统计降尺度方法在青海省冬季最低温度预测中的应用

利用2003-2007年国家气象中心T213L31全球中期数值预报模式逐日输出产品与青海地区25个气象站的观测数据作为试验资料, 利用相关系数和逐步回归进行因子选择, 并以单隐层神经网络和多元回归作为降尺度方法进行对比研究, 用2003-2006年间的11月1日～次年3月1日的资料作为训练样本, 以数值预报产品和前一日观测的最低温度作为因子, 建立青海省25个气候站的冬季最低温度的24, 48, 72 h预报模型, 并且以2006年12月和2007年的1、 2月作为24, 48, 72 h逐日最低温度预报试验时段。试验表明, 对于青海地区来说, 青海北部地区的预报命中率总体好于南部高原地区; 在4种对比方案中, 以选择数值预报资料结合前一日地面观测的最低温度作为主要因子的方法相对较优, 随着预报时效的延长, 24 h历史实况的作用逐渐减弱; 对于所有台站来说, 这4种方案各有优缺点, 没有一种方案可以完全代替其他所有方案; 在实际业务运行中, 对不同的台站应采用不同的预报方案进行实际业务预报。     

Vertical structures of PM10 and PM 2.5 and their dynamical character in low atmosphere in Beijing urban areas

The vertical structures and their dynamical character of PM2.5 and PM10 over Beijing urban areas are revealed using the 1 min mean continuous mass concentration data of PM2.5 and PM10 at 8, 100, and 320 m heights of the meteorological observation tower of 325 m at Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP CAS tower hereafter) on 10―26 August, 2003, as well as the daily mean mass concentration data of PM2.5 and PM10 and the continuous data of CO and NO2 at 8, 100 (low layer), 200 (middle layer), and 320 m (high layer) heights, in combination with the same period meteorological field observation data of the meteorological tower. The vertical distributions of aerosols observed on IAP CAS tower in Beijing can be roughly divided into two patterns: gradually and rapidly decreasing patterns, I.e. The vertical distribution of aerosols in calm weather or on pollution day belongs to the gradually decreasing pattern, while one on clean day or weak cold air day belongs to the rapidly decreasing pattern. The vertical distributive characters of aerosols were closely related with the dynamical/thermal structure and turbulence character of the atmosphere boundary layer. On the clean day, the low layer PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations were close to those at 8 m height, while the concentrations rapidly decreased at the high layer, and their values were only one half of those at 8 m, especially, the concentration of PM2.5 dropped even more. On the clean day, there existed stronger turbulence below 150 m, aerosols were well mixed, but blocked by the more stronger inversion layer aloft, and meanwhile, at various heights, especially in the high layer, the horizontal wind speed was larger, resulting in the rapid decrease of aerosol concentration, I.e. Resulting in the obvious vertical difference of aerosol concentrations between the low and high layers. On the pollution day, the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 at the low, middle, and high layers dropped successively by, on average, about 10% for each layer in comparison with those at 8 m height. On pollution days, in company with the low wind speed, there existed two shallow inversion layers in the boundary layer, but aerosols might be, to some extent, mixed below the inversion layer, therefore, on the pollution day the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 dropped with height slowly; and the observational results also show that the concentrations at 320 m height were obviously high under SW and SE winds, but at other heights, the concentrations were not correlated with wind directions. The computational results of footprint analysis suggest that this was due to the fact that the 320 m height was impacted by the pollutants transfer of southerly flow from the southern peripheral heavier polluted areas, such as Baoding, and Shijiazhuang of Hebei Province, Tianjin, and Shandong Province, etc., while the low layer was only affected by Beijing's local pollution source. The computational results of power spectra and periods preliminarily reveal that under the condition of calm weather, the periods of PM10 concentration at various heights of the tower were on the order of minutes, while in cases of larger wind speed, the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 at 320 m height not only had the short periods of minute-order, but also the longer periods of hour order. Consistent with the conclusion previously drawn by Ding et al., that air pollutants at different heights and at different sites in Beijing had the character of "in-phase" variation, was also observed for the diurnal variation and mean diurnal variation of PM2.5 and PM10 at various heights of the tower in this experiment, again confirming the "in-phase" temporal/spatial distributive character of air pollutants in the urban canopy of Beijing. The gentle double-peak character of the mean diurnal variation of PM2.5 and PM10 was closely related with the evident/similar diurnal variation of turbulent momentum fluxes, sensible heat fluxes, and turbulent kinetic energy at various heights in the urban canopy. Besides, under the condition of calm weather, the concentration of PM2.5 and PM10 declined with height slowly, it was 90% of 8 m concentration at the low layer, a little lesser than 90% at the middle layer, and 80% at the high layer, respectively. Under the condition of weak cold air weather, the concentration remarkably dropped with height, it was 70% of 8 m concentration at the low layer, and 20%―30% at the middle and high layers, especially the concentration of PM2.5 was even lower.     

