Water resources and ecological conditions in the Tarim Basin

Temporal sequential analyses of the hydrological observational data in the Tarim Basin over the last forty years revealed an annual increase of 2× 10⁷m³ in the water quantities at the three headstreams of the upper courses and an annual decrease of 3 × 10⁷m³ in the water flow from Alaer, which is on the upper main stream. A prediction of the trends indicates that there can be severe situations under which intermittent water interceptions occur. By means of approximate estimations on vegetative water consumption through phreatic evaporation combined with a quota assessment, the ecological water demands required to maintain the ecological environment in the mainstream area over the three different targeted years of 2005, 2010 and 2030 are defined as standing at 31.86 × 10⁸m³, 36.27 × 10⁸m³ and 41.04 × 10⁸m³ respectively. Ecological fragility indexes are established on the basis of the selection of environmental sensitivity factors. Rational evaluations give proof that the lower reaches of the mainstream have already turned into zones where their ecological environments are gravely damaged. Multi-objective optimization should be conducted and protective schemes be framed within the threshold limits of the bearing capacities of water resources and the environment     

Remote sensing analysis of desert vegetation and its landscape changes: The case in middle reaches of Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang, China

Based on remote sensing information sources including B/W aerial photos of 1983, pseudo-color aerial photos of 1992 and JERS-1/OPS VNIR image of 1996, vegetation types of Yingbazha, in the middle reaches of the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang, China are mapped using ARC/INFO and related software. The changes in vegetation areas and distribution conditions are analyzed. As a result of natural and human influences, vegetation changes have temporal and spatial characteristics. According to the principles of landscape ecology and geographical information science, the landscape changes are indicated. Moreover, the remote sensing and GIS techniques are integrated to study vegetation and its landscape.     

2001年1月2 6日印度古杰拉特(Gujarat)Ｍem>Ssub>7.8地震时空破裂过程

从全球数字地震台网的长周期记录中，选择了震中距小于90的27个台站的54个P波震相和44个S波震相资料．首先，用波形反演方法确定了2001年1月26日印度古杰拉特(Gujarat)ＭS7.8地震的地震矩张量、震源机制、震源时间函数和时空破裂过程等震源参数．通过矩张量反演，并根据Kutch Mainland断层的走向、地震烈度的空间分布、余震震源的空间分布和震害的空间分布，确认2001年1月26日印度古杰拉特ＭS7.8地震的发震断层的走向为92、倾角为58、滑动角为62，即一走向近东-西向、断层面向南倾斜、以逆冲为主的左旋-逆断层．这次地震所释放的地震矩为3.51020 Nm，矩震级ＭW＝7.6．然后，借助合成地震图，采用频率域求谱商的方法，得到了依赖于台站方位的27个P波震源时间函数、22个S波震源时间函数以及平均的P波震源时间函数和S波震源时间函数．对震源时间函数的分析表明，这次地震是一次连续的破裂事件，开始比较急遽，但结束比较迟缓，总持续时间约19 s．最后，以所提取的P波和S波震源时间函数为资料，采用时间域的反演技术得到了断层面上滑动的时空分布．滑动量在断层面上的静态分布表明，断层面上的最大滑动量约为7 m．断层面上的最大应力降约为30 MPa，平均应力降约为7 MPa．滑动量大于0.5 m的区域在走向方向长85 km，在断层面倾斜方向宽约60 km(相应地，在深度方向约51 km)．破裂向东扩展约50 km，向西扩展约35 km．滑动量大于0.5 m的区域的主要部分呈椭圆形，其长轴取向与断层滑动方向一致．表明此区域破裂扩展的方向即是断层错动的方向．这种现象对于走滑断层情形是多见的，但对逆冲断层情形却少见．断层面上初始破裂点以东、以上部分面积大于初始破裂点以西、以下部分的面积，这是破裂非对称性的表现，表明破裂具有自西向东、自下向上单侧破裂的特征．从滑动率随时空变化的快照可以看出，滑动率在第4 s达到最大值，此时滑动率约为0.2 m/s，滑动基本上发生在破裂起始点及其周围．从第6 s开始，起始点的破裂基本结束，破裂开始向外围扩展．破裂向西的扩展速度明显小于向东的扩展速度．在第15 s，这种环形的扩展基本结束．自16 s以后，主要是一些零星的破裂点分布在破裂区的外围．从滑动量随时空变化的快照看，破裂自起始点开始后，逐渐向四周扩展．主要的破裂(滑动量大于5 m的区域)在6～10 s，具有明显的自西向东、向上的单侧破裂特征．在第11～13 s，破裂的西端向西、向下有所扩展．整个破裂过程持续约19 s．在整个破裂过程中的平均破裂速度约为3.3 km/s．      

中国与美国西部平均构造剪应力值的比较

提出了一种估计一个地区平均构造剪应力值的方法．用这种方法，选取哈佛大学公布的1977～1999年共15 993次地震的矩张量数据，估计了美国西部19个地区、中国和邻区43个地区(每个地区为1010范围)的平均环境剪应力值．结果表明，美国西部南加州西部海域和南加州应力最高，达13.7和12.0 MPa，然后向北、向南和向东逐渐递减，但最小也达8.7 MPa，是最高值的63%．中国新疆西北部地区和西藏察隅地区应力水平最高，达17.2和12.9 MPa，比美国高．中国的华北、云南、四川、台湾和美国南加州的应力水平差不多．中国南北地震带的应力水平为13 MPa左右，比南加州略高．两个重要地区的平均剪应力值分布图，提供了地学的基本数据．这些结果可为研究地震活动的大背景提供依据，对研究强地面运动参数(如峰值加速度及反应谱等)的衰减关系也是有用的．      

Predicting average annual groundwater levels from climatic variables: an empirical model

On the basis of one-dimensional theoretical water flow model, we demonstrate that the groundwater level variation follows a pattern similar to recharge fluctuation, with a time delay that depends on the characteristics of aquifer, recharge pattern as well as the distance between the recharge and observation locations. On the basis of a water budget model and the groundwater flow model, we propose an empirical model that links climatic variables to groundwater level. The empirical model is tested using a partial data set from historical records of water levels from more than 80 wells in a monitoring network for the carbonate rock aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. The testing results show that the predicted groundwater levels are very close to the observed ones in most cases. The overall average correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed water levels is 0.92. This proposed empirical statistical model could be used to predict variations in groundwater level in response to different climate scenarios in a climate change impact assessment.     

Improved treatments for evaluating horizontal magnetic components through the 3-D FDM in E -polarization induction problems

To improve the accuracy of the numerical evaluation through the 3-D finite difference method, the surface boundary conditions are added to modify the old program. The author has tested the new program by making calculations for the model constructed by Wanamaker, et al (1984). The comparison between the numerical results obtained from this paper and those by Wannamaker, et al (1984) indicates that a pronounced improvement is realized in the evaluation of the horizontal magnetic components. Moreover, better calculations for the vertical magnetic components are also obtainable by using the new program.     

大型维歇特地震仪的记录特征及其在地震速报中的作用

大型维歇特地震仪自德国引进南京地震台已近70年。本文简要叙述了该仪器的性能；并以南京地震台的大型维歇特地震仪的记录为例，介绍了该仪器在300-2000km范围内的记录特征，回顾了该仪器在地震速报中所起的历史作用。     

2001年11月14日新疆-青海交界8.1级地震

简要介绍了2001年11月14日新疆－青海交界8．1级地震的预测情况，给出了中、美、日等对此次地震的震源参数测定和震源机制，以及余震的分布和加卸载响应比随时间的变化。进而对震区近期地震趋势进行预测。