Heat waves in the United States: definitions, patterns and trends

High temperatures and heat waves are related but not synonymous concepts. Heat waves, generally understood to be acute periods of extreme warmth, are relevant to a wide range of stakeholders because of the impacts that these events have on human health and activities and on natural environments. Perhaps because of the diversity of communities engaged in heat wave monitoring and research, there is no single, standard definition of a heat wave. Experts differ in which threshold values (absolute versus relative), duration and ancillary variables to incorporate into heat wave definitions. While there is value in this diversity of perspectives, the lack of a unified index can cause confusion when discussing patterns, trends, and impacts. Here, we use data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System to examine patterns and trends in 15 previously published heat wave indices for the period 1979–2011 across the Continental United States. Over this period the Southeast region saw the highest number of heat wave days for the majority of indices considered. Positive trends (increases in number of heat wave days per year) were greatest in the Southeast and Great Plains regions, where more than 12 % of the land area experienced significant increases in the number of heat wave days per year for the majority of heat wave indices. Significant negative trends were relatively rare, but were found in portions of the Southwest, Northwest, and Great Plains.     

Climate change in arid lands and Native American socioeconomic vulnerability: The case of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe

The case of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe exemplifies tribal vulnerabilities as a result of climate change. Preliminary socio-economic data and analysis reveal that the tribe’s vulnerability to climate change is related to cultural and economic dependence on Pyramid Lake, while external socio-economic vulnerability factors influence adaptive capacity and amplify potential impacts. Reduced water supplies as a consequence of climate change would result in a compounded reduction of inflows to Pyramid Lake, thus potentially impacting the spawning and sustenance of a cultural livelihood, the endangered cui-ui fish (Chasmistes cujus). Meanwhile, limited economic opportunities and dwindling federal support constrain tribal adaptive capacity. Factors that contribute to tribal adaptive capacity include: sustainability-based values, technical capacity for natural resource management, proactive initiatives for the control of invasive-species, strong external scientific networks, and remarkable tribal awareness of climate change.     

A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction

There are two main approaches for dealing with model biases in forecasts made with initialized climate models. In full-field initialization, model biases are removed during the assimilation process by constraining the model to be close to observations. Forecasts drift back towards the model’s preferred state, thereby re-establishing biases which are then removed with an a posterior lead-time dependent correction diagnosed from a set of historical tests (hindcasts). In anomaly initialization, the model is constrained by observed anomalies and deviates from its preferred climatology only by the observed variability. In theory, the forecasts do not drift, and biases may be removed based on the difference between observations and independent model simulations of a given period. Both approaches are currently in use, but their relative merits are unclear. Here we compare the skill of each approach in comprehensive decadal hindcasts starting each year from 1960 to 2009, made using the Met Office decadal prediction system. Both approaches are more skilful than climatology in most regions for temperature and some regions for precipitation. On seasonal timescales, full-field initialized hindcasts of regional temperature and precipitation are significantly more skilful on average than anomaly initialized hindcasts. Teleconnections associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation are stronger with the full-field approach, providing a physical basis for the improved precipitation skill. Differences in skill on multi-year timescales are generally not significant. However, anomaly initialization provides a better estimate of forecast skill from a limited hindcast set.     

Atmospheric entry profiles from the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit and Opportunity

Accelerometer measurements made by Spirit and Opportunity during their entries through the martian atmosphere are reported. Vertical profiles of atmospheric density, pressure, and temperature with sub-km vertical resolution were obtained using these data between 10 and 100 km. Spirit's temperature profile is ∼10 K warmer than Opportunity's between 20 and 80 km. Unlike all other martian entry profiles, Spirit's temperature profile does not contain any large amplitude, long wavelength oscillations and is nearly isothermal below 30 km. Opportunity's temperature profile contains a strong inversion between 8 and 12 km. A moderate dust storm, which occurred on Mars shortly before these two atmospheric entries, may account for some of the differences between the two profiles. The poorly known angle of attack and unknown wind velocity may cause the temperature profiles to contain errors of tens of Kelvin at 10 km, but these errors would be an order of magnitude smaller above 30 km. On broad scales, the two profiles are consistent with Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) pressure/temperature profiles. Differences exist on smaller scales, particularly associated with the near-isothermal portion of Spirit's profile and the temperature inversion in Opportunity's profile.     

Stony meteorite characterization by non‐destructive measurement of magnetic properties

Abstract— Four parameters of low‐field magnetic susceptibility (bulk value, frequency dependence, degree of anisotropy, and ellipsoid shape) have been determined for 321 stony meteorites from the National Collection of Canada. These parameters provide a basis for rapid, non‐destructive, and accurate meteorite classification as each meteorite class tends to have a distinct range of values. Chondrites show a clear trend of increasing bulk susceptibility from LL to L to H to E within the 3.6 to 5.6 logχ (in 10⁻⁹ m³/kg) range, reflecting increasing Fe‐Ni metal and Fe‐Ni sulfide content. Achondrite values range in logχ from 2.4 to 4.7 and primitive achondrites from 4.2 to 5.7. Frequency dependence is observed, using 19,000 Hz and 825 Hz, with variations in strength among meteorite classes and individual specimen dependence ranging from 1–25.6%. Degrees of anisotropy range from 1 to 53% with both oblate and prolate ellipsoids present. The aubrite class is marked by high degrees of anisotropy, low bulk magnetic susceptibility, and prolate fabric. Camel Donga is set apart from other eucrites, marked by higher bulk susceptibility, degree of anisotropy, and magnitude of oblate ellipsoid shape. The Shergotty, Nakhla, and Chassigny (SNC) meteorites show subclass distinction using frequency dependence and Chassigny is set apart with a relatively strong oblate fabric. The presence of both strong oblate and prolate fabrics among and within meteorite classes of chondritic and achondritic material points to a complex, multi‐mechanism origin for anisotropy, more so than previously thought, and likely dominated by impact processes in the later stages of stony parent body formation.     

