The 1988 Orange River flood, Upington Region, Northwestern Cape Province, RSA

This paper describes aspects of the 1988 Orange River flood. The Orange River is a perennial, bedrock-controlled river which experienced severe flooding (flood peak: 8300 m³ s^-1) during February-April of 1988. This flood resulted in the loss of life and damage in excess of $126 million. Negligible bank erosion took place in the main channel margins due to the stabilizing effect of tree-lined banks. In contrast, areas removed from the channel margin were characterized by erosion and deposition. Within the confines of the natural flood channels, macroturbulence gave rise to scour holes which sometimes amalgamated into large erosion fields acres in extent. In many cases scour holes were present but macroturbulence-originating obstacles were not, and it is suggested that these were removed by flood-erosion processes. In some instances amalgamation of scour-hole trails (orientated down-current) led to the formation of steep-sided flood channels. Deposition took the form of large sandsheets constructed from fluvial-dune fields and braid-bar accumulations. Post-flood winds reworked some of the deposited sand into aeolian dunes.     

Refraction and scattering into a sandy ocean sediment in the 30-40-kHz band

To observe sound penetration into a sandy sediment, a buried acoustic receiving array was insonified by a wide band sound source carried by a remotely operated vehicle. A slanting array design was used to avoid scattering artifacts. This design overcame possible problems in previous experiments, in which scattering artifacts from the array structure could be mistaken for a propagating wave. The experiments took place in a sandy sediment off the West coast of Florida, as part of the sediment acoustics experiment, which is a multidisciplinary effort to study sediment acoustics. A coherent angle, speed, and height estimation process searched through a four-dimensional search space, of source height and elevation angle, wave speed, and propagation delay to find spherical acoustic wave fronts. Three main categories of waves were found: first refracted, dominant nonrefracted and evanescent. Later acoustic arrivals, a fourth category, remain to be analyzed. Their relative intensities effectively characterize the sediment penetrating acoustic energy. The acoustic sound pressure level of penetrating waves below the critical grazing angle was found to be greater than expected for a flat interface.     

Numerical modelling of the application of capillary barrier systems for prevention of rainfall-induced slope instability

Acta Geotechnica - The most common cause of slope instability is intense or sustained rainfall, which may induce reduction in soil suction, and thus, shear strength. Capillary barrier systems...     

Understanding Place Attachment to the County in the American Great Plains

The American Great Plains is a region dominated by a flat, treeless, semiarid environment that has challenged population settlement for over 140 years. As railroad companies successfully attracted pioneers to settle the land, state governments established hundreds of counties. Following Jeffersonian ideals, many of the counties were small in area so they could better serve the local agricultural‐based population. When states established these counties, they envisioned that the population would continue to grow and the Great Plains would become the breadbasket of North America. Unfortunately that did not materialize. A succession of hardships combined with serious environmental constraints has discouraged large‐scale settlement in the region. Many counties reached their maximum population in the early 1900s and their totals have decreased ever since (in some counties by as much as 60 percent to 80 percent). This has led a number of government officials to consider consolidating counties much like school districts have been combined. Using Logan and Gove counties in western Kansas as a case study, our purpose is to understand how attached people are to the county in which they live. Employing multiple methods, we gathered information about how different segments of the population regard their local county. We learned that changing computer technology and the Internet has the biggest impact on peoples' attachment to the county seat.     

Discovery of a new blue quasar: SDSS J022218.03–062511.1

We report the discovery of a bright blue quasar: SDSS J022218.03–062511.1. This object was discovered spectroscopically while searching for hot white dwarfs that may be used as calibration sources for large sky surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey or the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope project. We present the calibrated spectrum, spectral line shifts and report a redshift of z = 0.521±0.0015 and a rest‐frame g‐band luminosity of 8.71×10¹¹ L_⊙. (© 2015 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Inertial oscillations near the coast of Nova Scotia during CASP

Abstract

Analysis of current, temperature and salinity records in the nearshore region of the Scotian Shelf during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP), reveals that the inertial wave field is highly intermittent, with comparable amplitudes in the surface and deep layers. Clockwise current energy in the surface layer is concentrated at a frequency slightly below inertial, consistent with Doppler shifting by the strong mean current and/or straining by the mean flow shear, whereas the spectral peak in deep water is at the local inertial frequency. Clockwise coherence is high (γ² ≥ 0.8) horizontally over the scale of the array (60 km × 120 km) and in the vertical, with upward phase propagation rates of 0.15–0.50 × 10^?12 ms^?1, inversely proportional to the local value of the Brunt Väisälä frequency. Clockwise current energy decreases in the onshore direction and appears to be completely inhibited on the 60‐m isobath.

A case study of the response to the CASP IOP 14 storm indicates that the inertial waves may be generated by a strong wind shift propagating onshore at a speed of 10 ms^?1. On the eastern side of the array (Liscomb line), clockwise current oscillations propagate onshore in the surface layer at a rate (8.1 ± 0.9 m s^?1) comparable with the speed of the atmospheric front, while waves in the pycnocline move offshore at a lower (internal wave) speed (1.8 m s^?1). Furthermore the temperature and salinity fluctuations are in (out) of phase with longshore current in the deep (surface) layer. However, on the western side of the array (Halifax line), the inertial waves are more complex. A sharp steepening of phase lines at the coast indicates that the phase speed of clockwise current oscillations is considerably reduced and the evidence for offshore propagation of internal waves is less clear. The discrepancies between observations on the two lines suggest that the internal wave field is three‐dimensional.

Results of simple mixed‐layer models indicate that the inertial response near the surface is sensitive to the accurate definition of the local wind field, but not to certain model physics, such as the form of the decay term. The observations also show some qualitative similarities with models for two‐dimensional response to a moving front (e.g. Kundu, 1986), but the actual forcing terms are more complicated, based on IOP 14 wind measurements.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Sensitivity of multi-gas climate policy to emission metrics

The Global Warming Potential (GWP) index is currently used to create CO₂-equivalent emission totals for multi-gas greenhouse targets. While many alternatives have been proposed, it is not possible to uniquely define a metric that captures the different impacts of emissions of substances with widely disparate atmospheric lifetimes, which leads to a wide range of possible index values. We examine the sensitivity of emissions and climate outcomes to the value of the index used to aggregate methane emissions using a technologically detailed integrated assessment model. The methane index is varied between 4 and 70, with a central value of 21, which is the 100-year GWP value currently used in policy contexts. We find that the sensitivity to index value is, at most, 10–18 % in terms of methane emissions but only 2–3 % in terms of the maximum total radiative forcing change, with larger regional emissions differences in some cases. The choice of index also affects estimates of the cost of meeting a given end of century forcing target, with total two-gas mitigation cost increasing by 7–9 % if the index is increased, and increasing in most scenarios from 4 to 23 % if the index is lowered, with a slight (1 %) decrease in total cost in one case. We find that much of the methane abatement occurs as the induced effect of CO₂ abatement rather than explicit abatement, which is one reason why climate outcomes are relatively insensitive to the index value. We also find that the near-term climate benefit of increasing the methane index is small.