Comparison of two fading filters and adaptively robust filter

Two kinds of fading filters and their principles are introduced. An adaptive robust filter is given with corresponding principle. The basic abilities of the fading filters and adaptively robust filter in controlling the influences of the kinematic model errors are analyzed. A practical example is given. The results of the fading filter and adaptively robust filter are compared and analyzed.     

Statistical downscaling of extremes of precipitation and temperature and construction of their future scenarios in an elevated and cold zone

Reliable projections of extremes at finer spatial scales are important in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on societal and natural systems, particularly for elevated and cold regions in the Tibetan Plateau. This paper presents future projections of extremes of daily precipitation and temperature, under different future scenarios in the headwater catchment of Yellow River basin over the 21st century, using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM). The results indicate that: (1) although the mean temperature was simulated perfectly, followed by monthly pan evaporation, the skill scores in simulating extreme indices of precipitation are inadequate; (2) The inter-annual variabilities for most extreme indices were underestimated, although the model could reproduce the extreme temperatures well. In fact, the simulation of extreme indices for precipitation and evaporation were not satisfactory in many cases. (3) In future period from 2011 to 2100, increases in the temperature and evaporation indices are projected under a range of climate scenarios, although decreasing mean and maximum precipitation are found in summer during 2020s. The findings of this work will contribute toward a better understanding of future climate changes for this unique region.     

华南局地锋生及对流系统发展的模拟分析研究

2009年3月28日一条东西向的锋面出现在华南25°N附近。伴随着锋面的活动,对流降水回波午后开始在广西的梧州附近发展,并在随后几小时向东移动,组织发展成为中尺度对流系统(MCS),为广东中西部及珠三角地区带来了雷暴、暴雨、冰雹等灾害天气。应用地面自动站、雷达回波、卫星云图以及NCEP-FNL再分析资料和WRF模式的模拟结果,对锋面暴雨形成的天气特征进行了诊断分析,考察了中尺度对流系统的发展演变过程及其与局地锋生的相互关系。结果表明,锋面对流系统形成发展于一个东西向水平尺度约200km的地面中尺度辐合线附近,对流起始发展于具有较大对流有效位能(CAPE)和较小对流抑制位能(CIN)的区域。伴随着对流的发展,锋面强度增强。锋生函数的计算发现,非绝热项和倾斜项分别在由对流引起的次级环流的上升运动支和下沉运动支起锋生作用,是引发中尺度锋生的主要影响因子。而相对来说,水平辐合项和形变项的作用却比较小。这与大尺度的锋生过程不同,中尺度锋生更主要的是由热力直接触发的非地转环流所驱动。涡度场的演变分析还发现,沿着850hPa锋区大的正涡度区与500hPa的强上升运动区对应良好,对流系统发展与中尺度锋生之间存在着类似于第二条件不稳定机制的相互作用,对流增强了锋生过程,锋面则对中尺度对流系统的发展起组织作用。中尺度锋生对对流组织发展的作用作为此类灾害天气形成的原因值得关注。     

非正态分布假设下的完好性阈值计算与分析

引入"概率包络"概念,从分析复杂多路径误差的概率分布入手,推导了两种非高斯分布的多路径误差概率分布模型,改进了两种基于污染正态分布的完好性阈值计算方法,并分别在伪距域和定位域对非高斯误差分布模型进行高斯概率包络分析,计算相应的均方差膨胀因子,从理论上体现了完好性阈值计算方法的严密性和有效性。仿真计算结果表明,两种改进的完好性阈值计算结果都能够对污染正态分布误差模型实现高斯概率包络,但第一种改进方法计算结果相对比较保守,第二种改进方法计算结果更加优化。     

Transmutation of ancient settlements and environmental changes between 6000-2000 aBP in the Chaohu Lake Basin,East China

Based on the temporal-spatial distribution features of ancient settlement sites from the middle and Iate Neolithic Age to the Han dynasty in the Chaohu Lake Basin of Anhui Province,East China.using the methods of GIS combined with the reconstructed paleoenvironment by the records of lake sediment since Holocene,the transmutation of ancient sottlements with response to environmental changes in this area has been discussed.Studies show that the main feature of transmutation of ancient settlements from the middle and Iate Neolithic Age to the Han Dynasty was that the distribution of settlements In this area changed from high altitudes to Iow ones and kept approaching the Chaohu Lake with the passage of time.These could be the response to the climate change from warm-moist to a relatively warm-dry condition during the middle Holocene.leading to the lake level fluctuations.The large area of exposed land provided enough space for human activities.These indicate that the above changes in geomorphologic evolution and hydrology influenced by climate cenditions affected the transmutation of ancient settlements greatly.The distribution pattern of settlement sites was that the number of sites in the west was more than in the east.This pattern may be related to the geomorphologic conditions such as frequent channel shifting of the Yangtze River as well as flood disasters during the Holocene optimum.Therefore,climate change was the inducement of the transmutation of ancient settlements in the Chaohu Lake Basin,which exerted great influence on the distribution,expansion and development of the ancient settlements.     

