Strong ground motion prediction using macro–micro analysis method

The authors propose a new analysis method, called the macro–micro analysis method (MMAM) in a companion paper. (Earthquake Engng. Struct. Dyn., this issue) for strong motion prediction with higher resolution and accuracy. The MMAM takes advantage of the bounding medium theory to obtain optimistic and pessimistic estimates of the expected strong motion and the singular perturbation expansion that leads to an efficient multi‐scale analysis. The results of the numerical simulation with the MMAM are given as the sum of waves of low resolution covering the whole city and waves of high resolution for each part of the city. While the huge computation amount is reduced by the MMAM, the computation amount is huge still. For resolving this problem, this paper applies the finite element method with voxel element to numerical simulation tools after some numerical verification. To reproduce complicated material properties of surface soft deposits, fundamental hysteresis attenuation is implemented in the three‐dimensional simulation code. The proposed method is verified by carrying out the strong motion prediction with MMAM and comparing with measured data. In addition, the effect of three‐dimensional soil–structure and frequency component on the maximum velocity distribution, which is simulated by proposed method with high spatial resolution, is discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Macro–micro analysis method for wave propagation in stochastic media

This paper presents a new analysis method, called macro–micro analysis method (MMAM) for numerical simulation of wave propagation in stochastic media, which could be used to predict distribution of earthquake strong motion with high accuracy and spatial resolution. This MMAM takes advantage of the bounding medium theory (BMT) and the singular perturbation expansion (SPE). BMT can resolve uncertainty of soil and crust structures by obtaining optimistic and pessimistic estimates of expected strong motion distribution. SPE leads to efficient multi‐scale analysis for reducing a huge amount of computation. The MMAM solution is given as the sum of waves of low resolution covering a whole city and waves of high resolution for each city portion. This paper presents BMT and SPE along with the formulation of MMAM for wave propagation in three‐dimensional elastic media. Application examples are presented to verify the validity of the MMAM and demonstrate potential usefulness of this approach. In a companion paper (Earthquake Engng. Struct. Dyn., this issue) application examples of earthquake strong motion prediction are also presented. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Experimental and analytical studies on earthquake resisting behaviour of confined concrete block masonry structures

To improve the seismic performance of masonry structures, confined masonry that improves the seismic resistance of masonry structures by the confining effect of surrounding bond beams and tie columns is constructed. This study investigated the earthquake resisting behaviour of confined masonry structures that are being studied and constructed in China. The structural system consists of unreinforced block masonry walls with surrounding reinforced concrete bond beams and tie columns. The characteristics of the structure include: (1) damage to blocks is reduced and brittle failure is avoided by the comparatively lower strength of the joint mortar than that of the blocks, (2) the masonry walls and surrounding reinforced concrete bond beams and tie columns are securely jointed by the shear keys of the tie columns. In this study, wall specimens made of concrete blocks were tested under a cyclic lateral load and simulated by a rigid body spring model that models non‐linear behaviour by rigid bodies and boundary springs. The results of studies outline the resisting mechanism, indicating that a rigid body spring model is considered appropriate for analysing this type of structure. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Carbon and water cycling in a Bornean tropical rainforest under current and future climate scenarios

We examined how the projected increase in atmospheric CO₂ and concomitant shifts in air temperature and precipitation affect water and carbon fluxes in an Asian tropical rainforest, using a combination of field measurements, simplified hydrological and carbon models, and Global Climate Model (GCM) projections. The model links the canopy photosynthetic flux with transpiration via a bulk canopy conductance and semi-empirical models of intercellular CO₂ concentration, with the transpiration rate determined from a hydrologic balance model. The primary forcing to the hydrologic model are current and projected rainfall statistics. A main novelty in this analysis is that the effect of increased air temperature on vapor pressure deficit (D) and the effects of shifts in precipitation statistics on net radiation are explicitly considered. The model is validated against field measurements conducted in a tropical rainforest in Sarawak, Malaysia under current climate conditions. On the basis of this model and projected shifts in climatic statistics by GCM, we compute the probability distribution of soil moisture and other hydrologic fluxes. Regardless of projected and computed shifts in soil moisture, radiation and mean air temperature, transpiration was not appreciably altered. Despite increases in atmospheric CO₂ concentration (C_a) and unchanged transpiration, canopy photosynthesis does not significantly increase if C_i/C_a is assumed constant independent of D (where C_i is the bulk canopy intercellular CO₂ concentration). However, photosynthesis increased by a factor of 1.5 if C_i/C_a decreased linearly with D as derived from Leuning stomatal conductance formulation [R. Leuning. Plant Cell Environ 1995;18:339–55]. How elevated atmospheric CO₂ alters the relationship between C_i/C_a and D needs to be further investigated under elevated atmospheric CO₂ given its consequence on photosynthesis (and concomitant carbon sink) projections.     

The detectability of shallow slow earthquakes by the Dense Oceanfloor Network system for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) in Tonankai district,Japan

In order to understand the characteristics of shallow very low-frequency (VLF) events as revealed by recent ocean-floor observation studies, we perform a trial simulation of earthquake cycles in the Tonankai district by taking the characteristics of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake and assuming that slow earthquakes occur on numerous small asperities. Our simulation results show that the increase of moment release rate of shallower VLF events in the pre-seismic stage of a megathrust earthquake is higher than that of deeper VLF events. This increase may make leveling change due to VLF swarms detectable at Dense Oceanfloor Network system for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET). We also introduce the time series of hydraulic pressure data at DONET, comparing with the leveling change expected from our numerical simulation. Since leveling change due to shallower VLF swarms is so local as to be incoherent, removal of the moving-averaged data from the data stacked by four nearby observation points in the same node may be useful to detect the short-term local leveling change.     

Trends in the seasonal length and opening dates of a winter road in the western James Bay region,Ontario, Canada

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In northern Canada, winter roads are essential for communities. The duration of the winter road season depends on particular meteorological conditions. In this...     

On the divergence of the ionospheric electric field around the westward travelling surge

The pattern of the ionospheric electric field around the westward travelling surge (WTS) is theoretically studied. This is obtained by solving the current continuity equation at the ionospheric altitude for temporal and spatial development of the field-aligned current density modelled as the WTS phenomenon. The results show that the divergence of the ionospheric electric field is significantly changed depending on the dawn-to-dusk convection electric field E₀ because of non-uniformity in the ionospheric conductivity: the ionospheric electric field diverges in the upward current region (around the head of the WTS) when a westward electric field E₀ of 10 mV m⁻¹ is uniformly applied. On the other hand, the ionospheric electric field converges without E₀. From the observational inference that the ionospheric electric field converges around the head of the WTS, it is suggested that the WTS phenomenon may not be accounted for by the discharging process in the presence of the enhanced dawn-to-dusk convection electric field and non-uniform conductivity as was studied by previous authors.