goal. The Ministry of Science and Technology of China supports the project entitled as study on the global carbon assimilation system based on multisource remote sensing data through the national key research and development programs for global change and adaptation during the thirteen-five period. This project will develop synergic inversion techniques for retrieving key parameters of biological and atmospheric cycles and for assimilating multisource remote sensing and ground based data. Then, the high resolution global carbon assimilation system coupled with an ecological model will be constructed. This system is able to assimilate jointly multisource observation data and to optimize key model parameters, photosynthesis and respiration carbon fluxes of global terrestrial ecosystems, and anthropogenic carbon emission fluxes of key regions. This system will be used to study quantitatively the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes of global terrestrial ecosystems and anthropogenic carbon emission fluxes of key regions and to identify the mechanisms driving the global terrestrial carbon sinks and sources. The outputs of this study will be helpful for the fulfillment of the key research and development programs for global change and adaptation and provide valuable data and technical support for the decision-making in China.     

四川省万县市滑坡群灾害灾情评估

地质灾害的全部过程可以概括为灾前孕育阶段、灾害活动阶段和灾后恢复阶段等三个阶段。对地质灾害灾情评估应包括对灾害灾情进行系统调查、统计、分析和评价等项工作,评估的重点是整个地质灾害形成过程中的灾害活动情况。本文以四川省万县市为例,在论述地质灾害灾情评估理论的基础上,对万县市的地质灾害～滑坡群进行了灾情的评估。     

含硫酸废水处理利用的实验研究

实验研究了含高浓度硫酸废水的一种资源化利用方法─—与废铁屑反应生成化工原料七水硫酸亚铁。给出了酸浓度、反应时间、反应温度、剩余酸等各种因素对产品产量的影响。提供了处理工艺,并且把自制品与分析纯试剂及理论计算值进行了比较,三者基本在同一质量水平上。     

Application on Floor Water Inrush Evaluation Based on AHP Variation Coefficient Method with GIS

The prediction and prevention of floor water inrush is directly related to the safety of the coal mine production. The previous evaluation method of floor water inrush was more one-sided and lacked main control factors related to mining conditions. In order to evaluate the floor water inrush more accurately, under the project background of geological data of Wanglou coal mine, stope width, mining depth, fault scale index, water pressure, water abundance and thickness of aquifer were selected as main controlling factors of floor water inrush. Combined with the subjective weight analytical hierarchy process and the objective weight variation coefficient method, the weight coefficients corresponding to the main controlling factors were obtained respectively. The thematic map of the risk assessment of coal seam floor water inrush was drawn by combining the constructed comprehensive weight vulnerability index model and geographic information system. The results show that: ① according to the actual geological data of mine, two fault related factors were removed. And stope width and mining depth were increased as the main controlling factors to evaluate floor water inrush. It is easier to compare and calculate the weight of evaluation factors. ② The constructed comprehensive weight vulnerability index model can comprehensively evaluate the risk of floor water inrush. And the results of the evaluation are more accurate. ③ The related thematic maps can directly reflect the risk of floor water inrush, which is of guiding significance for the prediction and prevention of coal seam floor water inrush.     

不同氧化还原条件下铅锌矿尾砂中重金属元素活化迁移规律

以广西大厂镇鲁塘铅锌矿尾砂为研究对象,通过淋滤实验研究了不同氧化还原条件下尾砂中Cu、Cd、Zn、Pb和As等元素的活化和迁移规律。结果表明：经高浓度氧化、高浓度还原条件处理的尾矿表现为pH<7的酸性环境,经低浓度氧化环境条件处理的尾砂呈现pH>7的弱酸性至弱碱性环境;尾砂中Cu、Cd元素活化迁移受pH值的影响明显,即高浓度还原和高浓度氧化条件可以促进Cu和Cd元素的迁移,酸性条件对Cu和Cd元素的迁移起到促进作用;Zn与Cd元素存在竞争吸附关系,但二者仍有明显差别;Pb和As元素受到还原条件的影响,能有效促进Pb和As元素的释放迁移。在淋滤实验前期,铅锌矿的表面阻力较小,由于环境酸碱性的改变,初始尾砂对重金属元素的吸附位能发生变化,重金属元素初期迁移能力得到加强;淋滤后期,矿物颗粒表面由于发生氧化还原反应,促使颗粒表面的阻力增加,重金属元素的溶出量减少,迁移能力受到抑制。     

Identifying spatio-temporal variation and controlling factors of chemistry in groundwater and river water recharged by reclaimed water at Huai River,North China

Reclaimed water is efficiently used to recover the dry river, but river water and groundwater may be impacted considering the water quality. Thus, it is critical to study the factors controlling water chemistry. Samples of reclaimed water, river and groundwater were collected monthly from January to September in 2010, in Huai River (North China). And samples were analyzed for major 15 physio-chemical parameters. Using hierarchical cluster analysis, 9 months are divided into two distinct groups, which show the clear temporal variation. In reclaimed water and river water, one group includes February, while the other includes other months. In shallow and deep groundwater, one group includes months from January to April, while the other encompasses others. Monitoring stations are classified into three groups. Group A with high value of ions and nitrogen (order: NH₄-N > NO₃-N > NO₂-N) includes reclaimed water and river water. Group B with moderate concentration and nitrogen (order: NO₃-N > NH₄-N > NO₂-N) includes all shallow groundwater and one deep groundwater. Group C with the low value and nitrogen (order: NO₃-N > NO₂-N > NH₄-N), includes two deep groundwater. Using multivariate analysis and ionic relationships, river water chemistry is found to be controlled by reclaimed water and evaporation process; chemistry in shallow groundwater and one deep groundwater, with type of Na–Ca(Mg)–HCO₃–Cl, is controlled by dissolution of calcite, carbonate weathering. Additionally, reactions of nitrification, denitrification and cation exchange occur in the infiltration of reclaimed water; chemistry in the other deep groundwater, with type of Ca–Mg–HCO₃–Cl, is controlled by dissolution of calcite, carbonate weathering and denitrification.     

确定连续系统参数的时域方法

提出一种确定连续系统参数的时域方法。该方法利用方波输入和系统稳定性，离析出输出采样信号与结构参数的内在联系，推导出确定连续系统结构参数的算法．指出该算法与辨识方法相结合，可实现对含随机干扰的连续系统结构参数的估计．