孤岛油田南区东部曲流河沉积结构单元分析

曲流河储层是我国石油资源的重要载体,但是目前研究主要还停留在微相级别,叠置点坝的划分对比研究还稍显薄弱。研究利用“层次分析”方法,通过分析河道砂体顶面高程差、出现不连续河间砂体、过井地震剖面的波形差异、平面上的砂体厚度差异等四个方面,有效地在复合河道中划分出单一河道。通过对砂体垂向沉积层序、砂体厚度分布及废弃河道位置的分析可以识别出点坝沉积;利用“砂顶泥岩厚度法”可以快速识别地下废弃河道,确定点坝沉积的边界;根据Leeder计算河流满岸宽度经验公式及点坝长度与河流满岸宽度的相关公式可以确定点坝沉积的规模。     

BDA方案对台风背景高温天气预报的改进

广州地Ⅸ的高温天气主要是受副热带高压和台风外围下沉气流的影响所致.文中采用BDA(Bogus Data Assimila-tion)方法,探讨BDA方案对广州地区台风背景条件下高温预报的改进能力.选取2005年7月中旬广州地区出现的高温天气进行研究.这是比较典型的受副热带高压和台风(海棠)共同影响造成高温的天气过程.分析有无采用BDA方案的模式初始场.结果表明:采用BDA方案同化Bogus模型可以调整台风中心位置和强度,使所得到的初始场中心位置与观测更为接近,台风强度(气压梯度力、风速)比末用Bogus的情况强,与观测值更为接近.数值模拟的结果表明,采用了BDA方案的敏感试验可以更好地预撤台风路径和台风中心强度变化,从而更好地预报高温天气,对高温区分布、日平均温度大小等的预报都有改进.文中对引起这种预报差异的原因进行了讨论,并探讨高温预报改进的可能机制.大气下沉运动的增强是高温预报改进的主要原因.敏感试验由于广州中低层大气的水汽减少,大气的下沉增强,致使天空的云量减少,对太阳短波辐射的阻挡减小,从而地面吸收热量增多,温度升高,输送给大气的感热增加,大气气温升高.采用BDA方案可以改进模式在台风"海棠"过程对广州高温的预报.     

滇西兰坪盆地构造体制和成矿背景分析

大规模成矿作用的地质构造背景是国内外矿床学界普遍关注的重大问题。文章从盆地整体着眼，从盆地构造－沉积－岩浆－变质作用过程着手，通过盆地内地质、地球物理和遥感等事实分析了滇西兰坪盆地的构造体制和成矿背景。兰坪盆地在古特提斯构造基础上发展起来，近南北向盆缘超岩石圈断裂和盆中央穿壳断裂及近东西向隐伏构造共同控制了盆地的动力过程，中－新生代经历了印支期裂谷、燕山期拗陷及喜马拉雅期走滑拉分的性质演变。受印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞制约，板内构造体制下的深大断裂和岩浆活动、幔流上涌、地层中不整合及壳幔相互作用等所体现的大陆地壳强烈运动是兰坪盆地的成矿基本地质背景。推测兰坪盆地具有大规模有效沟通地幔的盆地动力学体制。     

适应水文非一致条件的水库防洪优化调度

为完善变化环境下水库防洪调度方案,建立了集水文非一致性诊断、水文模型还现、设计洪水计算与水库调度规则优化于一体的水库适应性调控方法体系,并应用于沂沭泗水系仕阳水库.结果表明,仕阳水库入库洪水变异点发生在1975年;利用新安江模型对水文序列还现处理,得到满足一致性的设计洪水,其洪峰、最大24 h和最大72 h洪量均值,较原设计分别增大了 19.7%、14.5%和10.0%;建立了以防洪效益最大为目标函数的水库优化调度模型,采用动态规划进行求解.提出的适应性调度方案在20年、100年、1000年和5000年一遇设计洪水条件下,较水库现行设计方案最高洪水位分别降低了0.32、0.11、0.19和0.11 m.     

珠江三角洲及其邻近海域第四纪地质与地震危险性

从第四纪地质研究的角度分析了珠江三角洲地区的地震危险性,认为北东,近东西和北西向三组断裂带把整个珠江三角洲断陷分割成７个次一级断块,并根据控制各次级断块的断裂第四纪活动性的强弱。