黄土高原半干旱区非均一下垫面粗糙度分析

利用2007年4月17日-2008年4月16日兰州大学半干旱气候与环境观测站边界层气象塔的风速、 风向、 温度、 气压、 湿度等观测资料, 采用经典的廓线法和风速、 风向标准差法, 分别计算了中性大气层结下观测站下垫面粗糙度长度, 并得到了具有黄土高原地理特征的地表粗糙度及其时空变化特征。计算结果表明, 季节变化对粗糙度的影响幅度可达0.159 m, 空间非均一性对粗糙度的影响幅度可达0.155 m。测站附近粗糙度春季为0.017 m, 夏季为0.062 m, 秋季为0.065 m, 冬季为0.018 m。测站西北方向上游粗糙度春季为0.17 m, 夏季为0.22 m, 秋季为0.34 m, 冬季为0.05 m。测站东南方向上游粗糙度春季为0.11 m, 夏季为0.17 m, 秋季为0.19 m, 冬季为0.05 m。该站下垫面粗糙度计算宜选用风速为6±1.5 m·s-1, 风向变化30°范围内的数据。     

Uncertainty analysis of CO_2 flux components in subtropical evergreen coniferous plantation

We present an uncertainty analysis of ecological process parameters and CO2 flux components (Reco, NEE and gross ecosystem exchange (GEE)) derived from 3 years’ continuous eddy covariance meas-urements of CO2 fluxes at subtropical evergreen coniferous plantation, Qianyanzhou of ChinaFlux. Daily-differencing approach was used to analyze the random error of CO2 fluxes measurements and bootstrapping method was used to quantify the uncertainties of three CO2 flux components. In addition, we evaluated different ...     

日本虎斑猛水蚤在抑食金球藻中存活、发育和繁殖的实验研究

抑食金球藻(Aureococus anophagefferens)可以形成褐潮, 并对贝类、浮游动物等多种生物均能造成不利影响。为进一步探究抑食金球藻对浮游动物的影响, 本文以日本虎斑猛水蚤(Tigriopus japonicus)为实验生物, 研究抑食金球藻对日本虎斑猛水蚤摄食、存活、生长发育以及繁殖的影响。日本虎斑猛水蚤具有易于在实验室培养、生长周期短、雌雄异体等优点, 是海洋毒性污染物检测的模式生物。实验利用高效液相色谱分析方法, 在日本虎斑猛水蚤体内色素中检测到了抑食金球藻的特征色素19’-丁酰氧基岩藻黄素(But-fuco), 表明日本虎斑猛水蚤能够摄食抑食金球藻。当微藻生物量(相对碳含量)分别同为0.7 μg/mL和7.2 μg/mL时, 在抑食金球藻中无节幼体发育至桡足幼体及成体的存活率均高于以青岛大扁藻为饵料的对照组, 但无显著差异, 并且在前者中无节幼体的发育时间显著低于后者, 12 d内雌体的产卵次数与产卵量显著高于后者。结果表明, 日本虎斑猛水蚤在抑食金球藻中能进行正常的生命活动, 并且是首次报导的一种能够在抑食金球藻中正常摄食、生存、生长发育和繁殖的浮游动物。因此, 当褐潮发生时, 由于贝类幼体等生物会受到显著的不利影响, 日本虎斑猛水蚤等抗性较强的生物可能会成为优势种, 从而会影响浮游动物群落结构的组成, 进而可能会使整个海洋生态系统发生变化。本研究有助于全面了解褐潮对海洋生态系统的影响。     

