Formation of an Interactive User-Oriented Forecasting System: Experience from Hydrological Application in Linyi, Eastern China

Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system (UIFS) emerging in recent years,the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system,which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target,the physical predictive and downscaling components,and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end.A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble;THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi,a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China.The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information.Although the TIGGE results provided by existing national/international operating models were independent from the user-end,the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process.     

北塘口近岸海域水环境质量时空变化分析及预测

通过分析2005年-2010年北塘口及其邻近海域水环境现场调查资料,同时结合历史数据进行对比,结果表明:(1)北塘口河口水体中COD和BOD5超标严重,整体污染态势以2008年为界呈现先降低后升高的趋势;邻近海域水体中无机氮为最主要污染物,其中硝酸盐是无机氮中最主要组成部分,但丰水期时亚硝酸盐氮和枯水期时铵盐氮所占比例逐年升高,说明区域水体氧化还原环境的潜在变化;N/P比值远高于正常的Redfield 16比值表明,区域水体已处于潜在严重P限制状态,同时,区域严重富营养化状态也极易诱导区域赤潮爆发;(2)丰水期陆源无机氮大量输入,使区域水体大部分时间超该区域功能区划要求的Ⅳ类海水水质标准,但底质沉积物环境相对比较稳定,各监测项目全部符合一类海洋沉积物质量标准要求;(3)丰水期和枯水期时,活性磷酸盐含量1983年-1998年分别增加了16.6倍和17.2倍,1998年-2010年由于监控措施的加强,极大地降低了P排放,丰水期和枯水期时活性磷酸盐含量最大增幅分别降到了5.84倍和2.33倍,无机氮含量增幅也呈现明显减小趋势,1983年-1998年丰水期和枯水期分别增加了8.37倍和13.7倍,而1998年-2010年丰水期和枯水期最大增幅也仅为3.52倍和3.28倍;整体看来水质和底质环境有缓和趋势,但潜在威胁仍然严重.     

苏、皖石炭系石灰岩的胶结作用

分析了苏、皖石炭系石灰岩的胶结作用。查明了胶结物的晶形、碳、氧同位素成分、发光特征及包体均一化温度。指出胶结作用主要发生在大气淡水补给较充分的含水层内,这与本区属海退成岩序列有关。     

Solar Wind and Chromospheric Network

A physical model of the transition region, including upflow of the plasma in magnetic field funnels that are open to the overlying corona, is presented. A numerical study of the effects of Alfvén waves on the heating and acceleration of the nascent solar wind originating in the chromospheric network is carried out within the framework of a two-fluid model for the plasma. It is shown that waves with reasonable amplitudes can, through their pressure gradient together with the thermal pressure gradient, cause a substantial initial acceleration of the wind (on scales of a few Mm) to locally supersonic flows in the rapidly expanding magnetic field trunks of the transition region network. The concurrent proton heating is due to the energy supplied by cyclotron damping of the high-frequency Alfvén waves, which are assumed to be created through small-scale magnetic activity. The wave energy flux of the model is given as a condition at the upper chromosphere boundary, located above the thin layer where the first ionization of hydrogen takes place.Among the new numerical results are the following: Alfvén waves with an assumed f ^-1 power spectrum in the frequency range from 1 to ⁴ Hz, and with an integrated mean amplitude ranging between 25 and 75 km s⁴, can produce very fast acceleration and also heating through wave dissipation. This can heat the lower corona to a temperature of 5× 10⁵ K at a height of h=12,000 km, starting from 5× 10⁴ K at h=3000 km. The resulting thermal and wave pressure gradients can accelerate the wind to speeds of up to 150 km s^-1 at h=12,000 km, starting from 20 km s^-1 at h=3000 km in a rapidly diverging flux tube. Thus the nascent solar wind becomes supersonic at heights well below the classical Parker-Type sonic point. This is a consequence of the fact that any large wave-energy flux, if it is to be conducted through the expanding funnel to the corona, implies the building-up of an associated wave-pressure gradient. Because of the diverging field geometry, this might lead to a strong initial acceleration of the flow. There is a multiplicity of solutions, depending mainly on the coronal pressure. Here we discuss two new (as compared with a static transition region model) possibilities, namely that either the flow remains supersonic or slows down abruptly by shock formation, which then yields substantial coronal heating up to the canonical 10⁶ K for the proton temperature.     

辽东地区连山关岩体锆石U-Pb一致线年龄特征及其意义

本文以连山关花岗岩体为例，指出该区古老花岗岩体2种锆石可以作出3组U-Pb一致线交点年龄，分析了这3组年龄间的相互关系及其所代表的意义，并提出一种可能求出岩体上限年龄的方法。     

The metallogenic mechanism of the sandstone-type copper deposits in the Chuxiong Basin,Yunnan Province

The sandstone-type Cu deposits in the Chuxiong Basin occur in the Cretaceous Gaofengsi Formation and the Maotoushan Formation and the orebodies are stratoid and lenticular in form, structurally controlled by their stratigraphical position. Ore structures are dominated by impregnated and striped ones. In addition, it has been observed that copper mineralization is controlled by water-discharge and deformation structures. Orebodies are commonly seen on the gently inclined limbs of the anticline, with the involution front. Copper mineralization shows a distinct zonation. S, Pb isotope and REE data suggest that the copper would stem from the country rocks and the sulfur largely from the lower strata. During diagenesis oxidized Cu-bearing brines derived from the upper parts and reduced brines from the lower parts are involved in metallogenetic reactions in the stress neutral plane, which is the key to the formation of copper deposits in the Chuxiong Basin.

     

天线相位中心偏差变化及改正模型对精密单点定位精度的影响

利用精密单点定位程序对IGS站的实测数据进行计算,结果表明:平面方向,天线相位中心偏差和变化对精密单点定位精度影响较小;高程方向,天线相位中心偏差可造成厘米级的影响,天线相位中心变化的影响约5 mm;相比相对天线相位中心改正模型,使用绝对相位改正模型具有更多优点,尤其用于高精度GPS授时其精度明显提高.     

Quantitative Assessment of Impacts of Regional Climate and Human Activities on Saline-alkali Land Changes： A Case Study of Qian＇an County, Jilin Province

Interdecadal and interannual variations of saline-alkali land area in Qian’an County, Jilin Province, China were comprehensively analyzed in this paper by means of satellite remote sensing interpretation, field flux observations and regional climate diagnosis. The results show that on the interannual scale, the impact of climate factors accounts for 71.6% of the total variation of the saline-alkali land area, and that of human activities accounts for 28.4%. Therefore the impact of climate factors is obviously greater than that of human activities. On the interdecadal scale, the impact of climate factors on the increase of the saline-alkali land area accounts for 43.2%, and that of human activities accounts for 56.8%. The impact of human activities on the variation of saline-alkali land area is very clear on the interdecadal scale, and the negative impact of human activities on the environment should not be negligible. Besides, changes in the area of heavy saline-alkali land have some indication for development of saline-alkali land in Qian’an County.     

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