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131.
Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals 总被引:1,自引:3,他引:1
Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper
tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular,
the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high
and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists
of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε
max) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether
a physical basis for choosing ε
max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion
models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of
causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible
to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain
direct physical constraints on ε
max. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice
of ε
max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated
with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε
max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore,
the absolute truncation level implied by ε
max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε
max value impractical. 相似文献
132.
133.
The Gray Fossil Site (GFS) includes a small (<2 ha) paleosinkhole lake fill with an exceptionally well-preserved record of
sedimentation and fossils from the latest Miocene to earliest Pliocene. The uppermost lacustrine stratigraphy is characterized
by rhythmites that regularly alternate between coarse-grained and organic-rich (A) laminae and fine-grained, silty clay (B)
laminae. Both the A and B components are almost exclusively comprised of exogenic sediment (including organic matter). Periodicities
of 24 and 4.4 are recorded within a continuous 96 interpreted year sequence of rhythmite sediment. In a small lake with a
poorly oxygenated bottom, the presence of laterally continuous laminated sediment that includes well-known periodicities in
rhythmite thickness is interpreted as representing annually generated varves that correspond to seasonal variations in sedimentation.
The distinctly larger fraction of medium sand-size quartz grains present within the A laminae, as well as the abrupt transitions
between A and B components suggest that the rhythmites represent deposition during alternating high-energy and lower-energy
seasons, which is consistent with a monsoonal precipitation pattern. The seasonal climate may relate to changes in the ocean
circulation pattern prior to 4.6 Ma that resulted in an increased temperature and atmospheric pressure gradient between the
east coast of North America and the Atlantic Ocean, but this climate phase seems to be only a temporary condition, as underlying
and overlying sediment are both consistent with drier conditions. The periodicity at 24 interpreted years is consistent with
the well-known Hale solar cycle. The 4.4 interpreted-year periodicity occurs within the ENSO frequency band, and if this documentation
of ENSO-like interannual climate change is correct, then it suggests that ENSO operated at times during the warm Earth conditions
characterizing the late Tertiary. 相似文献
134.
Epiphytic diatoms as flood indicators 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Johan A. Wiklund Natalie Bozinovski Roland I. Hall Brent B. Wolfe 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2010,44(1):25-42
The hydroecology of floodplain lakes is strongly regulated by flood events. The threat of climate warming and increasing human
activities requires development of scientific methods to quantify changes in the frequency of short-lived flood events, because
they remain difficult to identify using conventional paleolimnological and monitoring approaches. We developed an approach
to detect floods in sediment records by comparing the abundance and composition of epiphytic diatom communities in flooded
and non-flooded ponds of the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD), Canada, that grew on submerged macrophytes (Potamogeton zosteriformis, P.
perfoliatus) and an artificial substrate (polypropylene sheets) during the open-water season of 2005. Analysis of similarity tests showed
that epiphytic diatom community composition differs significantly between flooded and non-flooded ponds. After accounting
for the “pond effect,” paired comparisons of the three substrates determined that variation in community composition between
the artificial substrate and macrophytes was similar to that between the macrophyte taxa. Similarity percentage analysis identified
diatom taxa that discriminate between flooded and non-flooded ponds. The relative abundance of ‘strong flood indicator taxa’
was used to construct an event-scale flood record spanning the past 180 years using analyses of sedimentary diatom assemblages
from a closed-drainage pond (PAD 5). Results were verified by close agreement with an independent paleoflood record from a
nearby flood-prone oxbow pond (PAD 54) and historical records. Comparison of epiphytic diatoms in flooded and non-flooded
lakes in this study provides a promising approach to detect changes in flood frequency, and may have applications for reconstructing
other pulse-type disturbances such as hurricanes and pollutant spills. 相似文献
135.
The Geology and Petroleum Resources of Kansas: A Review From Alpha to Omega or From the Pleistocene to the Precambrian 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Daniel F. Merriam 《Natural Resources Research》2010,19(4):293-316
The geological story of Kansas is told through the rocks that are present. It is a simple story in generalities but complex
in detail. Knowing the story, gives insight into understanding the occurrence and location of possible economic valuable minerals,
such as petroleum. This is a brief review of Kansas geology with respect to the known occurrence of oil and gas. Kansas is
part of the Midcontinent oil province with oil having been discovered 150 years ago and commercial production commencing in
1873. Although many prospects remain in Kansas, the state has gone from the number 1 producer in the U.S. in 1916 to 8th today.
Exploration for new oil and gas production therefore is going to have to be more imaginative and utilize new approaches and
techniques to find the elusive petroleum. There are possibilities however for the prospector who can search diligently. Although
the big fields probably have been discovered, the prospects today are deeper, in more undetectable traps, and in essentially
untested places. 相似文献
136.
