Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

Chemical forms of heavy metal contaminants in sediments of Miyun reservoir

The chemical forms, spatial distribution and sources of As, Hg, Cd, Pb and Zn in sediments of the Miyun reservoir were studied. The results of sequential extraction demonstrate that most of As, Pb and Zn were bound to the residual fraction, Hg was associated with the sulfide fraction while Cd was associated with the carbonate fraction and the residual fraction. On the vertical profiles the concentrations of the heavy metals in total and each fractions mostly decreased with increasing depths in sediments, suggesting that the heavy metals input from the upstream watershed increases yearly. Summation of the residual fraction, the sulfide fraction and the carbonate fraction accounts for 60.03%―85.60% of the total heavy metal contents in the sediments, which represent the geochemical background values of the elements and relate closely to soil erosion. Results of the main factor analysis show that most sediments of the reservoir come from the upstream soil erosion, the point source pollution and domestic waste. Moreover, the microbial activities taking place on the sediment-water interface are also one of the major factors to cause the increasing content of the organic matter fraction and the iron-manganese oxide fraction. Environmental change of the reservoir water could make the removability of the heavy metals increase, leading to the increase of their concentrations in pore water in sediments, and imperiling water quality of the reservoir.     

GIS支持下的小城镇土地定级--以福建省天宝镇区为例

小城镇土地定级是小城镇土地管理的基础性工作,以福建省天宝镇区土地定级为例,就地理信息系统技术在城镇土地定级中的应用进行了探讨。着重论述了GIS环境下土地定级基础图件库和基础属性数据库的建立、评价单元的生成、单元分值和单元总分值的计算及成果图的生成等属性数据和空间数据的处理过程。     

基于SHAP值机器学习的江西暖季暴雨预报因子重要性分析

机器学习模型（Machine Learning,ML）的不可解释性给其在气象业务中的应用带来了挑战。模型解释和可视化是解决这一问题的有效途径。文中将SHAP值应用于天气预报ML模型解释,研究了江西省暖季暴雨模型的预报因子对预报结果的影响。分别选取2016—2020年、2021—2022年4—9月ECWMF（European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts）高分辨率数值模式物理量及国家站降水观测数据进行XGBoost 建模与模型解释。结果表明,全局重要性排名前4位依次是总降水（重要性42.70%）、850 hPa比湿（重要性11.17%）、925 hPa相对湿度（重要性10.44%）、500 hPa相对湿度（重要性 9.16%）。个例分析表明,命中个例中高重要性物理因子在暴雨区的 SHAP 值较大,漏报（空报）个例在漏报（空报）区域高重要性物理因子的SHAP值偏小（偏大）。SHAP值从全局和局部可定量给出ML模型有物理意义的解释,解释结果与天气学原理和业务经验较一致,有利于ML在气象业务中的深入应用。     

中国主要红树林表层沉积物中重金属的分布特征及其影响因素

红树林生态系统处于海洋与陆地的动态交界面,遭受海水周期性浸淹,因而在结构与功能上具有既不同于陆地生态系统,也不同于海洋生态系统的特性。红树林作为初级生产者,为林区动物、微生物提供食物与营养,为鸟类、昆虫、鱼虾等提供栖息、繁衍场所。因此,红树植物对维护生态平衡、保护海岸生态系统起着重要的作用[1-2]。近年来由于工农业的发展,沿海城市人口与经济的增长,大量的污染物汇集于河口、海湾区,使这些地区的重金属污染日趋严重,特别是在直接向红树林区倾污排废的地区更是如此。     

GPS水准移动曲面法功能新探

在简要分析了GPS水准拟合几种主要方法优缺点的基础上,重点探讨了移动曲面法和顾及似大地水准面模型的改进移动曲面法的特殊优点,指出了GPS水准拟合今后有待进一步研究的内容。     

