Population,urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60% of the world's population and half of the global economy. Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth, industrial structure and resource allocation. In this study, the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development, respectively. The population, urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020–2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), and the following conclusions are drawn.(1) The population, urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways. The population will increase by 2%–8%/10 a during 2020–2050 and reach 5.0–6.0 billion in 2050. Meanwhile, the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%–7.5%/10 a and reach 49%–75%. The GDP will increase by 17%–34%/10 a and reach 134–243 trillion USD.(2) Large differences will appear under different scenarios. The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels, but the population size is comparatively smaller; SSP3 shows the opposite trend. Meanwhile, the economy develops slowly under SSP4, but it has a relatively high urbanization level, while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3) In 2050, the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries, and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double. Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, and will increase by more than 150% in the fastest growing countries. The economy will grow fastest in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.     

基于倾斜摄影测量的大比例尺三维测图技术

目前,城市大比例尺地形图更新主要采用全野外的测量方法,不仅耗费大量的劳动力,并且效率低下。旋翼机和倾斜摄影测量技术的快速发展,为城市大比例尺地形图的测绘与更新提供了全新的技术手段。本文以滕州市城区约10 km2的1∶500地形图测绘项目为例,采用大疆精灵4 Pro旋翼机进行数据获取,Smart 3D软件进行空三加密及三维建模,最后在EPS软件中进行三维测图,并对地形图成果进行了精度检核,验证了技术方案的可行性,为同类项目提供了有益参考。     

长江口咸潮入侵变化特征及成因分析

本文基于海洋站潮位观测数据、海平面变化影响调查信息以及长江口水文站径流量数据等,重点分析了2009?2018年长江口咸潮入侵的变化特征及其影响因素,分析结果表明:(1)长江口咸潮入侵季节变化特征明显。咸潮一般从每年的9?10月开始入侵,翌年4?5月结束。3月咸潮入侵次数最多,达12次。2009?2018年,长江口咸潮入侵次数和咸潮持续时间均呈下降趋势,2009年长江口咸潮入侵次数最多,达13次,时间均发生在10月至翌年的4月;咸潮持续时间年际变化较大,2011年咸潮入侵持续时间最长,累计为55 d。2015?2018年,咸潮入侵次数和入侵持续时间均明显减少,2018年没有监测到咸潮入侵过程。(2) 1?4月,长江口处于季节性低海平面期,且同期径流量少,但是受东亚季风影响,持续的增水过程使得增减水?径流量综合影响指数明显偏高,其中1月、2月、3月的影响指数分别为1.5、1.9和1.6,该时段长江口的咸潮入侵过程主要受增减水的影响。5?7月,长江口径流量明显增加,海平面?径流量综合影响指数均小于0,径流的作用强于海水上溯。8月,长江口径流量开始下降,虽然季节海平面较高,但是长江口呈现明显的减水过程,海平面?径流量和增减水?径流量的综合影响指数分别为0.1和?1.6,基本不会发生咸潮入侵。9月,长江口处于季节高海平面期,并且以增水为主,海平面?径流量和增减水?径流量的综合影响指数较大,分别为1.2和1.0,易发生咸潮入侵。10月、11月长江口海平面?径流量的综合影响指数分别为1.5和0.8,径流影响弱于海水上溯,易发生咸潮入侵。(3) 2009?2018年发生的48次咸潮入侵过程有2/3恰逢天文大潮。在某些年份长江口沿海基础海平面偏高,若持续增水恰逢天文大潮,则加剧咸潮入侵的影响程度。     

东北三省城乡协调发展格局及影响因素

以东北三省36个地区为研究对象,系统构建了城乡协调的指标体系,采用基尼系数、空间自相关和空间回归等方法探讨了2005年、2010年和2015年东北三省城乡协调的空间格局和影响机制。研究表明:① 东北三省城乡协调度的区域差异不断扩大且具有明显的空间集聚特征,但集聚程度趋于减弱。② 不同地区城乡协调水平变化各异。研究期内,大连市和锦州市一直处于高水平城乡协调状态,朝阳市长期处于低水平城乡协调状态。鹤岗市和七台河市城乡协调度位次上升最明显,哈尔滨市和辽源市城乡协调度位次下降最显著。③ 从空间格局来看,中级城乡协调区增多且向北移动,初级城乡协调区减少且向中部集中,“南北高,中间低”的城乡协调格局基本形成。与此同时,城乡协调的冷热点均不断收缩,空间极化效应趋于减弱。④ 城镇化和农业规模化经营是促进东北城乡协调发展的主要力量,工业化并未显著促进东北城乡协调发展且与城乡协调发展负相关,农业现代化经营对城乡协调发展有正向作用,交通因素在近些年的促进作用逐渐凸显,经济发展水平与信息化水平对东北城乡协调发展的作用还不明显。     

京津冀夏季强降水下冰云宏微观特征

根据Aqua MODIS 2级云产品和Cloudsat的2级产品资料,结合降水数据和MODIS L1B级辐射率数据,对发生在京津冀地区夏季的三次强降水过程中冰云的宏微观物理量的特征进行分析,并探究这些物理量和降水强度的关系。结果表明：在水平分布中,强降水过程中降水强度高值区内云相为冰云,冰云云顶高度在8~17 km,冰云粒子有效半径、冰云光学厚度、冰水路径分别最高可达60 μm、 150、 5 000 g?m^-2;冰云光学厚度、冰水路径、冰云云顶高度随降水强度增大而增大。在垂直分布中,冰云主要分布在3.5 km以上,发生强降水站点的冰云为深对流云,冰云粒子有效半径、冰水含量、冰云粒子数浓度分别最高可达150 μm、 3 000 mg?m^-3 、 500 L^-1;冰云粒子有效半径高值区存在于云层中下部,且随高度上升而减小,冰云粒子数浓度高值区存在于云层中上部,且随高度上升而增加,冰水含量高值区则存在于云层中部;冰云粒子有效半径、冰水含量、冰云粒子数浓度在9 km以上随降水强度增大而增大。     

