粘性土剪切波速不确定性的统计分析

土体剪切波速具有显著的不确定性。基于全国地震安全性评价工作实测的粘性土的大量剪切波速数据,采用2χ检验方法研究了粘性土不同埋深的剪切波速的概率分布。依据所获得的概率分布,采用相应的统计方法给出了粘性土不同埋深的剪切波速的平均值、最大值、最小值、标准差和变异系数,并给出了95%参考值下限和上限,所获得的结果可用于检验场地剪切波速测试结果的可靠性和粗略估计无实测资料场地土的剪切波速。     

Snow distribution from SSM/I and its relationships to the hydroclimatology of the Mackenzie River Basin,Canada

The spatial and temporal distribution of snow cover extent (SCE) and snow water equivalent (SWE) play vital roles in the hydrology of northern watersheds. We apply remotely sensed Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data from 1988 to 2007 to explore the relationships between snow distribution and the hydroclimatology of the Mackenzie River Basin (MRB) of Canada and its major sub-basins. The Environment Canada (EC) algorithm is adopted to retrieve the SWE from SSM/I data. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 8-day maximum snow cover extent products (MOD10A2) are used to estimate the different thresholds of retrieved SWE from SSM/I to classify the land cover as snow or no snow for various sub-basins in the MRB. The sub-basins have varying topography and hence different thresholds that range from 10 mm to 30 mm SWE. The accuracy of snow cover mapping based on the combination of several thresholds for the different sub-basins reaches ≈ 90%. The northern basins are found to have stronger linear relationships between the date on which snow cover fraction (SCF) reaches 50% or when SWE reaches 50% and mean air temperatures, than the southern basins. Correlation coefficients between SCF, SWE, and hydroclimatological variables show the new SCF products from SSM/I perform better than SWE from SSM/I to analyze the relationships with the regional hydroclimatology. Statistical models relating SCF and SWE to runoff indicate that the SCF and SWE from EC algorithms are able to predict the discharge in the early snow ablation seasons in northern watersheds.     

自定心钢框架抗震性能研究进展

自定心(Self-Centering,SC)钢框架是一种新型的抗震结构体系。其中,预应力构件提供了结构在地震作用下的复位功能,角钢、摩擦件等构件则提供了耗能能力。主体结构在地震作用后可基本保持完好,并且无残余变形(或很小),附属构件的更换或修复也非常方便。介绍了自定心钢框架的构造和工作原理。节点试验、自定心抗弯钢框架(SC-MRF)、自定心中心支撑钢框架(SC-CBF)的动力试验结果表明,自定心钢框架具有良好的抗震性能和自复位能力,有望发展成为实用的结构形式。指出了自定心钢框架结构体系中需进一步研究的问题。     

foF2月中值太阳循环变化及单站谱模型研究

利用我国9个电离层观测站第21和22太阳周大约20年的f_oF₂月中值数据,分析太阳活动和地磁活动对电离层f_oF₂的影响,结果显示白天和夏季夜间f_oF₂和太阳黑子数R之间存在着明显非线性关系,并且随着纬度的降低逐渐增强．当回归分析加入地磁Ap指数时,多重回归模型与实测值误差进一步减小,说明同时考虑太阳活动和地磁活动的非线性影响能够更好地描述f_oF₂的变化．基于f_oF₂太阳黑子数R及地磁指数Ap之间的非线性统计关系,利用Fourier 级数建立9个单站谱模型,并与国际参考电离层IRI进行了比较,精度有一定提高．     

中国东部史前地震事件的的识别问题

中国东部地区气候湿润,物理化学风化作用强烈,加上地震周期长,人类活动频繁,地质事件遗迹难寻;另一方面,东部地区经济蓬勃发展,建(构)筑物和公众地震安全要求攀升.本文为解决这一日益尖锐矛盾作了相应综述和分析,并提出了一些建议:从经验预报统计样本局限性分析入手,综述史前地震识别标志和事件时序的分析研究现状,在此基础上提出了中国东部地区史前地震事件强化研究思路,即充分利用大规模考古发掘和工程所揭露的机遇,抢救性编录、分析.同时与考古、地质等相关部门联手,反演并重构全新世以来天然变形事件时序,用于弥补经验性预报的样本局限,从而科学预测地震趋势.作者的初步实践表明,这一思路是可行的,通过持之以恒的努力,有望达到预期目标.     

河北昌黎地震台地电阻率异常分析

河北昌黎台地电阻率EW测道2017年6-8月出现快速下降变化,经检测,观测系统工作正常。通过环境调研和辅助资料对比分析,发现该变化与降雨和粉丝厂干扰有一定关系。采用褶积滤波法去掉降雨干扰,EW测道地电阻率仍为下降趋势,说明该下降变化不能完全用降雨来解释,不排除是地震前异常变化的可能。     

云南农村土木结构房屋有限元抗震分析

根据2007年6月3日宁洱6.4级地震现场调查结果,对破坏较严重的土坯房建立了地震分析模型。对不同的开间、进深及檐口高的房屋,输入了3类场地超越概率为63%及超越概率为3%的地震波进行了有限元抗震分析。结果表明:墙厚影响不大,墙高的影响较大,墙高增加,破坏性增加;因此建议在满足使用功能的前提下,不增加墙厚,而减少层高对抗震更为有利,最后提出了相应的抗震加固措施。     

Experimental and modeling study on Cr(VI) transfer from soil into surface runoff

With the development of modern agriculture, large amount of fertilizer and pesticide outflow from farming land causes great waste and serious pollution to surface water and groundwater, and threatens ecological environment and even human life. In this paper, laboratory experiments are conducted to simulate adsorbed Cr(VI) transfer from soil into runoff. A two-layer in-mixing analytical model is applied to analyze laboratory experimental results. A data assimilation (DA) method via the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used to update parameters and improve modeling results. In comparison with the experimental data, DA updated modeling results are much better than those without the updating. To make predictions better, the inflation method with a constant inflation factor via DA method was used to compensate the fast decrease of ensemble spread partially related to filter inbreeding. Based on the used rainfall and relevant physical principles, the updated value of the incomplete mixing coefficient γ is about 14.0 times of the value of the incomplete mixing coefficient α in experiment 1 and about 7.4 times in experiment 2, while the difference between the flow rate of runoff and infiltration is not so large even after reaching stable infiltration condition. The results indicate the loss of Cr(VI) in soil solute is mainly due to infiltration, rather than surface runoff. With the increase of mixing layer depth, soil adsorption capacity will increase and the loss of soil solute will decrease. The study results provide information for reducing and even preventing the agricultural nonpoint source pollution.     

矩形钢筋混凝土水处理池震害预测方法及抗震对策

提出了矩形钢筋混凝土水处理池的一种震害预测方法,并对海口市米铺水厂中的水处理池进行了计算分析,论述了水处理池的对抗对策。     

Numerical simulation of the seismic behavior of self-centering steel beam-column connections with bottom flange friction devices

A new type of steel moment resisting frame with bottom ? ange friction devices (BFFDs) has been developed to provide self-centering capacity and energy dissipation, and to reduce permanent deformations under earthquakes. This paper presents a numerical simulation of self-centering beam-column connections with BFFDs, in which the gap opening /closing at the beam-column interfaces is simulated by using pairs of zero-length elements with compression-only material properties, and the energy dissipation due to f...