变暖背景下陕西极端气候事件变化分析

利用1961-2010年陕西省78个气象观测站的逐日最高温度、最低温度、平均温度以及日降水量资料,采用趋势分析方法对该地区极端气候事件的变化进行了分析。结果表明:①近50 a来陕西降水极端事件没有显著的增减变化趋势,但存在明显的阶段性。②近50 a来区域严重干燥事件在显著增加而严重湿润事件趋于减少,2000年以后严重干湿事件均偏多,区域降水有向不均衡、极端化发展的趋势。③区域年极端高（低）温事件在近50 a来呈现显著的增加（减少）趋势,其空间分布具有较好的一致性。极端温度事件的变化在各季节存在差异,冬、春季变暖的趋势比较显著。在显著变暖的20世纪90年代以后,相对于降水极端事件,温度极端事件显现地更为突出。     

景观格局与生态过程相互关系研究进展

景观格局的形成反映了不同的景观生态过程,与此同时景观格局又在一定程度上影响着景观的演变过程。 空间格局、生态过程与尺度之间的相互关系是景观生态学研究的核心内容。本文对景观格局与生态过程的研究方 法、景观格局与生态过程相互关系等方面的国内外研究进展进行了综述。最后分析了目前景观格局与生态过程相 互关系研究中存在的问题与不足、未来的研究热点及发展趋势。     

Heterogeneous strain regime in the eastern margin of Tibetan Plateau and its tectonic implications

The eastern margin of Tibetan Plateau is one of the most active zones of tectonic deformation and seismicity in China. To monitor strain buildup and benefit seismic risk assessment, we constructed 14 survey-mode global position system(GPS) stations throughout the northwest of Longmenshan fault. A new GPS field over 1999–2011 is derived from measurements of the newly built and pre-existing stations in this region. Sequentially,two strain rate fields, one preceding and the other following the 2008 MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, are obtained using the Gausian weighting approach. Strain field over1999–2007 shows distinct strain partitioning prior to the2008 MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, with compression spreading over around Longmenshan area. Strain field derived from the two measurements in 2009 and 2011 shows that the area around Longmenshan continues to be under striking compression, as the pattern preceding the Wenchuan earthquake, implying a causative factor of the sequent of 2013 MW6.7 Lushan earthquake. Our GPSderived dilatation shows that both the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes occurred within the domain of pronounced contraction. The GPS velocities demonstrate that the Longriba fault underwent slight motion with the faultnormal and-parallel rates at 1.0 ± 2.5 mm and 0.3 ± 2.2 mm/a; the Longmenshan fault displayed slow activity, with a fault-normal rate at 0.8 ± 2.5 mm/a, and a fault-parallel rate at 1.8 ± 1.7 mm/a. Longriba fault is on a par with Longmenshan fault in strain partitioning to accommodate the southeastward motion of eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Integrated analysis of principal strain tensors, mean principal stress, and fast directions of mantle anisotropy shows that west of Sichuan is characterized as mechanically strong crust-mantle coupling.     

山东西南部南四湖水位变化特征及其与气候要素的相关分析

气候变化对水资源的影响是水文领域的一个重要的研究方向, 研究水位变化与气候要素的相关分析, 对预测湖面水位意义重大. 利用1981-2013年山东西南部南四湖水位和沿湖5个国家级气象观测站逐月平均气温、 相对湿度、 风速、 降水和蒸发量等资料, 分析了近33 a来南四湖水位变化特征及气象影响因子. 结果表明: 近33 a南四湖水位升高趋势显著, 平均每10 a升高0.46 m; 水位变化整体分两个阶段, 1989年以前为下降态势, 1989年以后为上升态势, 1994年是水位升高的突变时间点; 平均最高水位出现在3月为33.04 m, 最低出现在12月为32.03 m. 各气象要素对南四湖水位的影响呈明显的季节性, 降水量是影响年水位变化的重要气象因子, 年降水量每增加100 mm, 水位升高0.21 m, 夏季降水量对水位的影响更为显著; 蒸发量在夏、 秋季与水位呈极显著负相关; 水位在夏季与风速、 在冬季与相对湿度均呈显著负相关.     

近5年国际地球科学领域发展态势文献计量分析

本文基于Web of Science平台,以SCI-E数据库2012~2016年地球科学领域各年度居前10%的高被引论文为统计分析源,从国际地球科学研究论文的总体概况、研究的主要国家和机构、研究热点等方面对近年来地球科学发展态势进行文献计量分析,旨在为相关管理部门了解地球科学研究发展态势提供参考。     

土壤地球化学测量在印尼某铜铅锌多金属矿区的应用

通过东南亚—西太平洋多岛地区的热带雨林特殊景观土壤的地球化学测量工作,圈定了12个Cu-Pb-Zn-Ag组合异常,其中6个异常工程验证见矿,扩大了矿体。12个异常中,Ⅰ-1号异常面金属量占全区总面金属量的62.48%,NAP评序值远远大于其他异常,异常元素达13个,是研究区浓集与矿化中心。研究表明,在热带雨林特殊景观地区,土壤地球化学测量与岩石地球化学测量相结合能有效地指导多金属矿床找矿。     

参考框架选取对连续GPS网测站坐标时间序列分析结果的影响

针对中国大陆构造环境监测网络（CMONOC）坐标时间序列分析,研究选取3种不同空间尺度的参考框架以及考虑不同相似转换参数对测站速度场、年周期项及残差时间序列的影响。结果表明,对于中国大陆这样大范围、长时间连续观测的GPS网,采用全球框架坐标时间序列分析结果更加稳定,对转换参数选择不太敏感;但采用区域框架,特别是接近研究区域的小区域框架能够反映出更显著的区域形变特征,对于进一步研究其动力学机制是有利的。     

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Running safety analysis of a train on the Tsing Ma Bridge under turbulent winds

The dynamic responses of the Tsing Ma suspension bridge and the running behaviors of trains on the bridge under turbulent wind actions are analyzed by a three-dimensional wind-train-bridge interaction model. This model consists of a spatial finite element bridge model, a train model composed of eight 4-axle identical coaches of 27 degrees-of-freedom, and a turbulent wind model. The fluctuating wind forces, including the buffeting forces and the self-excited forces, act on the bridge only, since the train runs inside the bridge deck. The dynamic responses of the bridge are calculated and some results are compared with data measured from Typhoon York. The runnability of the train passing through the Tsing Ma suspension bridge at different speeds is researched under turbulent winds with different wind velocities. Then, the threshold curve of wind velocity for ensuring the running safety of the train in the bridge deck is proposed, from which the allowable train speed at different wind velocities can be determined. The numerical results show that rail traffic on the Tsing Ma suspension bridge should be closed as the mean wind velocity reaches 30 m/s.     

用ECRS方法对郯庐断裂带中南段地震的跟踪研究

基于地震学多参数的地震对应概率谱(ECRS)方法及此前研究成果,对郯庐断裂带中段和南段(中南段)至2015年9月份的地震异常特征进行了跟踪研究。时间跟踪研究结果表明,目标地震均在震前出现多参数的综合高值异常,且目前其综合指数处于异常上升状态。空间跟踪研究结果同样显示,研究区目标地震发生前大多有高值异常出现并逐渐增强,地震多发生在异常区域内或者附近。