多窗谱分析方法及其在全球变暖研究中的应用

多窗谱分析方法是一种低方差、高分辨的谱分析方法 ,尤其适合于非线性气候系统中高噪声背景下弱信号、时频演变信号的诊断分析。文中简要地介绍了多窗谱分析方法的基本原理 ,并将其用于近 1 5 0 a来全球及南、北半球温度变化的研究。结果表明 :(1 )在温度呈线性变暖的背景趋势下 ,北半球、全球年平均温度还具有显著的 40～ 70 a的准周期低频振荡 ,它们与变暖过程中的波动性密切相关 ;(2 )年代际振荡信号在北半球温度序列中也相当明显 ,南半球则存在多种低于 5 a尺度的显著振荡周期 ,半球或全球 ENSO振荡分量、QBO周期信号的振幅都具有缓变包络的特性 ;(3 )与传统功率谱估计、最大熵谱估计结果的对比表明 ,多窗谱分析方法方法得到的谱估计分辨力高 ,稳定性强。     

考虑湿度影响的城市气溶胶夜晚温度效应

本文利用一维非定常模式，研究了城市上空干、湿气溶胶粒子对夜间边界层温度的影响。结果表明，湿气溶胶粒子对低层大气有明显的升温作用，而对中上层大气则起降温作用，同时改变了贴地逆温层结构和边界层稳定度。     

陆面过程模式的改进及其检验

文中对陆面过程模式 (BATS)进行了改进 ,改进后的模式能较好地模拟地表物理量的年、季和日变化 ,它有两方面的特点 :采用热扩散方程模拟 7层土壤温度 ,模拟的温度可与实测值进行比较 ;在BATS的地表径流方案中 ,考虑了空间不均匀性的一般地表径流 (GVIC)过程 ,研究结果表明 :⑴模式能很好地模拟各层土壤温度的年、季和日变化。冬季土壤温度下层高于上层 ,而在夏季上层高于下层 ,这种上下层温度的转换时间大约在 4和 10月份 ,这与实测土壤温度的年变化非常一致。较为准确地模拟了各层土壤温度日变化的时滞效应。⑵用南京和武汉站的资料 ,将BATS地表径流方案模拟的地表水分分量与GVIC方案进行比较 ,BATS地表径流方案模拟的地表水分分量 ,与总水量的平衡相差较大 ,而GVIC模拟的效果相对较好 ,地表总水量基本上与降水总量达到了平衡     

A Statistical Model for Investigating Climatic Trend Turning Points

A two-phase trend model is presented to investigate the turning-point signals of evolution trend in long-term series of a climatic element. Based on nonlinear fitting, the revised model brings out more evident improvement of the linear model proposed by Solow et al. (1987). Both theoretical deduction and case calculation show that our version can search the turning point and period accurately and objectively. In particular it is fit for computer exploring the turning points in long-range records from stations covering a large area, thus avoiding subjective judgement by a usual drawing method.     

全球最优插值客观分析

主要叙述国家气象中心实时运行的全球资料同化系统中的客观分析方案，该方案采用最优插值统计方法，使用所有可以使用的各种类型有不同误差的观测资料和模式的６ｈ预报值，给出数值形式的全球分析值。在两年的业务运行中，为Ｔ４２中期数值预报谱模式提供了较好的初始场。     

乾安地区盐碱地显热通量的测量

文中给出了用大孔径闪烁仪在 2 0 0 0年生长季观测到的盐碱地区显热通量的主要结果 ,并初步计算了当地的水热平衡状况。结果表明 :乾安盐碱地区显热通量占净辐射量的百分比在干旱、非生长季达到 6 5 % ,在多雨、植被生长季仅为 11% ;显热通量因降水而明显降低 ,幅度与降水强度有关 ,反映了当地的气候和土壤特征。文中还把LAS的测量结果与传统的梯度法作了比较 ,结果基本一致。     

我国月平均气温场遥相关结构的观测研究

研究了我国月平均气温场的遥相关结构。指出，我国冬季月份的气温场的跷跷板特征不明显。夏季月季有明显的遥相关结构。给出了各月的遥相关模态及强度。指出，月平均气温遥相关表现为从南向东北，西北方向的辐射状。在１０５°Ｅ以东呈东北－西南向。在１０５°Ｅ以西呈西北－东南向。这种遥相关结构是由环流异常造成的。而且可以在区域的月平均气温场预报中使用。     

地震活动时序谱的涨落统计特征与地震活跃期

为寻求地震活动演化的统计判据，本文采用多项式拟合法展示地震时序谱之涨落谱，以分维函数法判断最小邻间距（NNS）分布的Poisson性，然后采用MKS无参量法判别涨落谱之统计稳定性，确定NNS分布的转变区，具体研讨了四川、云南若干震区地震活动时序谱的涨落统计分布，发现地震活跃期到来时NNS分布表现出非Poisson化的特征。进一步通过改变和调节时序数据样本集之震级下限，并逐段前推进行统计计算的方式进一步验证结果的可靠性，客观地确定了这些震区地震活动时序涨落谱统计特征的转变期，使根据该统计法判断地震活跃期的方法论渐趋完善。     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">In-situ</Emphasis> trace element analyses and Pb-Pb dating of zircons in granulite from Huangtuling,Dabieshan by LAM-ICP-MS

It is revealed by CL images that there are multi-stage growth internal structures of zircons in the Huangtuling granulite, including the inherited zircons, protolith zircons, sector and planar zone zircons and retrograde zircons. In-situ trace element compositions and Pb-Pb ages have been analyzed by LAM-ICP-MS. The sector and the planar zone domains show typical trace element characteristics of granulite zircon (low Th, U, Th/U, total REEs, clear negative Eu anomalies, relatively depleted HREE and small differential degree between MREE and HREE, etc.), indicating that they formed during granulite-facies metamorphism. The protolith zircons have trace element characteristics of crustal zircon (high Th, U, Th/U, total REEs and enriched HREEs, etc.). 12 analyzed spots on granulite-facies domains give a weighted mean ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb age of (2154±26) Ma (MSWD = 3.8), which is the best estimated age of granulite-facies metamorphism of this sample. The weighted mean ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb age of 5 analyzed spots on protolith zircon domains is (2714 ± 22) Ma (MSWD = 1.4), which represents the protolith forming time. The discovery of ca. 3.4 Ga inherited zircon indicates that there are Palaeoarchean continental materials in this area. The interpretation of formation conditions and the ages of zircons can be constrained by simultaneous in-situ analysis of trace elements and ages.     

A neural network approach for structural identification and diagnosis of a building from seismic response data

This work presents a novel procedure for identifying the dynamic characteristics of a building and diagnosing whether the building has been damaged by earthquakes, using a back‐propagation neural network approach. The dynamic characteristics are directly evaluated from the weighting matrices of the neural network trained by observed acceleration responses and input base excitations. Whether the building is damaged under a large earthquake is assessed by comparing the modal parameters and responses for this large earthquake with those for a small earthquake that has not caused this building any damage. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated through processing the dynamic responses of a five‐storey steel frame, subjected to different strengths of the Kobe earthquake, in shaking table tests. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.