黑石—大山盆地赋煤特征初步探讨

通过收集整理物探、钻探资料,分析了黑石—大山盆地煤层赋存规律,认为在盆地的斜坡地带煤层赋存较好,总结出含煤岩系及煤层的变化规律,指出下一步找煤方向——在黑石东—塔拉站区域及官地镇—大山林场区域。     

两种不同减排情景下21世纪气候变化的数值模拟

利用国家气候中心最新发展的气候系统模式BCC-CSM1.0模拟了相对于B1排放情景,两种不同减排情景(De90和De07,表示按照B1情景排放到2012年,之后线性递减,至2050年时CO_2排放水平分别达到1990和2007年排放水平一半的情景)对全球和中国区域气候变化的影响.结果表明:两种减排情景下模式模拟的全球平均地表气温在21世纪40年代以后明显低于Bl情景,比减排情景浓度低于B1的时间延迟了20年左右;尽管De90减排情景在2050年所达到的稳定排放水平低于De07情景,但De90情景下的全球增温在2070年以后才一致低于De07情景,这种滞后町能与耦合系统(主要足海洋)的惯性有关;至21世纪末,De90和De07情景下的全球增温幅度分别比B1情景降低了0.4和0.2℃;从全球分布来看,B1情景下21世纪后30年的增温幅度在北半球高纬度和极地地区最大,减排情景能够显著减少这些地区的增温幅度,减排程度越大,则减少越多;在中国区域,B1情景下21世纪末平均增温比全球平均高约1.2℃,减排情景De90和De07分别比B1情景降低了0.4和0.3℃,中国北方地区增温幅度高于南方及沿海地区,减排情景能够显著减小中国西部地区的增温幅度;B1情景下21世纪后30年伞球增温在冬季最高,De90和De07情景分别能够降低各个季节全球升温幅度的17%和10%左右.     

滨州沿海蒸发量与海盐产量的关系研究

海盐生产主要依靠自然蒸发,蒸发量预报对海盐生产有重要的指导作用。通过对1993—2007年滨州沿海蒸发量和海盐产量的分析,海盐产量的时间分布特征与净蒸发量基本一致,净蒸发量是影响海盐生产的决定性因素。分析蒸发量与气象要素之间的关系,分月建立了逐步回归方程,经检验可作为蒸发量的一种客观预报方法。     

豫北一次区域性大暴雨的数值模拟分析

利用NECP 1°×1°6 h再分析资料和WRF中尺度数值模式对2006年7月2-3日豫北区域性大暴雨过程进行数值模拟,并用模拟结果对该过程作中尺度分析.结果表明:暴雨中尺度系统发展和维持期间,基本上是强涡度区对应强辐合区,使得垂直对流运动发生发展,为强降水发生和持续提供了动力条件;θse值大小和实况降水强弱演变对应关系很好,θse值越大,实况降水越强,反之,实况降水越弱;豫北地区出现强降水时,水汽通量中心位于豫南且分布在西南急流轴上,豫中南部始终维持一条明显的水汽输送带,水汽被源源不断地输送到豫北地区;豫北地区处于明显的水汽辐合区,强辐合区有一自西向东的移动过程,与实况强降水过程演变趋势一致;大暴雨区域上空从低层到对流层顶层垂直螺旋度均为正值,且强降水时段与螺旋度最强时段对应关系很好,降水峰值与正螺旋度中心出现时间吻合.