小叶锦鸡儿(Caragana microphylla)群落蒸散发模拟

基于2016、2017年生长季原位气象监测数据,利用Shuttleworth-Wallace(S-W)模型模拟了科尔沁沙地主要固沙植物小叶锦鸡儿(Caragana microphylla)群落的蒸散发,对蒸散组分进行了拆分,并利用涡度相关系统对模拟蒸散发值进行了验证。结果表明:2016、2017年生长季小叶锦鸡儿群落蒸散发量分别为345.4、325.2 mm,土壤蒸发量分别为93.8、83.8 mm,植被蒸腾量分别为251.6、241.4 mm,土壤蒸发占总蒸散发分别为27.2%、25.8%。30 min尺度上模拟值与实测值一致性较高,模拟精度大体表现为晴天>阴天>雨天。持续干旱和降水后,小叶锦鸡儿蒸腾耗水规律明显不同,持续干旱时期小叶锦鸡儿保持较低的蒸腾耗水,且具有明显的"午休"现象,连续降水后小叶锦鸡儿"午休"消失,蒸腾耗水增强。饱和水汽压差是影响小叶锦鸡儿蒸散发的主要因子。     

城镇增长下的收缩：以武汉为例

首先从人口、经济、用地3个维度综合考察武汉市增长与收缩的全貌,并采用县区及街道2个尺度的数据定量描述了武汉市增长与收缩的特征与空间格局,发现武汉市下辖青山区、硚口区、汉阳区和蔡甸区存在局部较严重的收缩现象,空间上形成集聚,形态上呈“穿孔式”。进一步以青山区为案例,着重从资本视角探讨发生局部收缩的内在机制,发现其存在老龄化、少子化趋势,但局部收缩的主因是资本从产业部门的“逃逸”。     

粒子加速器中高精度丝线绝对位置测量技术研究

粒子加速器中采用振动线技术进行共架单元上多块磁铁的高精度预准直,需要将振动线代表的磁中心引出进行共架单元之间的相对准直。为了获取以振动线为代表的丝线高精度空间绝对位置,本文对采用近景摄影测量技术进行点、线位置求解的方法进行了研究。利用单相机多站位的方法进行拍摄,通过标定板提供的高精度控制点坐标,采用自标定光束法平差对相机进行标定,并提出将空间直线离散成空间2点进行直线整体精确求解。对标定板上由2点组成的模拟直线进行测量验证,并与标定板提供的理论值进行对比,结果显示空间直线位置获取精度优于5 μm。这表明了本文理论和方法的正确性,为进一步研究丝线高精度空间绝对位置测量打下了基础。     

River centerline extraction using the multiple direction integration algorithm for mixed and pure water pixels

The river centerline is a basic hydrological characteristic. Most prior studies have used remote sensing data to extract the river centerline from the open water region in a pure water pixel region. Extracting this type of river is relatively easy. However, extracting the centerline of a micro-river, which is mainly composed of mixed water pixels, is challenging. This paper presents a novel method, called the Multiple Direction Integration Algorithm (MDIA), to extract the river centerline using an image-enhancing method combined with river morphology. MDIA can be applied to regions mainly composed of pure water pixels, as well as to regions consisting of mixed water pixels in the index image. The method first calculates the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhances the river linear structure using a Hessian matrix. Second, a small window is constructed as a circular structural element. In the window region, the local threshold is automatically obtained using water-oriented clustering segmentation and prior river knowledge to judge the pixel type. After completing the river centerline extraction in the current window, the next detecting window is generated to continue judgment. The structural element automatically executes river centerline judgment until the entire river centerline is extracted. The Landsat 8 images of six regions with different geomorphologies were chosen to analyze the method’s performance. The test sites include high mountain region, low mountain region, plains region with farmland and a residential region. The experimental results show that the optimal threshold of the processing results ranged from 0.2 to 0.3. In this range, the user’s accuracy is 0.813 to 0.997, and the producer’s accuracy is 0.981 to 1. The MDIA effectively and correctly extracts the river network in mixed-pixel regions. The presented method provides an effective algorithm for river centerline extraction that can be used to expand and update river datasets and provide reliable river centerline data for relevant hydrology studies.     

An appearance‐preserving simplification method for complex 3D building models

The simplification of 3D building models to effectively reduce model complexity and improve rendering efficiency is an important component of 3D GIS. To reduce the data volume while preserving the model appearance, this article proposes a novel simplification method for complex 3D building models. Texture discontinuities are addressed by developing a new data model that records the mapping relation between the texture coordinates of each vertex and its neighboring triangles. The surface mesh of the building model is then segmented into regions, guided by topology and appearance. Finally, the mesh segmentation information is used to derive an improved error metric that considers both geometric and texture errors, and the texture coordinates are adjusted after each simplification operation. A series of comparative experiments alongside traditional methods demonstrates that our approach achieves a good balance between geometric fidelity and texture preservation, and produces simplified 3D building models with better visual quality.