Sofia U. Holmgren Christian Bigler Ólafur Ingólfsson Alexander P. Wolfe 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2010,43(2):393-412
Lake sediments from four small lakes on western Spitsbergen (Svalbard Archipelago, Norwegian High Arctic) preserve biostratigraphic and isotopic evidence for a complex suite of twentieth century environmental changes. At Lake Skardtjørna and Lake Tjørnskardet on Nordenskiöldkysten, there is a marked diatom floristic change coupled to increased diatom concentrations beginning around 1920. At Lake Istjørna and Lake Istjørnelva, 25 km southwest of Longyearbyen, both diatom total valve and chrysophyte stomatocyst concentrations have increased dramatically since the beginning of the 1900s. The early twentieth century changes are probably related to climate warming after the Little Ice Age. However, the most pronounced changes in diatom assemblages seem to have occurred in the last few decades. At the same time, nitrogen stable isotopes in sediment organic matter in two of the lakes became progressively depleted by ~2‰, which is consistent with diffuse atmospheric inputs from anthropogenic sources and attendant fertilization. These data suggest that climate change and nitrogen deposition may be acting together in driving these lakes towards new ecological states that are unique in the context of the Holocene. 相似文献
137.
A late Pleistocene and Holocene mineral magnetic record from sediments of Lake Aibi,Dzungarian Basin,NW China 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Alina Tudryn Piotr Tucholka Elisabeth Gibert Francoise Gasse Keiquin Wei 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2010,44(1):109-121
We studied mineral magnetic properties of a 6-m-long, late Pleistocene through Holocene sediment sequence from Lake Aibi in
Dzungaria (Zunggary, Junggar), northern Xinjiang, China. Results were used to infer environmental changes and are compared
with previously studied cores from Lake Manas. Both water bodies occupy the deepest parts of the Dzungarian Basin and are
remnants of large Holocene lakes. During the Late Pleistocene, the magnetic mineralogy in both lakes was dominated by detrital,
iron oxide minerals. Oxic conditions, which dominated during sedimentation and early diagenesis, persisted over the Pleistocene–Holocene
transition. Later, during the middle Holocene, lake bottom conditions enabled authigenic formation of iron sulphide minerals
such as pyrite (FeS2) in Lake Aibi, and pyrite and greigite (Fe3S4) in Lake Manas. This iron sulphide mineralogy suggests increased biological activity in stagnant, anoxic bottom waters. Anoxic
bottom conditions started about 9.8 cal kyr BP in Lake Manas and at about 7.2 cal kyr BP in Lake Aibi. A short dry event recorded
in Lake Manas between 6.8 and 5.2 cal kyr BP is not clearly observed in Lake Aibi. In the late Holocene, i.e. the last 2.8 cal
kyr, sediments of both lakes are again characterised by iron oxides, suggesting well-mixed, shallow water bodies. For this
recent period, it seems that the detrital material in the two lakes had a common origin. Magnetic properties of sediments
in Lakes Aibi and Manas show broadly similar environmental evolution during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Nevertheless,
despite the close proximity of the two lakes (~200 km) in the same basin, they display some different magnetic properties
and record environmental changes at different times. 相似文献
138.
139.
G. Nishani Musafer M. Helen Thompson E. Kozan R. C. Wolff 《Natural Resources Research》2017,26(2):223-236
A real-world mining application of pair-copulas is presented to model the spatial distribution of metal grade in an ore body. Inaccurate estimation of metal grade in an ore reserve can lead to failure of a mining project. Conventional kriged models are the most commonly used models for estimating grade and other spatial variables. However, kriged models use the variogram or covariance function, which produces a single average value to represent the spatial dependence for a given distance. Kriged models also assume linear spatial dependence. In the application, spatial pair-copulas are used to appropriately model the non-linear spatial dependence present in the data. The spatial pair-copula model is adopted over other copula-based spatial models since it is better able to capture complex spatial dependence structures. The performance of the pair-copula model is shown to be favorable compared to a conventional lognormal kriged model. 相似文献
140.
This paper presents mineral prospectivity mapping to identify potential new exploration ground for polymetallic Sn–F–REE mineralization associated with the Bushveld granites of the Bushveld Igneous Complex, South Africa. The Lebowa Granite Suite, commonly known as the Bushveld granites, is host to a continuum of polymetallic mineralization with a wide range of metal assemblages (Sn–Mo–W–Cu–Pb–Zn–As–Au–Ag–Fe–F–U–REE), ranging from a high-temperature to a low-temperature magmatic hydrothermal mineralizing environment. The prospectivity map was generated by fuzzy logic modeling and a selection of targeting criteria (or spatial proxies) based on a conceptual mineral system highlighting critical processes responsible for the formation of the polymetallic mineralization. The spatial proxies include proximity to differentiated granites (as heat and metal-rich fluid sources), Rb geochemical map (fluid-focusing mechanism such as fractionation process), principal component maps (PC 4 Y–Th and PC 14 Sn–W, fluid pathways for both high- and low-temperature mineralization) and proximity to roof rocks (traps for fluids). Logarithmic functions were used to rescale rasterized evidential maps into continuous fuzzy membership scores in a range of [0, 1]. The evidential maps were combined in two-staged integration matrix using fuzzy AND, OR and gamma operators to produce the granite-related polymetallic Sn–F–(REE) prospectivity map. The conceptual mineral system model and corresponding prospectivity model developed in this study yielded an encouraging result by delineating the known mineral deposits and occurrences of Sn–F–(REE) mineralization that were not used to assign weights to the evidential maps. The prospectivity model predicted, on average, 77% of the known mineral occurrences in the BIC (i.e., 56 of 73 Sn occurrences, 12 of 15 F occurrences and 6 of 8 REE occurrences). Based on this validation, 13 new targets were outlined in this study. 相似文献