天然气水合物准三维地震勘探电缆动态定位精度研究

在我国某海域对天然气水合物研究过程中,使用了单源单缆准三维地震勘探方法,获得了较好的天然气水合物矿体三维成像效果.影响天然气水合物矿体三维成像的因素很多,其中,电缆动态定位精度是最直接的影响因素之一.在大量试验数据的基础上,研究了罗盘对电缆动态定位精度的影响,研究结果与海试资料及国内外资料非常吻合,这对天然气水合物准三维调查具有一定的指导意义.根据该研究结果,在保证一定定位误差的前提下,最终确定了电缆的排列长度为2 400 m(192道),获得了较高的动态定位精度.2007年在该海域实施了钻探,国内首次发现了水合物样品.钻探结果与地震资料的吻合证实了准三维地震方法定位精度已达到较高的程度.     

内蒙古索伦山地区哈尔博格托尔TTG岩锆石年代学、岩石地球化学及大地构造意义

内蒙古索伦山地区是中亚造山带构造演化的关键区域,其中关于古亚洲洋的闭合时限以及西伯利亚板块和华北板块的拼贴时空关系一直存在争议。出露于内蒙古索伦山地区哈尔博格托尔的中酸性侵入岩,其深入研究对探讨古亚洲洋演化具有重要意义。文中对内蒙古索伦山地区哈尔博格托尔TTG岩进行了系统的岩石学、年代学及地球化学研究。获得哈尔博格托尔TTG岩的LA ICP MS锆石U Pb年龄为(266.7±3.7) Ma,表明该侵入岩形成于中二叠世。地球化学主量元素分析表明,索伦山地区哈尔博格托尔TTG岩的岩石系列主要为含钠较高的钙碱性准铝质系列。其稀土元素总量较低,呈现轻稀土元素(LREEs)相对于重稀土元素(HREEs)弱富集的特征,Eu异常不明显;微量元素呈现Rb、Ba、Th、U等大离子亲石元素富集,Nb、Ta、Ti等高场强元素强烈亏损的特征,与典型的岛弧岩浆岩类似。结合索伦山TTG岩体地质特征和区域地质背景,综合年代学和地球化学特征分析,笔者认为索伦山地区哈尔博格托尔TTG岩体形成于岛弧环境,即中二叠世期间古亚洲洋壳向华北板块还存在俯冲作用,因而古亚洲洋至少应在中二叠世以后才闭合。内蒙古索伦山地区哈尔博格托尔TTG岩是洋壳俯冲的岩石学记录,为索伦山缝合带及古亚洲洋构造域演化提供了新的基础地质资料。     

空间信息网格服务工作流模型及其应用

现有的空间信息网格应用系统缺乏对计算资源的有效组织及管理方法,无法满足复杂空间业务流程化建模及计算任务协同化处理的需求.从数据与功能相互分离的GIS软件架构角度出发,采用活动网络图的方法提出了一种以服务功能建模为基础的新型空间信息服务工作流模型,该模型通过服务功能的组装拆卸及动态聚合能够实现空间信息服务资源的灵活构建及动态迁移,较好地解决了网格环境下空间计算资源的统一组织与按需分配、计算任务的并行化处理等问题.在此基础上,建立了空间信息网格工作流集群的总体框架并讨论了系统的自动负载均衡及流程资源的动态调度机制.研究成果成功地应用于地质调查信息网格环境下的矿产资源储量测算系统,实现了网格环境下复杂空间应用的工作流处理模式,并有效地提高了业务系统的处理效率.     

安徽无为县蔚山地区铁铜矿地质特征及其发现意义

蔚山铁铜矿位于安徽省无为县,是近年庐枞矿集区发现的新类型矿床,矿体主要赋存在石炭系黄龙组、船山组透辉石矽卡岩中,呈层状产出,主要矿石矿物为黄铁矿、磁铁矿等,少量黄铜矿,脉石矿物主要为方解石、透辉石等,矿床成因为矽卡岩型铁矿。从目前施工钻孔分析,形成矽卡岩的侵入岩体主要为花岗斑岩,结合地磁异常推断深部可能有规模更大的岩体,因此区内存在寻找(层控)矽卡岩型铁(铜)矿的较大潜力。