青藏块体及周缘潜在震源与强震关系研究

利用1993－1999、1999－2001年青藏块体东北以及1991－2000年中国大陆GPS水平运动年速率资料，基于单一力源模型，反演获得了青藏块体及其周缘地区2000－2001年10次地震的震前资料反映的潜在震源参数，所得力源中心位置距实际震中的距离相对较小，其中2000年景泰5．9、2001年宁蒗5．8、昆仑8．1及格尔木3次5．7、5．8级地震均在50km左右；2000年兴海6．6、2001年年施甸5．9、永胜6．0级地震不到100km；2001年雅江6．0级地震最远（121km）。此外，1999－2001年青藏块体东北缘地区的反演结果表明，沿东昆仑构造带的昆仑山口－达日及库玛断裂向东至甘东南、甘青交界区域，可能仍存在潜在震源。     

受摄限制性三体问题平动点线性稳定性的判断条件及在Robe问题的应用

给出了受摄限制性三体问题平动点线性稳定性的一个判断条件．条件只与平动点切映像的特征方程系数有关，使用方便．用判断条件，讨论了Robe问题平动点在阻力摄动下的线性稳定性，得到了Hallan等给出的Robe问题平动点在阻力摄动下的线性稳定范围．并改进了Giordanoc等的结果．     

THREE-WAY METHODS FOR THE CALIBRATION OF CHROMATOGRAPHIC SYSTEMS:COMPARING PARAFAC AND THREE-WAY PLS

For the calibration of chromatographic systems,different methods can be used.One class of methodsutilizes three-way approaches.The calibration problem is stated in such a way that the decompositionof a three-way array can serve for the prediction of retention on new stationary phases.Two three-way approaches are presented:the Unfold-PCA and PARAFAC models.The theory ofboth methods is presented and the differences are highlighted,the main difference being that PARAFACis a trilinear decomposition whereas Unfold-PCA is not.Both three-way methods are evaluated on asmall data set consisting of retention measurements of eight solutes at six mobile phase compositions onsix stationary phases.The differences in performance of the two models are minor,For calibration purposes,two variants of the methods are discussed:three-way PLS and an extensionof PARAFAC.Again the theory and differences between the two methods are explained.The predictiveperformance of the two methods is compared using the same data set as earlier.The differences inpredictive performance,however,are minor.Both methods are capable of predicting 98% of thevariation in the test sets.Yet,there are other considerations when comparing methods than predictiveperformance,e.g.the quality of the predictions.     

腾冲火山区地表垂直形变分析

对腾冲火山区1998～2000年的3期垂直形变资料进行了分析，进而利用相关资料得出与计算有关的参数，再用多元Mogi模型反演了岩浆房的位置和大小，所得出的结果与地震层析反演结果基本相似。分析反演结果，认为火山区可能存在多个岩浆房，并有岩脉相通。     

MULTI-DIMENSIONAL NUMERICAL STUDIES OF CONVECTION-RELATED STELLAR PROBLEMS

1　IntroductionManybottlenecksinthetheoreticalstudyofstellarevolutionarisefromthelackofunder standingofsomehighlycomplicatedprocessesthatcannotbetreatedwithanalyticaltech niques .Alargeportionoftheseprocessesisrelatedtohydrodynamics,particularlyconvec tion .Theapplicationofmultidimensionalnumericalcomputationstotheinvestigationofthesedifficultproblemshasmadegreatprogressinrecentyears .Here ,weprovideasurveyoftherecentnumericalstudiesofconvectionrelatedproblems.Theobjectiveistoassistthosewhoar…     

月际地震趋势的数值预测法

考虑到目前地震月趋势以模糊用语进行预测的缺陷,本文提出采用数值预测法能更好地适应社会需求. 这种方法是基于地震有自律现象,通过建立非线性的数学模型予以实现的. 模型试验结果表明,我国大陆地震活动存在有7~8个月左右的循环结构,逐月比较预测与实况的震级误差平均低于0.2级,因而该方法比经验性预报更适宜社会的实际利用.      

REE Characteristics of the Kalatongke Cu-Ni Deposit, Xinjiang, China

On the basis of the study on the REE geochemistry of the ore minerals and host rocks of the Kalatongke Cu-Ni deposit, Xinjiang, it is indicated that the major ore minerals, sulfides, were sourced from the host mafic-ultramafic magma. Characterized by low REE content of sulfide, such a Cu-Ni sulfide deposit occurring in the orogen is obviously different from that on the margin of the craton. Because the mafic-ultramafic rocks from the Cu-Ni sulfide deposit occurring in the orogen is water-rich and the REEs of some sulfides show a particular "multiple-bending" pattern, which suggests coexistence of multiple liquid phases (fluid and melt), the sulfide melt possibly contains a great deal of hydrothermal fluids and increasingly developed gases and liquid-rich ore-forming fluids after the main metallogenic epoch (magmatic segregation stage).     

海冰动力学数值方法研究进展

在海冰动力学数值模拟和预测研究中,人们将海冰视为连续介质分别建立了欧拉坐标下的有限差分（FD）方法、拉格朗日坐标下的光滑质点流体动力学（SPH）方法、欧拉和拉格朗日坐标相结合的质点网格法（PIC）,近年来又发展了基于非连续介质的颗粒流（GF）方法。对以上几种海冰动力学数值方法的特点和适用性进行了讨论,结果表明：FD、PIC和SPH方法可适用于中长期海冰动力学数值模拟,但SPH方法的计算效率需进一步提高;GF方法在不同尺度下的海冰动力学数值模拟中的计算精度均有很强的适用性,但目前较适用于小尺度下海冰动力学基本特性的数值试验研究,计算时效还不能满足实际海冰数值模拟和预测的要求。为进一步提高海冰动力学模拟的精度和适用性,在不同时空尺度下分别发展与其相适应的数值方法是必要的。     

Simulations of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation by the Atmospheric General Circulation Model of the Beijing Climate Center

The performance of BCC (Beijing Climate Center) AGCM 2.0.1 (Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.0.1) in simulating the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (TIO) is examined in this paper.The simulations are validated against observation and compared with the NCAR CAM3 (Community Atmosphere Model version 3) results.The BCC AGCM2.0.1 is developed based on the original BCC AGCM (version 1) and NCAR CAM3.New reference atmosphere and reference pressure are introduced into the model.Therefore,the origi...     

What Kind of Initial Errors Cause the Severest Prediction Uncertainty of El Nino in Zebiak-Cane Model

With the Zebiak-Cane(ZC)model,the initial error that has the largest effect on ENSO prediction is explored by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP).The results demonstrate that CNOP-type errors cause the largest prediction error of ENSO in the ZC model.By analyzing the behavior of CNOP- type errors,we find that for the normal states and the relatively weak El Nino events in the ZC model,the predictions tend to yield false alarms due to the uncertainties caused by CNOP.For the relatively strong El Nino events,the ZC model largely underestimates their intensities.Also,our results suggest that the error growth of El Nino in the ZC model depends on the phases of both the annual cycle and ENSO.The condition during northern spring and summer is most favorable for the error growth.The ENSO prediction bestriding these two seasons may be the most diffcult.A linear singular vector(LSV)approach is also used to estimate the error growth of ENSO,but it underestimates the prediction uncertainties of ENSO in the ZC model.This result indicates that the different initial errors cause different amplitudes of prediction errors though they have same magnitudes.CNOP yields the severest prediction uncertainty.That is to say,the prediction skill of ENSO is closely related to the types of initial error.This finding illustrates a theoretical basis of data assimilation.It is expected that a data assimilation method can filter the initial errors related to CNOP and improve the ENSO forecast skill.