Halite and stable chlorine isotopes in the Zag H3–6 breccia

Abstract— Zag is an H3‐6 chondrite regolith breccia within which we have studied 14 halite grains ≤3 mm. The purity of the associated NaCl‐H₂O brine is implied by freezing characteristics of fluid inclusions in the halite and EPMA analyses together with a lack of other evaporite‐like phases in the Zag H3–6 component. This is inconsistent with multi‐stage evolution of the fluid involving scavenging of cations in the Zag region of the parent body. We suggest that the halite grains are clastic and did not crystallize in situ. Halite and water‐soluble extracts from Zag have light Cl isotopic compositions, δ³⁷Cl = ?1.4 to ?2.8%. Previously reported bulk carbonaceous chondrite values are approximately δ³⁷Cl = +3 to +4%. This difference is too great to be the result of fractionation during evaporation, and instead, we suggest that Cl isotopes in chondrites are fractionated between a light reservoir associated with fluids and a heavier reservoir associated with higher temperature phases such as phosphates and silicates. Extraterrestrial carbon released at 600 °C from the H3–4 matrix has δ¹³C = ?20%, consistent with poorly graphitized material being introduced into the matrix rather than indigenous carbonate derived from a brine. We have also examined 28 other H chondrite falls to ascertain how widespread halite or evaporite‐like mineral assemblages are in ordinary chondrites. We did not find any more to add to Zag (H3‐6) and Monahans (H5), which suggests that such highly soluble phases were not usually preserved on the parent bodies.     

Transport of ionizing radiation in terrestrial-like exoplanet atmospheres

The propagation of ionizing radiation through model atmospheres of terrestrial-like exoplanets is studied for a large range of column densities and incident photon energies using a Monte Carlo code we have developed to treat Compton scattering and photoabsorption. Incident spectra from parent star flares, supernovae, and gamma-ray bursts are modeled and compared to energetic particles in importance. Large irradiation events with fluences of 10⁶-10⁹ erg cm⁻² at the conventional habitable zone can occur at a rate from many per day (flares from young low-mass parent stars) to ∼100 per Gyr (supernovae and gamma-ray bursts). We find that terrestrial-like exoplanets with atmospheres thinner than about 100 g cm⁻² block nearly all X-rays, but transmit and reprocess a significant fraction of incident γ-rays, producing a characteristic, flat surficial spectrum. Thick atmospheres (?100 g cm⁻²) efficiently block even γ-rays, but nearly all the incident energy is redistributed into diffuse UV and visible aurora-like emission, increasing the effective atmospheric transmission by many orders of magnitude. Depending on the presence of molecular UV absorbers and atmospheric thickness, up to 10% of the incident energy can reach the surface as UV reemission. For the Earth, between 2×10⁻³ and 4×10⁻² of the incident flux reaches the ground in the biologically effective 200-320 nm range, depending on O₂/O₃ shielding. For atmospheres thicker than ∼50 g cm⁻² in the case of pure Rayleigh scattering and ∼100 g cm⁻² in the case of O₂/O₃ absorption, the UV reemission exceeds the surficial transmitted ionizing radiation. We also discuss the effects of angle of incidence and derive a modified two-stream approximation solution for the UV transfer. Finally, we suggest that transient atmospheric ionization layers can be frequently created at altitudes lower than the equilibrium layers that result from steady irradiation and winds from the parent star. We suggest that these events can produce frequent fluctuations in atmospheric ionization levels and surficial UV fluxes on terrestrial-like planets.     

The component masses of the cataclysmic variable V347 Puppis

We present time-resolved spectroscopy and photometry of the double-lined eclipsing cataclysmic variable V347 Pup (=LB 1800). There is evidence of irradiation on the inner hemisphere of the secondary star, which we correct for using a model to give a secondary-star radial velocity of   K _R= 198 ± 5 km s⁻¹  . The rotational velocity of the secondary star in V347 Pup is found to be   v sin  i = 131 ± 5 km s⁻¹  and the system inclination is   i = 840 ± 23  . From these parameters we obtain masses of   M ₁= 0.63 ± 0.04 M_⊙  for the white dwarf primary and   M ₂= 0.52 ± 0.06 M_⊙  for the M0.5V secondary star, giving a mass ratio of   q = 0.83 ± 0.05  . On the basis of the component masses, and the spectral type and radius of the secondary star in V347 Pup, we find tentative evidence for an evolved companion. V347 Pup shows many of the characteristics of the SW Sex stars, exhibiting single-peaked emission lines, high-velocity S-wave components and phase-offsets in the radial velocity curve. We find spiral arms in the accretion disc of V347 Pup and measure the disc radius to be close to the maximum allowed in a pressureless disc.